Hello dear show notes readers!

This week, the rubber meets the road—literally! Sean dives into stories from his travels to industrial sites where rubber is produced, giving a glimpse into the gritty reality of this essential material's manufacturing. Meanwhile, Dan shares insights into how he’s using AI to streamline operations for his online business, exploring how cutting-edge tools can optimize tasks. Along the way, we venture into the fascinating world of memetics, behavioral finance, and the ways AI might just change everything.

Companies Discussed:

• SLB (formerly Schlumberger)
• Michelin
• Bridgestone
• Cabot
• Orion Engineered Carbons
• Parker
• Green Tweed
• Freudenberg 
• CQC (C Quest Capital)
• IBM
• Decker’s
• Crocs 

Books Recommended:

• "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe – Referenced in the context of societal cycles and potential future upheavals.
• "Range" by David Epstein – Discussed in the context of generalists versus specialists.
• "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" by Peter Zeihan – Referenced in discussions about global supply chains and geopolitics.
• "The Material World" by Ed Conway – Mentioned in relation to resource management and global economics.
• "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki – Touched upon in the discussion of meme investing and crowd behavior.

Hello show notes readers!

Welcome to another episode of Unqualified Advice. We ask some hard questions this week. Did all high school guidance counselors suck? Should Dan have been a Rabbi? What are the physics of the shaggy dog van from dumb and dumber in a torrential downpour? Listen in as we ponder these important questions, and join us in media res as Sean describes a duh moment he had while reading Howard Marks' September 2024 memo Shall we Repeal the Laws of Economics? We're pretty sure the answer is no, but why don't you join us and see what you think?

Companies Discussed

• Oaktree Capital Management (Howard Marks)
• Uber
• McDonald's
• Taylor Swift (kinda a company?)
• StubHub
• Ferrari
• IBM
• Oscar Mayer
• Apple 
• RadioShack
• Clarkson's Farm 
• Anduril Industries 
• Coca-Cola

Books Recommended

• "The Psychology of Money" by Morgan Housel – Referenced during a discussion about the paradox of wealth and perception, specifically regarding people buying expensive items for external validation.

• "The Comfort Crisis" by Michael Easter – Mentioned in relation to the idea of seeking discomfort to grow, and how modern life is often too comfortable.

 

00:00 Intro and Theme 01:27 Discussing Howard Marks and Some Serious Questions 03:44 Understanding Price Dynamics and Market Forces 06:06 The Role of Auctions in Pricing 08:30 Consumer Behavior and Pricing Perceptions 14:26 Pondering the Physics of the Shaggy Dog Van 16:08 Stated vs. Revealed Preferences in Economics 22:09 Did All Guidance Councilors Suck? Should Dan Have Been A Rabbi? 26:39 Zooming Out on Inflation & Zooming in on Tariffs 32:33 What Will "Made in the USA" Look Like Tomorrow?

Hello show notes reader!

It's been one of those 50 hour weeks with 40 hours of meetings. You know what I mean? No, well we talk about it this week, along with dreams of bugging-off to an island somewhere. 

In fact, I'm gonna bug-off and turn the rest of these notes over to GPT, while I have a beer:

In this episode of Unqualified Advice, Daniel Hatke and Sean Filipow cover a mix of personal anecdotes, fitness challenges, and deeper discussions on technology and the future. Daniel recounts his Labor Day weekend, sharing details about his family’s activities and a recent sprint duathlon he completed. The duo dive into a conversation about data centers, AI development, and power consumption, sparked by a recent Invest Like the Best episode featuring Gavin Baker. They explore the challenges of energy efficiency in data centers and Tesla's advancements in AI and autonomous driving. The hosts also reflect on the complexities of climate change, renewable energy, and the material requirements for a sustainable future. The episode wraps up with musings on travel plans to the Philippines and Vietnam, the frustrations of dynamic pricing, and potential domestic and international business ventures.

Cheers,

Sean

Companies Discussed

• Tesla
• Waymo
• Shake Shack
• Kaiser
• Bucky’s (#IYKYK)

Chapter List

00:00 Introduction and Labor Day Weekend 03:42 Preparing for an Ironman Race and Vaccine Considerations for the Philippines 06:00 Vaccines for the Philippines and Monkeypox Concerns 11:27 Exploring the Investment Potential of AI Technology 17:14 Challenges of Materials Extraction for Renewable Energy 18:26 Dan Explains What Goes Down in a Datacenter 24:52 Advancements in Self-Driving Technology 27:31 Electric Cars and Transportation 30:52 Kiosks: Customer Experience and Efficiency 34:58 Dynamic Pricing and Consumer Behavior 38:29 Planning for International Travel 42:12 Planning Sessions and Work Efficiency 44:45 Travel Plans and Exploring New Destinations 46:58 Dreaming of a Different Lifestyle

Hello dear show notes reader,

What makes a toddler brave? How should you think about the scale of massive infrastructure projects and their impact on the surrounding community? What should you consider when dealing with your cranky boss?

Are we just getting old? 

Tune in as we mull over these questions and more in this episode of Unqualified Advice. 

Chapters

00:00 Busy Weeks and Sleep Regression 02:02 Pre-K and the Bravery of Children 05:09 Water Usage and Eli Lilly's Facility 13:01 Chicago Experience and Real Estate Market 19:18 Government Stimulus and the Housing Market 19:55 The Challenges of the Housing Market 21:10 Tax Incentives for Home Builders 25:36 The Influence of Dystopian Literature 32:39 Workplace Dynamics: Conflicting Directives 53:24 Overcoming the 'That's Not My Job' Mentality 56:24 Finding Team Members Who Go Beyond Their Assigned Roles 59:58 Interview Strategies for Identifying Proactive and Collaborative Individuals

Hello Show Notes readers,

Since Dan and Sean went to college together, you could imagine they know how to have a few drinks and still have an intelligent converstaion. This week, that hypothesis gets tested with an Unqualified Happy Hour. Perhaps it should be and Overqualified Happy Hour, given the hosts' history. 

Listen in as Dan shares a news of a recent embarrasing event, Sean talks about the physchology at play during a market crash and rebound, and the two debate what book they should read next. 

Next time on Unqualified Advice, you can look forward to the hosts (sober this time) delving into their first ever listener question. If you have a question for Sean and Dan to discuss On Air, reach out to them on Twitter (#Bird4Eva) @SlowVSM or @DanielHatke. 

Chapters

00:00 Accidental Entry: From Duathlon to Half Ironman 03:28 Market Blip and Economic Psychology 06:26 Training Challenges and Preparation 12:14 The Role of Vibes in the Economy 24:50 Erroneous Execution of Cell Orders 25:36 The Ocean's Eleven Style Breakdown 26:34 The Challenges of Affording a Home in Southern California 31:02 The Evolution of Selling Out and the Tall Poppy Syndrome 33:28 Negative People Sound Smart 36:01 Strategies for Success and Preventing Resentment 39:13 Cynicism and Resentment in Society 40:12 The Role of Detractors and Negative Drivers 41:14 Exploring the Concept of a Hive Mind 42:37 The Impact of Collective Thinking 47:42 Generational Cycles and Society 53:46 What's in Our Queue?

 

Book Reccomendations

1. "Amusing Ourselves to Death" by Neil Postman

   • Discusses the impact of television and media on public discourse, contrasting the dystopian visions of George Orwell and Aldous Huxley.

2. "The Age of Wonder" by Richard Holmes

   • Explores the history of science during the late 18th and early 19th centuries, focusing on the lives of pioneering scientists and explorers.

3. "Trust" by Hernan Diaz

   • A novel set in the 1920s and 1930s, exploring themes of wealth, power, and the construction of history through the lens of complex characters in New York and Switzerland.

4. "The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy" by William Strauss and Neil Howe

   • Examines generational cycles in American history, predicting societal trends and shifts based on recurring patterns.

5. "Stiff: The Curious Lives of Human Cadavers" by Mary Roach

   • A humorous and informative exploration of what happens to human bodies after death, delving into the science and history of cadavers.

6. "Bad Therapy" by Abigail Shrier

   • Focuses on the pitfalls of certain therapeutic practices, especially those affecting young people, with broader implications for management and human behavior.

 

Hello show notes readers,

Thanks for tuning into another episode of Unqualified Advice. We went all over the place this time. Here is what you can look forward to in this episode:

Chapters

00:00 Olympics and Movie Theater Experiences 08:04 Book Recommendations and Generational Cycles 19:34 The State of the Economy and Interest Rate Cuts 27:53 The Impact of Policy on Inflation and Liquidity 31:18 The Concept of Being a 'Townie' 35:04 The Naming of Generations and Its Significance 36:33 The Development and Potential of AI Technology 40:09 The Importance of Bubbles in Innovation 44:06 The Challenges Faced by IT Professionals during the CrowdStrike Incident 51:00 The Unintended Consequences of Legislation

 

Companies discussed

• NBC/Peacock - Mentioned in relation to the Olympics broadcast and the iconography used for sports like beach volleyball.
• AMC Theatres - Discussed in the context of the movie-going experience, including concessions like Pepsi vs. Coke.
• Regal Cinemas - Compared with AMC in terms of concessions offered (Pepsi vs. Coke).
• Pepsi - Discussed as the concession choice at some movie theaters and in certain towns.
• Coca-Cola (specifically Cherry Coke) - Preferred by Sean over Pepsi at movie theaters.
• Epic Pass (Vail Resorts) - Mentioned in relation to the Pepsi contracts at certain mountain towns.
• Microsoft - Discussed in the context of IT issues, particularly with email and cybersecurity.
• CrowdStrike - The main focus of a cybersecurity incident that impacted IT systems.
• Symantec and McAfee - Mentioned in relation to antivirus and security software operating at the kernel level.
• BNY Mellon and JPMorgan - Referenced in relation to the flow of government money and financial systems.
• Fastenal, MSC, Grainger, Snap-on - Industrial supply companies mentioned in the context of economic conditions and sales trends.

“Find at least one person who is just really, really good at calling out your bullshit. Cause we all do it.” -Daniel Hatke

Hello show notes readers,

We covered two primary topics in this episode. One intuitively seems to be very important and valuable, Strategy Time. The second has been this Clark Kent’s yellow sun, my Personal Board of Directors.

Why are they so helpful?

Bokonon on the Quest for Understanding

Tiger got to hunt,

Bird got to fly,

Man got to sit and wonder, "Why, why, why?"

Tiger got to sleep,

Bird got to land,

Man got to tell himself he understand.

 

As always, thanks for listening. 

 

-Sean 

Hello dear listener,

This episode was originally recorded in June but it's release was delayed by, we'll say, a bit of weather. Sadly, I need both internet and power to make the publishing magic happen. Dan and I appreciate your patience. Anyway, onto the show notes!

Hearts,

Sean

 

Recommendations

Dan recommends Factfulness by Hans Rolling, saying "if you want to feel good about the world that we live in and the time that you live in, backed by data, read the book." Sean plans to check it out. 

Sean picked up Red Notice by Bill Browder based upon Dan's recommendation. Other than some boring details on company valuations in the post-Soviet era, it is a gripping story of evolution of the Russian society and a deep look into the problems lurking within its government. 

We referenced The Fourth Turning is Here, again. We heartily recommend this book and are currently working through it's predecessor The Fourth Turning. Expect a very special episode about this book, sometime before the first Tuesday in November. 

 

Updates

We asked "will Keith Gill (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) get sued?" We said yes. The answer is yes. We  missed what he's done with $CHWY. 

Elon got paid!

Interest rate futures markets, the unreliable beasts they are, have moved to predicting two cuts in 2024. 

Welcome to another episode of Unqualified Advice. Dan has been off traveling to visit his team in North Carolina, so we're releasing something we had conveniently prepared for such an occasion.    Back in January, we sat down and made a bunch of predictions for things we think are important to the American Economy. Now we are sharing them with you, so you can see how we did.   An Incomplete List of Topics Covered

• Prostate health.
• How the language used by the Federal Reserve can have a significant impact on the markets.
• No recession in 2024.
• The potential impact of tariffs and the strength of the U.S. dollar on industries like energy and manufacturing.
• The power of belief and manifestation in shaping outcomes. 
• The ESG market's risks and challenges: we're due for a scam.
• Regenerative farming practices.
• The carbon footprint of electric vehicles (not as good as you think)

This week, Sean and Dan breakdown their thoughts on investing actively vs. passively. 

00:00 Introduction and Discussion on Investing Preferences 12:46 Passive Investing: Investing in Diversified Portfolios 26:47 Active vs. Passive Investing 27:44 The Benefits of Passive Investing 30:10 The Importance of a Healthy Cash Position 32:18 Active Investing in Specific Industries or Market Opportunities 36:00 The Magnetism of Active Investing 43:09 The Potential Risks of a Purely Passive Market 46:46 The Possibility of Outperforming the Market with Active Investing 52:10 The Potential Drawbacks of Passive Investing 56:35 The Impact of Passive Investing on the Market 01:04:19 The Challenges of Outperforming the Market as an Active Manager 01:06:11 The Emergence of Alternative ETFs 01:13:05 Debating the Effectiveness and Sustainability of Passive Investing

Here's some of the material we consumed to help prep for this episode, for those who want to dig deeper:

AQR Capital Management. (2018, April). Active and passive investing — the long-run evidence. Alternative Thinking. https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Alternative-Thinking/Alt-Thinking-2Q18-Active-vs-Passive-Investing.pdf

Faber, M., & Asness, C. (2024, April 5). Episode #527: Cliff Asness - Timely & Timeless Investment Wisdom. Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. https://mebfaber.com/2024/04/05/cliff-asness/

Faber, M., & Bessembinder, H. (2024, May 3). Episode #532: Hendrik Bessembinder - do stocks outperform T-bills?. Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. https://mebfaber.com/2024/05/03/hendrik-bessembinder/

Faber, M., & French, K. (2024, May 1). Episode #530: Professor Kenneth French on risk, return, and rationality. Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog. https://mebfaber.com/2024/04/19/kenneth-french/

Gabaix, X., & Koijen, R. S. (2021). In search of the origins of financial fluctuations: The inelastic markets hypothesis. National Bureau of Economic Research, 28967. https://doi.org/10.3386/w28967

Hoffstein, C., & Green, M. (2022, May 29). S05E01: Michael Green - The active impact of passive investing. Flirting with Models. https://www.flirtingwithmodels.com/2022/05/29/s05e01-the-active-impact-of-passive-investing/

Mandelbrot, B., Hudson, R. L., & Olazabal, J. (2019). The misbehavior of markets: A fractal view of financial turbulence. Hachette Audio.

Ritholtz, B., & Einhorn, D. (2024, February 8). Masters in Business: David Einhorn. Bloomberg.com. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2024-02-08/masters-in-business-david-einhorn-podcast

Taleb, N. N. (2016). Fooled by randomness. Random House.