Upside: European Tech & VC Weekly

Upside - the weekly pod exploring the real news behind the clickrage affecting European venture, startups and investing.

Hosts: Dan, Mads, Lomax, Andrew

04:56 - Amazon, Robots & Europe’s Automation
• Amazon aims for 75% robotised operations by 2033 in the US.
• Automation = productivity growth, not mass layoffs.
• Europe: >80% of warehouses still manual; Germany highly automated.
• Debate: displacement vs. growth; Europe can't fall behind.

18:50 - AI & Europe’s Industrial Revolution
• Can Europe capture AI’s value?
• Most AI projects fail due to lack of readiness, not tech.
• The human in the loop - Underinvestment in training and integration.
• Discussion: China racing ahead; Europe needs tech-smart leadership.

39:04 - UK AI Sandbox - What a waste of sand?
• New UK initiative to test AI under relaxed rules.
• Unlike fintech, AI isn’t “gate-kept” - barriers are procurement and deployment.
• Use NHS as testbed for AI admin tools to cut waitlists.

50:13 - EU “28th Regime” - Directive or Law?
• Proposed single EU startup entity (like a Delaware C-Corp).
• Regulation = uniform law; Directive = messy national versions.
• Local tailoring inevitable - but harmonisation could save €2B/yr in admin costs.

59:54 Deal of the Week - Comind
• Comind raises $102M Series A (Plural) — non-invasive brain-computer interface.
• Mentions: Revolut ($75B raise rumour), Wayve ($2B fundraise).

Upside #62 w/ Dan and Mads from SuperSeed plus Ben from Bullhound Capital

Key Topics
• Fundraising climate in European for VC - friend or foe?
• Goldman Sachs’ Industry Ventures acquisition - getting into alternatives?!
• Nobel Prize in Economics: Why does this matter to VC and Europe?
• What's fuelling the AI bubble headlines? Hype vs fundamentals
• China’s physical AI advantage - have they won AI already?
• Europe does have a strategic path
• Deal of the Week: ecoRobotix

03:01 – VC Fundraising Outlook
• Post-2021 pullback continues.
• Flight to top brands: most LP capital going to top 30 funds.
• More government/EU money = policy strings.
• Low DPI but potential relief from Klarna IPO.
• Market consolidation = stronger survivors.

07:08 – LP Sentiment
• Big AI rounds crowding noise → more space for overlooked gems.
• Growing interest in early-stage, AI, defence, resilience.

09:23 – GS Buys Industry Ventures - Why?
• Traditional finance deeper in VC.
• Secondary liquidity engine + huge data moat (700 funds / 10k co’s).
• Smart strategic move for Goldman.

12:36 – Nobel Prize in Economics?
• Aghion & Howitt’s work proves innovation drives growth — VC validated.
• Missing pieces: state de-risking, catch-up growth, China’s dual strategy.

20:42 – AI “Bubble” or Just Massive Bets?
• OpenAI’s trillion-dollar compute plans (NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Oracle).
• OpenAI vs Google monetisation war.
• Circular financing risk with negative margins down the stack. Will retail be left holding the baby?
• Long-term value in vertical AI with data moats.

31:11 – China’s Physical AI Advantage
• Western Execs return “shaken” from dark factories.
• BYD rising fast.
• China deploying “good enough” open-source AI into everything.

39:24 – Europe’s Playbook
• JP Morgan’s $1.5T “security & resiliency” plan shows capital *can* be mobilised.
• Europe’s challenge: reallocate pension/government capital to productive tech.

45:43 – Deal of the Week: ecoRobotix
• Swiss physical AI agri-robotics.
• Precision spraying cuts pesticide use 95%.
• €90M Series D led by Highland Europe & McWin.

Voices: Nicholas Nelson (Archangel) • Dan • Lomax • Mads

TL;DR

• Defence-first wins on capability and returns; primes are partners and channels.
• Helsing: buys platforms/revenue for access; layers AI—different from Anduril’s buy-TRL-tech + scale model.
• Beyond drones: biggest gap/opportunity is tactical EW.
• Procurement: more fast lanes (SOF, pilots); primes getting easier to work with.
• AI: real profits exist (esp. NVIDIA), but value chain is fragile; expect a correction, not a collapse. Picking winners > timing.

02:40 — Why defence-first
Beats dual-use on outcomes and returns; lifelong focus.

04:32 — Definitions
Customer = MoDs + primes; aim: lethality/readiness and societal resilience. Beware “defence-washing”.

06:37 — What’s hot
Avoid herd to drones only; counter-UAS, EW, human performance, deception, survivability.

08:23 — Helsing buys Grob
Neo-prime play: new co buys legacy manufacturing for platform access.

10:42 — The two Defence M&A playbooks
Anduril: buys mid-TRL tech (Area-I, Dive LD/Ghost Shark, Adranos) → scales via brand/distribution.
Helsing: buys finished products/revenue (Mittelstand) → immediate customers; then add AI.

14:25 — Prime status & capital
Distribution + capital to AI-enable platforms.

17:47 — Roll-up vs build
Narrative “build”; execution “roll-up + build”.

19:47 — Drones & ‘drone wall’
Layered answer: blunt with drones, hold with conventional forces.

21:49 — The big one: Electronic Warfare (EW)
NATO underinvested; tactical EW is the unmet need; legacy kit is ’80s/’90s.

24:54 — Startup wedge
Put EW at the edge (drones/aircraft/fixed) → near-term wins.

26:33 — Baltic realism
History, 2007–09 Estonia cyber, current incursions; likely Kaliningrad corridor.

28:19 — Founder mistakes
Tech ≠ win by itself; experience + gov engagement matters; US analogue: top funds have IC/SOF DNA.

30:43 —  Are there really only a “Few buyers?”
Many real buyers inside a MoD/DoD (services, sub-units, innovation orgs).

36:23 — Sovereignty & US primes
US strategics will buy abroad; Europe balancing autonomy with jobs/exits.

41:07 — Starlink vs IRIS²
Starlink’s lead + cadence; IRIS² slower—watch timelines vs evolving threats.

47:18 — AI bubble?
Warnings vs fundamentals; self-funded capex; real profits.

49:37 — NVIDIA ramp
$4.4B (2023) → $73B this year; growth tempers multiples.

51:48 — AI Circular money & margins
Cursor → Anthropic → hyperscalers → NVIDIA; only NVIDIA mints big margins; margin pressure coming (new semis, China, SLMs).

53:12 — Picking beats timing
Dot-com lesson: Cisco losses vs Amazon wins.

54:19 — Capacity vs efficiency
Capex likely useful long-run, but open source squeezes costs.

55:52 — Platform risk
Frontier labs moving up-stack; vertical AI + trust + data = moat.

58:58 — Base case
Likely correction (30–50%) at some point; timing is unknowable (not investment advice).

🎧 Upside Ep #60 — “White Gold, Red Ink, and Reinventing VC”

Hosts: Dan · Lomax · Andrew
Recorded: Oct 2, 2025

01:00 – Quick News Highlights

• 🇺🇸 US Shutdown — $15B GDP loss per week; political theatre more than fiscal risk.
• 🇬🇧 Labour Party Conference — Starmer’s 13% approval, OBR to cut productivity; £10B headroom could flip to £20B deficit.
• 💰 UK recovers $5B from Bitcoin fraud (FT)
• 🔐 UK demands Apple backdoor again (TechCrunch)
• 🤖 OpenAI $500B valuation (FT)
• 🌉 EF exits Europe, launches “Bridge” Bay Area program (Sifted)
• 🎬 Sora 2 video model - Sam A videos. Bwahaha 

10:00 – EF’s US Pivot

EF closes Paris/Berlin, focusing on US founder “sheep-dipping.”
 Validation of EU founder quality but reminder: growth capital + urgency still American advantages.

17:00 – Germany’s Lithium Discovery

• 43M tons found in northern Germany — ~$600B in-ground value.
• DLE extraction (from brines) cleaner but unproven.
• Europe could cover 50 years of demand, yet permitting, costs, and NIMBY issues loom.
• Real win may lie in refining and gigafactory build-out, not mining alone.

22:00 – London’s IPO Decline

• London slips to #23 globally; IPO volume down 69% ($248M → $42M).
• Causes: low equity appetite, no tech weighting, over-regulation, pension conservatism.
• Fixes: incentivise pension investment, cut stamp duty, attract tech listings.

27:00 – Should Governments Bail Out?

• UK guarantees £1.5B loan to JLR (post-cyberattack).
• Critics: moral hazard, no cyber-insurance, political pork-barrelling.
• Compare: Germany’s bold €500B public investment plan.
• Consensus: backstop only if government gets warrants + drives reform.

41:00 – Reinventing VC

• US mega-firms become RIAs, investing across public/private assets.
• New players: Evantic ($400M), Striker (10 LPs × 10 startups).
• AI models now beat humans at picking founders.
• Europe lags — still relationship-driven, early-stage remains “artisanal.”

51:00 – Deals of the Week

• 💥 Concept Ventures – £88M pre-seed fund (UK)
• 🧪 Periodic Labs – $300M seed (ex-DeepMind/OpenAI)
• 💼 Creator Fund – €80M pan-EU deep tech
• ⚖️ Legora – raising $100M @ $1.7B
• 🧠 Black Forest Labs – $4B valuation talks
• 🦄 Cleo, Tide hit unicorn status

57:00 – Defence & Tech

• Highlights from London Resilience Conference: surge in EU defence startups, faster US build cycles, procurement reform lagging.
• MI6’s real “Q” reveals gadget: surveillance dog poo.

59:00 – Wrap

Europe’s week in contrast: industrial ambition (Germany), structural pain (London), creative churn (VC & AI). Momentum builds — even amid the mess.

Yes we're European VCs so YES we're talking AI and defence! But there's still more of the pie to eat, so dig in.

02:00 🇬🇧 UK in the doldrums
* Little to no growth (1.5% vs US 3.8%).
* Inflation stubborn at 3.8%.
* 130k jobs lost since last budget.
* Housing, Heathrow, HS2 — stalled megaprojects.

06:30 📉 Structural weaknesses
* UK pensions: only 4.4% in UK equities (vs 50% in past).
* FTSE = $2.8T — smaller than Apple alone.
* R&D spend at 1.7% vs US 3.5%.

10:00 🚀 Reasons for optimism
* Revolut hits 70m users, Canary Wharf HQ, £3bn UK investment.
* UK AI leaders: Wayve, ElevenLabs, Synthesia, Cleo.
* Nvidia building Europe’s biggest GPU cluster (120k Blackwells by 2026).

13:00 🤝 Trump visit & £150bn US deal
* Breakdown: £90bn Blackstone, £22bn Microsoft, £5bn Google, £1.5bn Palantir, £3.9bn Prologis.
* UK pledges $80bn procurement from US tech/defence.
* Historic scale, but execution challenges loom.

18:30 📝 What the UK must do — 5-Point Plan
1. Regulatory bonfire
2. Pension capital unlocked
3. Energy independence
4. Planning revolution
5. Startup Central (“29th Regime”)

24:00 🌍 H1B debacle
* US slaps $100k fee on new H1Bs (was $1.5k).
* Big Tech shrugs, startups squeezed.
* Europe’s opening: 24h visas for £100k+ roles could flip the script.

28:30 🤖 AI Corner
* Nvidia invests $100B into OpenAI — vertical integration play.
* Cohere hits $7B with AMD deal; Modular raises $250M to break CUDA lock-in.
* DeepSeek achieves GPT-4-level performance at 1/20th cost.
* JLR cyberattack halts production for 3+ weeks; systemic risk exposed.

37:00 🛡️ Defence Corner
* Russian drones breach NATO airspace — first NATO shots fired.
* Copenhagen airport shut, Polish & Baltic incursions.
* NATO launches Eastern Sentry, Europe boosts spend to 3.5% GDP.
* Defence unicorns rising: Helsing ($12B), Quantum Systems, Tekever.

45:00 💸 Deals of the Week
* nScale: £1.1B raise at £3B — Europe’s newest AI datacenter unicorn.
* Ōura: $875M raise at $11B valuation.
* Aerospacelab: $110M for satellite constellation.

On today: Dan, Mads, Lomax, Andrew.

This week we chat with Mike the ex editor of TechCrunch, getting his take on the past, present and future of all things Euro-startup. Mads shares his thoughts on the All In Summit. We chat about defence strategies, pension funds and Euro cash injections, Germany moving and shaking their startup scene, Draghi's anniversary, the EU Inc guys / 28th regime - and what this all means for us in venture, for founders, investors and startups.

00:35 – TechCrunch Europe → reset
Redundancies post-Yahoo sale; Mike takes a breather, experiments with social video.

01:29 – Mike’s showreel
’95 journo → FTGuardian → joins TechCrunch Europe in ’07; spins up The Europas and Techfugees.

03:51 – New media > old blogs
Creators (MrBeast, Bari Weiss, Cleo Abram) now disrupt the disruptors; social is the front door for news; AI reshapes formats.

06:02 – Europe’s vibe, not the Valley’s
Fragmentation persists, but Slush VivaTech Web Summit LTW etc. anchor a distinct EU flavour.

09:24 – Culture shift needed
Be candid *and* boosterish; being bigger and bolder.

12:17 – All-In Summit debrief
Robotics “hand problem” (26 actuators arm; supply chain missing), AGI ≈ 5–10y, China’s practical AI push, enterprise AI moats (boring infra), Europe’s latent talent vs weak commercialisation; “physical AI” window is NOW.

16:27 – EU Inc & Draghi (1-year on)
EU-wide startup entity push; Draghi’s 383 recs: only ~40 actioned; public consultation live at eu-inc.org.

18:29 – What to fix in Europe
Planning gridlock (HS2 file bloat; energy permits ~44 months) + misallocated pensions (€16T, >55% in bonds ~3%). Shift saver incentives and trustee “prudence” toward productive assets to unlock ~€970B yr.

20:56 – Implementation drag
Only a sliver of Draghi implemented; call for a “crack” execution unit; R&D under-invested vs US. EU grants take ~240 days from green light to cash.

24:02 – UK pensions: rhetoric vs mechanics
Fee caps & plumbing still block meaningful allocations despite political cheerleading.

28:28 – Germany’s draft startup tax reform
Founder and VC-friendly fixes from German Govt (e.g., ESOP dry income relief, longer deferral, broader eligibility).

35:39 – Deal of the week: ASML → Mistral (€2B)
Mistral >€100m ARR; ASML’s strategic seat to frontier models; comps far below US hypers; BNP with 800+ use cases. Raises EU late-stage capital question; balance sheets stepping in.

48:48 – Defence - UK Strategy, Russian Drones and NATO/European Reaction
Poland shoots down Russian drones; UK to 2.5% GDP defence by 2027 (+ regional £250m hubs). Good signal, too small; procurement speed is the moat; Eastern front buying *now*.

Let markets drive early-stage VC; fix EU growth/IPO capital via pension reform. Win AI as power users, not model builders. Geopolitics demands EU/ally coordination. Quantum’s having a moment.

This week it's Mads, Lomax and Dan. All European early stage VCs looking behind the headlines to explore what's affecting venture, founders and investors.

00:00–03:07 — “28th regime” for EU VC?Dan proposes a structured EU venture vehicle

03:07–07:46 — Let chaos reign- Bottom-up or top-down? governments already big LPs; VC must deliver performance to unlock pensions.

07:46–13:11 — Macro & pensions.Dealroom report: EU VC-backed value ≈ $3.5T; domestic pensions rising but tiny vs need; UK fiscal context not worst in G7.

13:24–16:46 — Macro vs micro - Do we care?Great teams still raise; next KPI is a Europe-born “Mag-7-scale” company.

16:46–19:49 — Why UK tax payers support MAG7.Rules favour bonds (low fees/vol); reform prudential & tax to channel savings into EU productive assets.

19:49–21:25 — Can EU scale.Capital aggregation at multi-billion rounds remains the choke point.

22:41–25:48 — Google antitrust.No breakup; must share index/click data on commercial, non-discriminatory terms—light remedy.

26:18–30:16 — Isambard & AI adoption.UK supercomputer is symbolic; real edge is becoming the best AI adopter (health/life-sciences, public services).

32:25–39:47 — Power of Xi.China’s manufacturing lead; EU needs re-armament, industrial base, and alliances (US + Asian democracies).

40:24–41:54 — Deals of the week (Quantum).Quantinuum raises $600m (≈$10B val); IQM hits unicorn; prior Oxford Ionics → IonQ deal noted.

This week on Upside – It's a digital sovereignty deeper dive - what does it really mean, Nvidia is up but kinda not, Apple vs CMA - stormy teacup, and Governments Buying AI - which is a a great thing! Yes it is.

With Mads, Lomax, Andreas and Dan.

00:52 – Why Nvidia is “the poster child”
Picks & shovels of AI; outsized share of data-centre capex; sheer scale of valuation and index weight.

01:49 – Numbers that bend the mind
$100B rev $25B net income quarter; growth decelerating (YoY strong, QoQ data-centre +5%) and mostly “priced in.”

04:33 – Europe’s chip toolkit
ASML, STMicro, Infineon, ARM as the homegrown counterweight—and the media’s US-centric bias.

06:07 – Apple vs UK CMA
Interoperability, payments, “Apple tax,” and the tension between competition policy and platform control.

08:05 – When regulation helps
Open banking as a rare win; risk of “fighting the last war” on phones while AI becomes the real battleground.

16:36 – Antitrust lessons for AI
Need smarter, transatlantic, pro-innovation guardrails before AI market power locks in.

18:55 – Creative destruction vs. cops
Markets toppled IBM/Microsoft; you can’t regulate your way to greatness—create conditions to compete.

21:05 – Sovereignty kicks off: US buys 10% of Intel
Equity via CHIPS grants; debate on retroactive terms, national champions, and when government should own.

28:26 – Europe’s long tradition of state help
Airbus, satellites, energy—how “strategic” differs from picking winners.

30:42 – What should be sovereign
Compute/chips, energy, critical minerals, food/health inputs, and space—areas where hands-off fails.

37:12 – UK gov is buying AI (a lot)
Spend surges; Microsoft & Palantir dominate; case for being a “power user” while seeding EU/UK alternatives.

43:54 – Can startups sell to government?
Procurement is the moat for incumbents; call for sandboxes, fast paths, and small experiments.

50:01 – What is digital sovereignty (really)?
Acting without others’ permission; Europe’s dilemma: US defence, China manufacturing, and now US AI.

52:07 – China’s playbook
Back sectors, unleash brutal competition (EVs), let winners emerge—then scale.

57:33 – Follow the money
EU pension funds underweight EU VC; stop funding US dominance if we want sovereignty.

Fast takeaways

* Nvidia remains the bellwether, but the growth rate is normalising at hyperscale.
* Apple vs CMA = overdue competition questions, but don’t fight 2010’s war in 2025 - aim rules at AI.
* Sovereignty ≠ autarky: diversify dependencies, go big on adoption, and grow local apps/infra.
* Procurement reform (sandboxes, smaller tickets) is the cheapest way to catalyse EU/UK AI champions

For the real news behind the headlines affecting European venture.

Hosts: Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen, with Joe Knowles from Smedvig Ventures

(01:15) US vs. Europe in Wealth Creation
US dominates wealth & compounders due to internet hyperscalers.
Europe: strong talent, growing startups, but weaker late-stage funding & exits.
Pension fund restrictions and lack of capital allocation are core structural issues.

(12:10) AI Race & Europe’s Challenge
US likely to win again; Europe risks falling far behind.
Strategic gaps: compute, energy costs, slow policy response.

(13:05) M&A Boom
H1 2025: ~$100bn in deals (+155% YoY), led by Google–Wiz ($32bn).
Hot areas: AI code gen, security, vertical apps.
Europe well-placed in application-layer M&A and AI-enabled services.
Exits recycle capital → critical for VC ecosystem health.

(21:21) Defence Tech Awakening
Porsche & Deutsche Telekom launching €500m fund; Lakestar raising €250m.
Cultural shift in Germany: mainstream corporates backing defence/dual-use.
Small monetarily, but signals a tide change.

(31:21) Energy & Batteries
Breakthroughs: lithium recycling (97%), sodium-ion at $10/kWh, EU gigafactories planned.
Europe must cut energy costs (4x US levels).
Nuclear, deregulation, and better storage key for AI competitiveness.

(35:06) AI Corner
GPT-5: Faster, unified model, free to ChatGPT’s 700M users. Incremental but strong in coding.
Perplexity vs. Chrome: DOJ may force Chrome divestiture; Perplexity rumored buyer (PR stunt?).
Economics: OpenAI at $500bn valuation despite $5bn losses; Anthropic ARR exploding ($1bn → $5bn in 7 months).

(42:15) Chips & Geopolitics
US restricting Nvidia chips to China; Trump proposes tariffed exports.
Europe’s Chips Act stuck with outdated tech; Intel project canceled.
Urgent need for “Chips 2.0” and partnerships with TSMC/Nvidia/ASML.

(48:03) Closing Notes
Italy’s record H1 (€655m raised).
Europe’s momentum building across defence, energy, and venture.

Upside #52 The weekly podcast for all things European venture, startups and investing. Each week we look behind the headlines for the real news affecting our ecosystem.

VC Hosts: Mads, Andrew & Dan

This week: 
Seed-to-Series A: harder or hype?
Germany’s €100B Deutschlandfonds
UK interest rate cut
OECD’s corporate investment warning
EU Chips Act 2.0 - 1.0 #fail
AI Corner – GPT-5, Anthropic’s advances, open-source wars
Deal of the Week

00:50 – Series A: Out of Reach? Really?
US: Avg. 2.5 years to Series A, down to 11% graduation rate. UK/Europe: ~18 months, higher graduation rates, but smaller rounds. AI reshaping funding pace; bridge rounds at record levels. Overhang from 2021–22 funding glut being flushed out. Carta data shows improving graduation rates. Labels distort. Under-capitalisation as a European challenge.

07:59 – Germany’s €100B Deutschlandfonds - Be More German
Fund to secure strategic sectors: defence, energy, raw materials. Leverages €10B public → target €100B private. Germany’s growth stagnation since 2019 needs reversal.

18:35 – UK Autumn Budget Of Misery
Likely tax rises despite Labour’s pledges - risk making UK unattractive for VC & startups. Millionaire exodus, low PE carried interest returns signal concern.

22:09 – UK Interest Rate Cut Says What?
BOE cuts from 4.25% → 4% despite sticky inflation (3.6% → rising to 4%). Growth fears outweigh inflation fight – signals economic fragility. Will lower rates make VC relatively more attractive?

23:29 – OECD: Weak Corporate Investment Is Bad News
Investment still 20% below pre-GFC trends; physical asset investment lagging. Productivity stagnation since 2008. Corporates prioritising dividends over long-term growth.

40:11 – EU Chips Act 2.0 - Can We, Should We?
Act 1 mega fail: Missed 20% market share goal; may hit only 5% by 2030. Intel exit, focus on low-end chips, global oversupply, poor US trade terms. Need to attract TSMC/Samsung for cutting-edge fabs. Europe must avoid “please everyone” industrial policy. Chip demand will keep growing; still time to compete.

50:35 – Mega AI Corner
GPT-5 “soon” Anthropic’s Claude 4.1 leading in reliability. OpenAI launches first open-source model since GPT-2. Mega-rounds: OpenAI $8B, Mistral $10B, Perplexity raising. Open vs. closed source. IP & “decomposition” debate:

1:04:04 – Deal of the Week
Clay – $100M at $3.1B; widely used contact intelligence tool.
n8n – Valuation surges past €2B amid investor frenzy.
Voltrac – Spanish autonomous electric tractor; 70% fewer parts, strong ROI.
AI in politics: Sweden’s PM admits using ChatGPT for second opinions.

Recorded 7 August 2025