US-China Series

An Expert Series Podcast with Jude Blanchette, Head of the China Practice at the Crumpton Group in Washington. Our topic today is the dominance of Xi Jinping and the structural concerns that one man, authoritarian rule creates for China, both domestically and abroad. This discussion, which I believe is one of our best, looks at the current constructs of the Chinese Communist Party, the dismantling of leadership governance, the absence of a viable opposition and the prospect and consequences of a leadership challenge in the context of a this vacuum. Jude answers a question I have been struggling with for over a year now and that is how was President Xi able to achieve status as “ruler for life” , which is vital in the context of China’s long term political stability. We all must reassess our thinking regarding political risk analysis for China and Jude does a masterful job at outlining all the relevant concerns and draws some alarming conclusions.

This interview will give you a unique, long term perspective into what drives President Xi.

Dr. Kent Griffith obtained his PhD in Chemistry at Cambridge University, doing research concerned with fundamental insights into complex energy storage materials. Batteries are part of everything we do, and this will be the first of a four-part series. This is something I have been looking forward to for a while now and in Part One, Kent focuses on battery fundamentals. I thought I knew how batteries work. Kent opened my eyes and provides a strong foundation into his exploration of the future direction of batteries over the next several weeks

In Part 2 of our four-part series, Dr. Kent Griffith focuses on the underlying commodities used in Lithium Ion batteries and the alternatives. He discusses the pros and cons of commodities such as cobalt, manganese, nickel and iron and the relative supply / demand dynamics of each. This is an excellent lead into Part 3 and 4 which will cover where the technology is heading over the next decade and beyond.

Paul chats with JIm Bianco, Founder of Chicago based Bianco Research for a discussion on his unique approach to assessing fixed income markets and the overall health of the US economy. Jim pushes back on the consensus using a series a eclectic methods, predominantly involving search engine data. Jim works on the premise that our search engines don't lie and the result is a truly differentiated research offering.

Paul interview Bob Savage, CEO of Track Research for a wide ranging discussion on Cryptocurrencies and why he has launched a Crypto Business to the future of Independent Research in a world dominated by data and MIFID and of course, the prevailing macro environment

Regular Expert Series contributor, Jacob Kirkegaard returns for his assessment of a vital week in Brexit negotiation. Jacob has reinforced my thinking that the prevailing situation for the UK is migrating from a slow moving train wreck to something more urgent. This interview was conducted the morning of October 17th, the day of the EU leaders meeting in Brussels, the day we were meant to get confirmation of a final deal. This is clearly not the case. Jacob walks through scenarios for the next few months which he believes ends with financial market pressures leading to the UK capitulating, the government of Mrs. May eventually falling and the Conservative Party in tatters. He advocates a Norway style deal, something I disagree with, as the chance of a no deal Brexit are rising exponentially. The outlook for the pound is a dire one, especially with the growing inevitability of an early election and a win for Jeremy Corbyn.

The Expert Series welcomed back Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Centre for a discussion on US – China trade relations and the implications for Asia.

Two things that are particularly interesting, from the Q&A session, include the fact that the Trump administration has inserted a clause into the new USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) which prohibits Canada and Mexico from establishing trade agreements with non-market economies, which is clearly aimed at China. Secondly, Paul and Deborah look at the winners and losers across the region. Those countries that will embrace the opportunities as supply chains look for alternatives away from China such as Vietnam and those countries such as India that look poised to miss out on an extraordinary opportunity.

For a discussion on the outlook for the Australian economy, the Expert Series welcomed back Saul Eslake of Corinna Economic Advisory. Saul has a long career as an economist, covering the Australian economy at ANZ and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, among others.

Saul’s presentation covers every base you need to look at to gauge the state of Australia’s economy. Most importantly, Saul gives an in-depth, measured assessment of the housing market, tempering some of the excessively bearish views people have on Australian property.

The Expert Series welcomed back Jacob Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for a discussion on the Italian budget proposal and recent developments in Italy’s coalition government.

In the half hour discussion, Jacob reviews the outlook for the Italian budget deficit and the likely response from the EU Commission and the ECB, the rise of the Five Star Movement within the coalition and finally the outlook for an early election.

For a discussion on the developing crisis in the Chinese Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending space, we welcomed back Expert Series regular Martin Chorzempa of the Peterson Institute.

In this conversation, Martin outlines a few scary scenarios for the future of the business which has seen total loans fall by about 25% to RMB 900bn in the last 3 months as the industry has come to a standstill. He discusses the current crisis and underlying causes, the inadequate regulatory response and the outlook for industry.