US-China Series

For a discussion on the latest developments of Brexit, the Expert Series welcomed back Jacob Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute. Jacob and Paul discuss three possible Brexit scenario’s, none of which are good for Mrs. May and the Conservative Party. The first is a Norway-style half in / half out arrangement, the second scenario is the muddle through option, and the third is the nuclear option of a hard Brexit.

For this edition of the Expert Series, we hosted James Heneghan, SVP Agriculture at Gro Intelligence. Gro is the go-to source for global agricultural intelligence. Gro’s leading edge software automatically harvests vast amounts of disparate agricultural data, transforms it into knowledge, and generates predictions for volatile markets, and thus insight in the availability and price of agricultural products.

James titled today’s discussion “Soybeans on the front line of the US China tariff dispute.” What follows is a wide-ranging discussion, covering the impact of the tariffs on the global soybean pricing and production in the US, but also Brazil and Argentina. Most importantly, we discuss the impact of the tariffs on Chinese consumption, particularly the impact on Chinese pork production, and how that in turn affects inflation.

Paul was joined at the Expert Series by Ambassador Stephen Sestanovich. the George F. Kennan senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis professor of international diplomacy at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.

Ambassador Sestanovich discusses the results of, and reactions to, the Trump-Putin Summit and what comes next on the diplomatic front between the US and Russia; how the meeting fits into the broader context of Russian foreign policy, and finally, President Putin’s domestic agenda. With the World Cup and Summit over, Mr. Putin must return his focus to issues at home where he is facing challenges from several fronts. Ambassador Sestanovich avoids the conspiracy theories and delves into the Putin agenda and the outlook for US / Russian relations.

For deep dive into China’s Social Credit System, we will have a two-part discussion with two leading think tank fellows on the subject. For the opening part, we hosted Martin Chorzempa, Research Fellow at the Peterson Institute. Martin is an expert in financial innovation and specializes on developments in China.

For part 1, Martin Chorzempa explores what a Social Credit System is, why the Chinese government needs to resort to such a rigorous method, deemed an all-seeing panopticon – a surveillance system that automatically punishes everyone that does not fall into line - by local media, to govern its people, and the challenges and dangers that come with implementing and running the Social Credit System.

Paul was joined at the Expert Series by frequent guest, Chad Bown, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute where his research examines international trade laws and institutions, trade negotiations, and trade disputes.

Chad was with us to discuss the recent US trade actions and the ensuing retaliation from the EU, Canada and China. There are very few people in the think tank community who have a better handle on global trade issues than Chad.

Paul was joined on the Expert Series by Pentagon China Analyst and Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro, to discuss last week’s historic summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un. Dr. Mastro’s work is focused on analyzing strategic developments in Asia from the perspective of the Chinese and ascertaining what drives their strategy and rationale on critical security issues.

In this discussion, Dr. Mastro describes the relationship between China and North Korea and what each party is trying to accomplish bilaterally, and with other powers that have an interest in the region. Regarding the Trump-Kim Summit, she explains how it went exactly the way China hoped it would, and in a way, exactly how they orchestrated it.

The View from the Peak Expert Series hosted regular contributor David Stockton of the Peterson Institute for an update on the state of the US economy. David Stockton is a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and is also chief economist at LH Meyer. He was previously senior adviser at Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC.

Thorough as ever, David gives us an excellent overview of the current state of the US Economy, and as can be deducted from the title, he is quite positive on the outlook for the US economy.

In what turned out to be a very timely call, the View from the Peak Expert Series hosted Jacob Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, for a discussion on the latest developments in the political landscapes of Italy and Spain.

Jacob shares a positive outlook for Spain but is very bearish on the prospects of Italy. As Paul put it: “Jacob, we’ve been talking for nearly three years now on developments across Italy and beyond, and I have never heard you sound more bearish…”

The Mexican general elections will be held on July 1st of this year. The Mexican people will elect a new President, 128 members of the Senate, and 500 members of the Lower House, among others.

To discuss the most important issues regarding the Mexican Election, the Expert Series welcomed Luis Fernandez de Mesa, Portfolio Manager at Pembroke Emerging Markets LLP, where he focusses on Latin-America, primarily investing in equities.

In this Mexican election preview, Luis first gives us a general overview of the presidential elections. He then runs through several possible election scenario’s. Finally, he discusses how to strategically play Mexico.

The Expert Series hosted Michael Nicoletos, Founder and CIO of AppleTree Capital in London. AppleTree specializes in Emerging Market absolute return strategies. Michael focuses on investing in Eastern and Southern European economies.

In this discussion, Michael reviews the upcoming elections, fiscal policy and the Central Bank, the Turkish economy and nature of the debt, and the possibility of contagion across Europe and Emerging Markets, among others. This is a situation that anyone investing in Europe and Emerging Markets should keep a close eye on, and Michael does an excellent job of explaining what the important pressure points are right now.