US Elections Untangled

November will determine, what American environmental policy will look like for the next four years both domestically and internationally. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in many ways different, but one of the biggest differences in their policy platforms concerns the environment. In what ways has the US influenced the global fight against climate change so far and just how different a part might it play in the future? Visiting Senior Fellow Emma Hakala from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs offers her assessment.

The presidency of Donald Trump has threatened the transatlantic alliance unlike any other presidency since World War II. Trump’s rhetoric towards NATO allies has been very harsh, but the reality behind his words has in fact been quite different.

“The Trump administration’s approach to European security has been a traditional hard line Republican view: that Russia is a threat, defense matters and Europeans should be supported,” says Senior Research Fellow Matti Pesu from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

The situation “has been quite paradoxical: politically the Commander-in-Chief keeps undermining the political alliance but militarily and on the administrative level things are happening and even improving.”

Many would like to believe that a Biden victory in November could restore the relationship overnight. However, Pesu is skeptical.

“Even if Biden won, I still wouldn’t expect rosy years ahead.”

When a traditional politician lies, they do their best not to get caught. When a post-truth politician speaks, they might not even know whether their words are true or not.

In November, Americans will make a choice between a traditional politician and a post-truth one.

“Trump is a great example of a post-truth strategist,” says Leading Researcher Antto Vihma from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

“You can just bluff and not care about truth and falsehood at all, and that is what president Trump is known to do.”

When Donald Trump was elected, Russian politicians celebrated. But just like his predecessors, Trump has failed to build a better relationship with the cold-war era adversary.

Programme director Arkady Moshes from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs believes the US-Russian relationship is doomed to stay bad regardless of who wins in November.

“It’s practically impossible, that Russia would give the United States what it wants and the other way round,” he says.

“We’re basically stuck in a very difficult and complicated relationship that is not going to get any better any time soon.”

In 2016, Donald Trump criticized the sitting president’s choices concerning Iran, and now Joe Biden is doing the same in his presidential campaign. The future of the US-Iranian relationship hinges on the outcome of the November elections.

Last January, many feared the two countries were on the brink of war, but since then tensions have decreased.

”I think [the Iranians] are keeping their options open,” says Research Fellow Mariette Hägglund from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, “until they find out the results of the presidential elections.”

“By escalating the situation they would close the door for negotiations or dialogue.”

Hägglund believes Iran is open to negotiating with the United States if the country elects a new president who takes a different approach. But what will the Iranians do if Trump gets a second term?

“I honestly don’t think they themselves know.”

Did Russian election meddling tip the 2016 election? Could Russia, China or Iran succeed in influencing the outcome in 2020?

“Undermining the reputation of Hillary Clinton through disinformation and cyber-oriented attacks against the Clinton campaign might have actually tipped the election in favor of Donald Trump,” says Global Security Programme Director Mikael Wigell from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Wigell has seen clear evidence of several foreign powers trying to meddle in the 2020 elections.

“I think Western democracy has never really been under these sorts of threats before.”

What will determine whom the Americans vote for in November? In 2016 President Trump was able to appeal to many Americans’ identities. Joe Biden might have a harder time using that strategy this year.

Joe Biden’s pitch to the voters is “do we want to have another four years of Trump? If you’re answering in any way 'No', then you must vote for me even if you do not like me, even if you disagree with me,” says senior research fellow Charly Salonius-Pasternak from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

“And that is a hard pitch to make, to get people really fired up to go to vote.”

Is the United States sliding towards autocracy? Can the 2020 elections turn out in a way that threatens the longest standing democracy in the world?

“We are living in very dramatic, tense times and quite a lot is hanging in the air,” says Mika Aaltola, Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and the guest of the first episode of the US Elections Untangled podcast.

Aaltola sees many red flags about the health of the American democracy. One alarming tendency is the dehumanization of political opponents that has led to chants of “Lock her up”, demands of investigations into the sitting president’s actions and even some Americans finding it acceptable for the president to ask foreign powers for help with his re-election.

When a political opponent “becomes more of an enemy than your geopolitical foe, then something big has happened,” Aaltola points out.