The past week in markets was significantly calmer, with the S&P 500 reporting a 10.8% year-over-year earnings growth—its highest since Q4 2021—the focus now shifts to the Australian reporting season.
In brief:
US Earnings Performance: The S&P 500's year-over-year earnings growth was driven by strong results in the Utilities and Information Technology sectors, highlighting corporate strength despite high interest rates and political challenges.
Inflation Trends and Federal Reserve Actions: Recent US Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in below expectations, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts as early as September. This anticipation builds as markets await the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which will play a critical role in shaping the Fed's rate path in the face of fluctuating economic signals.
Australian Market Outlook: The onset of Australia's earnings season reveals a modest decline in profits among the top 200 listed companies, with an expected drop of 2-3% for the 2023-24 financial year. This downturn marks the end of unusually high profits seen during the pandemic. Current economic pressures are particularly evident in retail, with companies like JB Hi-Fi and Myer revealing the impacts of constrained consumer spending.
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