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How much can you safely spend in retirement without running out of money? It’s one of the biggest questions retirees face—and for years, many have looked to the “4% rule.” But what if that rule isn’t as simple as it seems? On the next Faith & Finance Live, Rob West and Mark Biller revisit this widely used guideline and explore a more flexible, thoughtful approach to retirement withdrawals. Then, it’s on to your calls. That’s Faith and Finance Live . . . biblical wisdom for your financial decisions. That’s weekdays at 4pm Eastern/3pm Central on Moody Radio.
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How much can you safely spend in retirement without running out of money?
It’s one of the biggest questions retirees face. For years, many people have looked to the well-known “4% rule” for guidance. But as helpful as that rule may be, it’s not as simple—or as reliable—as many assume.
Today, Mark Biller, Executive Editor and Senior Portfolio Manager at Sound Mind Investing, joined us to revisit this widely used guideline and explain why a more flexible, personalized approach may better serve retirees.
Saving for retirement is often more straightforward than spending in retirement.
During working years, many people invest consistently, contribute to retirement accounts, and let time and compound growth do their work. But retirement introduces a new challenge: no one knows exactly how long their money needs to last.
That uncertainty changes everything. Retirees must make decisions while facing several unknowns:
Because of those variables, determining a “safe” withdrawal rate becomes one of the most difficult parts of financial planning.
The 4% rule originated with financial planner Bill Bengen in the early 1990s.
Instead of trying to predict the future, Bengen studied historical market data. He examined how retirees who began in difficult economic periods—such as the mid-1920s—would have fared over a 30-year retirement.
His conclusion: an initial withdrawal rate of 4.15%, followed by annual inflation adjustments, would have sustained every portfolio in his study for at least 30 years, even under the worst historical conditions.
That’s an important detail.
The 4.15% figure wasn’t intended to be the ideal spending strategy for everyone. It was the lowest common denominator—the floor that worked even in the toughest scenarios.
Over time, that finding was simplified into the “4% rule.” Many people began to treat it as the optimal answer for nearly every retiree. But according to Biller, that was never the point.
Rules of thumb can be helpful as rough planning tools, especially for someone years away from retirement who is trying to estimate future needs. But once retirement draws near, more precision is needed.
A single percentage cannot account for your income sources, goals, spending habits, tax picture, or life expectancy.
Sound Mind Investing conducted its own analysis under different assumptions, including a 50/50 stock-and-bond portfolio that became more conservative over time. Their findings showed:
Meanwhile, Bengen later revisited his original work with broader investment options and updated tools. His revised conclusions suggested:
These updates reinforce an important truth: retirement planning is more dynamic than a single number can capture.
Rather than anchoring to one percentage, retirees should build a plan around their full financial picture. That includes:
Financial planning software or a trusted advisor can help run simulations, stress-test scenarios, and make adjustments
A lot of big things have happened in our world recently. In the last weeks, months, and even a few years, we’ve seen earth-shaking developments, many of which seemed to pop up overnight. Well, God’s Word tells us about some changes coming that we can’t even imagine. It’ll be a time of Great Tribulation! And today on A NEW BEGINNING, Pastor Greg Laurie answers our questions and gives us the reassurance we need. We’ll see God has a plan, and that plan includes us.
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Friendship hasn’t always been this hard. Author Drew Hunter looks at historical friendships, and some of the ways we get it wrong.
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How do you learn to let go when your kids leave home and they aren't following Christ right now? Hillary Ferrer and Julie Loos speak with Jim Daly on ways you can trust God if you have a prodigal child. Then, Danny brings up some ways he's seen God restore kids even after they rebelled for a time.
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British evangelist J.John and his wife Killy share real stories and practical advice from the ups and downs of 42 years of marriage and global ministry. You’ll hear how “The Four R’s” – respect, responsibility, romance, and resolve can shape your marriage to go the distance.
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