Views from Down Underer

Israel attacked Iran to decapitate its nuclear program and Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks.  Will this turn into a regional war? NZ PM will visit Beijing, with lots going on domestically and internationally what are some of their likely talking points?  Pentagon has decided to review the AUKUS arrangements catching Australia by surprise and also ahead of an upcoming visit by the Australian PM to the US. US Army celebrated its 250th anniversary with a military parade which are rare in the US.

South Korean liberal politician Lee Jae-myung won the presidency.  With Korean society so polarised is this a 'poisoned chalice.'  Trump administration in a spat with California threatened to cut federal funding, in turn California governor Gavin Newsom threatened to not turn over California's federal taxes.  What is this spat all about?  Thailand and Cambodia are having a dispute over part of its shared border.  The militaries of both countries have been mobilised. What does this mean for the concept of ASEAN as a security community?

Shangrila Dialogue was held in Singapore last week.  French president Macron spoke of the importance of Europe to engage Asia.  US defense secretary Hegseth warns about hedging and implores regional states to spend at least 5% on their defense.  Interestingly, China did not send their defense minister instead an academic delegation from their defense university.

US naval ship visits New Zealand after PLA Navy ships showed up in the Tasman Sea several months ago.  With NZ planning to increase defense spending does this mean a closer defense relationship between the two countries since the breakup of ANZUS in the late 1980s?  Philippine midterm elections shows the strength of political dynasties in the Philippines and the seeming weakness of Philippine political institutions.  Is this a sign of poor institutional design?  Wall Street Journal reports that US is planning to reduce the number of soldiers based in South Korea and Singapore warns foreign embassies not to interfere in domestic affairs.

Prominent international relations scholar, Joseph Nye, passes away.  We chat about his contribution to the study of international relations.  Catholic Church has a new pope and the first born in the US.  Asia's demand for US dollar is waning, what does it mean and what are likely implications?  US is upping intelligence gathering on Greenland and Danish government protests this action.

The general elections of Canada, Australia, and Singapore returned incumbents and shows voters are voting for stability and steady hands at this time of global uncertainty.

NZ FM gave a speech at the East-West Center in Honolulu titled "Enduring Pacific Partnerships" that talks about the importance of NZ relations with US especially in the context of Pacific partnerships.  Trump and Zelensky met just before the funeral mass of Pope Francis where Trump noted that Russia may not be serious about ending the war with Ukraine.  Lastly, the caution and warning about foreign influence in the upcoming Singapore general elections.

The new State of Southeast Asia Survey is out and provides a snapshot of public opinions from SEA about all things that concern the region.  Here is a link to the survey: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/centres/asean-studies-centre/state-of-southeast-asia-survey/the-state-of-southeast-asia-2025-survey-report/

Trump's liberation day announcement and the 'reciprocal' tariffs led to stock market crash and high market volatility.  With global stock markets shedding trillions of dollars from its value and the eventual hit on US Treasury bonds as investors dump the bonds and yields on the bonds rise, Trump put a temporary 90-day halt on the tariffs.  President Trump and the US blinked as the market taught it a harsh lesson in international economics.  So what happened?  In this discussion, we chat about the market dynamics and political economy of 'liberation to liquidation' week.

South Korean constitutional court removes president Yoon for declaring an illegal martial law in early December 2024. New presidential election is set for June 3rd.  Trump administration launched the so called 'liberation day' by slapping 'reciprocal' tariffs on its own major trading partners.  Markets are reacting with the significant declines of major stock markets.