Views from Down Underer

Excellent essay on the macroeconomic limits of US exceptionalism and what it means for the increasingly protectionist global trading regime and the resurgence of mercantilism.  Is the US undermining the rules based order that it was a chief architect and proponent of in the post-WW2 period?  A rain-drenched UK PM Rishi Sunak announced an earlier than expected general election date in the courtyard of 10 Downing Street.  Is this an omen for a Conservative washout in the July general election?

Lord Cameron calls UK to out-cooperate, out-compete, and out-innovate in foreign affairs.  What does it mean in action?  Xi rolls out the red carpet for Putin.  Is this still a partnership of equals? India has been accused by Australia for operating a spy network.  India acting like a great power?  A small town mayor in the Philippines is suspected of being a Chinese spy...but that is not all...the story gets stranger.

A May 2, 2024 article published in Foreign Affairs examines the problem of misunderstanding of the Asian states and how they position themselves in the context of great power competition.  This fundamental misread of the Asian states is showing in the 'one size fits all' foreign policies of major powers towards Asia...particularly Southeast Asia.  In an April 2024 publication of the prestigious academic journal - Democratization - the Varieties of Democracy team shares an excellent presentation of the state of world today and shows that liberal democracies are challenge.

Norway's deputy foreign minister rebuts accusations about double-standard in foreign policy of Western countries and argues that at least in the case of Norway they have tried to be consistent in their foreign policy. Is it easier for smaller states to be consistent?  Is it more difficult for major powers engaging in multiple issue dimensions to be consistent so that they appear double-standard?  Do values trump interest?  Or should interest dominate all international political actions? In a recent excellent episode of Freakonomics podcast program focused on a discussion with Fareed Zakaria of whether we are living in the most revolutionary period in human history.  We share our individual take on the thought-provoking episode.

Iran retaliates against Israel for bombing its Damascus consulate.  Will this expand the Middle East conflict?  How does it impact on the Indo-Pacific region?  What does it mean for international order?  What does it say about the hegemon's management of the international order?  Biden administration has doubled-down on the trade policies that started with Trump.  In a recent trip to China, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blasted China for its industrial overcapacity.  US is even considering banning Chinese electric vehicle imports in name of national security.  On top of that, US are requiring exporters to provide a no-China input certificate for products sold to the US.  Are we now in a post-globalization world?  Have we entered a new era of mercantilism and beggar thy neighbor in this 21st century?  What does it mean to global peace and stability?

ISEAS of Singapore released its recent State of the Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report that is available from their website.  We chat about some of the interesting findings from this longitudinal public opinion poll.  We also give an update to the big news items that we are following since the start of 2024.

ISIS launched a terror attack in Moscow and Russia failed to heed warnings given by the US.  Non-state actors are rearing its ugly head on global politics again at a time when appetite for global cooperation is low.  China's economy is stagnating but the reform required to switch its economy to be domestic demand driven is hard to come by.  India wanted to create a new democracy index as its rankings in global democracy index continues to drop.  Lastly, Trump is now peddling a 'God Bless the USA' bible that seems to be a direct appeal to evangelical voters.  

NZ Foreign Affairs minister Winston Peters recently visited India and Southeast Asia.  Is this NZ's version of de-risking and diversification of its relationships in the region?  China's Foreign Affairs minister Wang Yi visited Wellington very recently.  What is the significance of this meeting?  

Prabowo Subianto has claimed a huge win in the Indonesian presidential elections but faced a fragmented legislature.  What are the challenges that a Prabowo presidency faces? What are the implications to ASEAN relations and Indonesia's relations with China and the US?  News of Singapore's subsidy for exclusive shows of Taylor Swift's Era Tour in Southeast Asia has raised protest from some ASEAN politicians of Singapore not being a 'good neighbor.'  What does it say about ASEAN solidarity or it is simply an action of an entrepreneurial state?

ANZMIN 2+2 is the first ministerial level consultations between NZ and Australian foreign affairs and defense ministers.  The joint statement of the ANZMIN released by the NZ government marks a clear shift in NZ's explicit posturing regards to AUKUS, QUAD, and Indo-Pacific issues.  Indonesia's presidential election will be held on 14 February, the use of cartoon as a campaign tool seem to be creating a positive and softer image of the leading presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto.  India detained a pigeon for eight months on the suspicion of being a Chinese spy...in the age of AI can this be true?  Nikki Haley lost the Nevada Republican primary to 'none of the above.'  How long will she able to stay in the race?