Wins Above Fantasy – Ariel Cohen (@ATCNYC) of FanGraphs, CBS, and Rotoballer joins Van Burnett (@Van_Verified) and Steve Gesuele (@stav8818) to talk about ATC projections, game theory, and how to quantify risk.

Useful Ariel Links: ATC Projections and Minimizing Risk, Game Theory Article

Ariel’s Draft Approach (3:55)

Explaining ATC Projections (6:46)

How Projections Adjust for Lockouts or Free Agency (8:20)

How Ariel Scores the Best Projections? (12:28)

Advice on Using Projections as Draft Prep (21:00)

New ATC Risk Metrics (26:35)

Francisco Lindor Safe but Pricey? (44:52)

Adam Duvall ATC’s #1 Bargain?! (52:58)

Aaron Judge Surprisingly Safe (55:09)

Ke’Bryan Hayes Safe for Late, Scarce Categories (58:30)

Franmil Reyes a Bargain Despite DH (1:03:05)

Luis Robert Pricey Do-It-All Player (1:05:00)

Jazz Chisholm More Bust Than Boom (1:08:22)

Ryan Mountcastle’s Curious Case (1:14:30)

Sandy Alcantara’s Outlook From Ariel (1:19:00)

Starling Marte’s Speed and Balance (1:23:00)

Is Myles Straw’s Running Worth the Risk? (1:26:53)

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