Wins Above Fantasy

WAF 44: Ariel Cohen & Quantifying Risk

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Wins Above Fantasy – Ariel Cohen (@ATCNYC) of FanGraphs, CBS, and Rotoballer joins Van Burnett (@Van_Verified) and Steve Gesuele (@stav8818) to talk about ATC projections, game theory, and how to quantify risk.

  • Useful Ariel Links: ATC Projections and Minimizing Risk, Game Theory Article
  • Ariel’s Draft Approach (3:55)
  • Explaining ATC Projections (6:46)
  • How Projections Adjust for Lockouts or Free Agency (8:20)
  • How Ariel Scores the Best Projections? (12:28)
  • Advice on Using Projections as Draft Prep (21:00)
  • New ATC Risk Metrics (26:35)
  • Francisco Lindor Safe but Pricey? (44:52)
  • Adam Duvall ATC’s #1 Bargain?! (52:58)
  • Aaron Judge Surprisingly Safe (55:09)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes Safe for Late, Scarce Categories (58:30)
  • Franmil Reyes a Bargain Despite DH (1:03:05)
  • Luis Robert Pricey Do-It-All Player (1:05:00)
  • Jazz Chisholm More Bust Than Boom (1:08:22)
  • Ryan Mountcastle’s Curious Case (1:14:30)
  • Sandy Alcantara’s Outlook From Ariel (1:19:00)
  • Starling Marte’s Speed and Balance (1:23:00)
  • Is Myles Straw’s Running Worth the Risk? (1:26:53)

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    Wins Above FantasyBy Van Burnett, Steve Gesuele
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