Which position in fantasy football is the most risky? Which is the safest? RB or WR? Many fantasy football pundits over the last few seasons have insisted it's WRs. But does the data corroborate that?
In this episode, Kenny Ortiz of theCapisfake.com and WalterFootball.com examines the data from 2021 thru 2025 to see which positions are safest and which are most likely to bust.
If you want to see the data for yourself, check it out: https://thecapisfake.com/2026/07/08/the-wr-is-safer-idea-is-wrong-5-years-of-fantasy-football-data
Most fantasy football managers and gamblers rely on pre-season fantasy football rankings without knowing how often those rankings fail and how often they are informed by bad conventional wisdom. So, whether you are prepping for a re-draft or dynasty league, understanding the historical hit rate of these projections is essential for building a winning roster.
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In addition to Kenny's contributions at Walterfootball.com, Kenny also contributes over at theCapisfake.com where he explores various elements of fantasy football and pro football analytics as well as some of the nerdy elements and aspects of the NFL like the specific protocols related to the NFL salary cap, collective bargaining agreement, and NFL contract mechanisms.
0:00 – Intro: Is WR Really the Safest Fantasy Position?
0:52 – Methodology: Data Source & Scoring Format
2:06 – 2025 Running Back Hit Rates
4:02 – 2025 Wide Receiver Hit Rates
9:02 – 2025 QB & TE Hit Rates
10:54 – 2024 QB & TE Hit Rates
12:50 – Five-Year Average Hit Rates by Position
17:01 – Takeaway #1: Projections Are Less Reliable Than You Think
19:19 – Takeaway #2: Prioritize Running Backs Early
24:47 – Takeaway #3: Wait on QB and TE