As of March 17, 2026, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had left more than 150 ships waiting outside the chokepoint, followed at least 21 merchant ship attacks since March 1, and helped push Brent crude as high as $126 per barrel.

This episode tests Ray Dalio's "Final Battle" thesis against the actual record: the mining campaign, the convoy shortfall, the Suez 1956 analogy, and the possibility that yuan settled oil corridors could intensify pressure on the dollar system faster than Washington can restore control.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep85

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War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

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On Day 17, Iran launched a highly synchronized multi-front offensive, striking a UAE oil field in Fujairah and firing ballistic missiles toward Israel, prompting Israeli retaliatory attacks on Tehran and Beirut.

White House Chief Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett confirmed the first two weeks cost $12 billion, while IDF Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani stated the war would last 'as long as needed,' highlighting a significant discrepancy in campaign projections.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep84

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

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President Trump announced Energy Secretary Chris Wright is weighing options to strike Iran's critical Kharag Island oil infrastructure, a move that starkly contradicts Wright's public projection of a "weeks long" conflict.

This comes as key allies like South Korea and Japan stall on Strait of Hormuz commitments, while drone attacks escalate, including a direct hit near Dubai International Airport.

All documents and sources referenced are available at Wardesk.fm.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep83

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

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Day 16 recap focused only on developments from March 14, 2026. This episode is built from 13 OpenClaw-curated sources from that day, with supplemental sources added only when coverage gaps require it.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep82

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

Produced by Island Investigation

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On March 13, 2026, U.S. forces bombed over 90 military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, the heart of Iran's oil export infrastructure, but deliberately spared the oil terminals to avoid sparking a global energy crisis. The same day, a KC-135 tanker crashed in Iraq, killing six Ohio Air National Guard members, bringing the U.S. death toll to 13.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz shipping collapsed to single digits per day as oil prices climbed above $100.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep81

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

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On March 12, 2026, a KC-135R refueling aircraft, serial 63-8017, went down near Turaibil along the Iraqi-Jordanian border, killing all six crew members. CENTCOM said it was not the result of hostile or friendly fire. The Islamic Resistance of Iraq claimed it shot the aircraft down and forced a second KC-135 to declare an in-flight emergency and land at Ben Gurion Airport. It was the fourth manned American aircraft lost in 14 days.

On the same day, Trump declared Iran has no navy, no air force, and no air defenses. Six ships were attacked in the Persian Gulf. Iraq shut all oil terminal operations. Oil crossed 100 dollars a barrel. And Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first public statement as Supreme Leader, in writing through a news anchor without appearing on camera, demanding the Strait of Hormuz stay closed. War Desk tracks the two-week cost of Operation Epic Fury against the evidence.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep80

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

Produced by Island Investigation

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On March 12, 2026, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2817 condemning Iran's attacks on Gulf states with 13 votes in favor. Russia and China abstained rather than vetoing. Iran's President Pezeshkian laid out three ceasefire conditions for the first time: reparations, nuclear rights recognition, and binding security guarantees. While diplomats talked, Iranian explosive drone boats attacked two oil tankers in Iraqi waters, killing one crew member and forcing Iraq to shut down all oil terminal operations. Six ships were attacked in the Persian Gulf in 24 hours. Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first public statement as Supreme Leader. Oil climbed back above 100 dollars.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep79

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

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On March 11, 2026, CNN reported a Western intelligence source confirming that Russia is providing Iran with specific drone attack tactics, the same Shahed swarming strategies Russia developed and refined over two years of war in Ukraine. Five days earlier, the Washington Post broke that Russia had begun sharing satellite imagery showing the locations of American warships, aircraft, and radar systems.

The Pentagon says it is not concerned. Steve Witkoff says take Russia at their word. But four U.S. officials confirmed the intelligence sharing to NBC News. This episode reconstructs the timeline from February 28 through March 11, tests the claims against sourcing, and answers one question: is Russia fighting a proxy war against the United States through Iran?

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep78

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

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On March 11, 2026, President Trump told Axios there is practically nothing left to target in Iran. On the same day, Iran attacked three more cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC declared regional banks and financial centers as military targets, and the IEA announced the largest emergency oil release in history: 400 million barrels. A second girls school was hit by a double strike. Civilian deaths in Iran crossed 1,000 including 181 children under 10.

This episode tests Trump claim against the battlefield data: CENTCOM destroyed an entire class of Iranian warships and 16 minelayers, but Iran retains 80 to 90 percent of its small boat and mine laying capacity. The IEA release sounds massive, but at 100 million barrels per day of global consumption, it buys roughly 4 days. Oil is still up 17 percent from pre war levels. Iran warns of $200 a barrel.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep77

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

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On March 10, 2026, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth declared it the "most intense day of strikes inside Iran" since the war began. While Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei launched his first missile with "At Your Service, Sayyid Mojtaba" written on the casing, the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to 97% closure, and a deleted U.S. Navy tweet caused a $10 per barrel oil swing in minutes.

This episode walks through five developments from Day 10: the expanded targeting of Iranian nuclear and command sites, Mojtaba's consolidation of IRGC loyalty, the near-total shutdown of Hormuz shipping, the oil market chaos driven by social media and policy signals, and the fractures emerging among U.S. allies as Germany publicly broke from American strategy.

Sources for this episode are available at: https://nbn.fm/war-desk/episode/ep76

About War Desk

War Desk is an investigative podcast using AI-assisted analysis of military intelligence, diplomatic signals, and conflict data to assess global war risk, with sources and references published on our website for verification.

Produced by Island Investigation

Subscribe to NBN's Newsletter

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