What will shape power in 2026?

In our geopolitical outlook, we assess how emerging structural trends will define the year ahead: Economic coercion, mounting strain within democratic systems, and the re-emergence of spheres of influence.

We also revisit our Winner, Loser, and Disruptor of 2025 and assess who is best positioned to respond to emerging geopolitical pressures in 2026.

🇨🇳 Can China’s unique mix of communist and market-driven policies compete with, or even surpass , the West?

In this episode we talk with Aaron Chan, Managing Director at YPFP Washington DC and Senior Associate at the Asia Group, to dive into the forces shaping China’s future , from demographic shifts to technological ambitions, and ask: what challenges could slow its rise, and what might give it the edge on the global stage?

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(00:00) -  Introduction

(03:28) -  Economic & Structural Challenges

(20:08) -  Political setbacks & the issue of succession

(43:11) -  Geopolitical & external concerns

The age of rules-based globalisation is fading. In its place, a harsher economic reality is emerging, one where tariffs, sanctions, subsidies, and control over critical resources are wielded as weapons of power.

In this episode we talk with Yash Kalash from The Geostrata to unpack how Trump’s economic nationalism, China’s push for parallel institutions, and India and Brazil’s strategic manoeuvres are reshaping the global economic order. Will the world split into hardened rival blocs? Or will we drift into a more fluid, multipolar landscape where emerging economies finally get a say in writing the rules?

Discover more:

• The Geostrata
• Young Professionals in Foreign Policy

(00:00) - Introduction

(04:38) - From Multilateralism to economic cohesion

(24:58) - Global responses: Brazil and India Focus

(46:39) - The World Ahead: Multipolar or Fragmented?

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• Europe’s unrealised geopolitical potential
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🇪🇺 The European Union has the size, resources, and ambition to be a global power, yet in moments that matter, it’s often left on the sidelines.  The Trump–Putin meeting on Ukraine is a stark reminder: Europe may be consulted, but others still call the shots in its own neighbourhood.

In this episode, we explore why the continent’s growing economic and defence muscle hasn’t translated into decisive geopolitical clout, and what it would take for the EU to step fully onto the world stage.

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• ​The new age of great power competition: Deals and Dominance​

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:55) - Europe's new defence and economic posture 

(22:34) - Political Gaps & National Divides

(36:03) - The EU in a changing world order

🇮🇱🇵🇸 The conflict between Israel and Gaza won’t end with a ceasefire alone, not until the deeper root causes are addressed.

In this episode, we speak with Middle East expert Gerhard Pulfer to go beyond the headlines and look into the political, ideological, and geopolitical forces fuelling the war.

From Israeli domestic politics to Hamas’s shifting strategy, and from U.S. diplomacy to regional power plays, we ask: what’s really keeping this conflict going, and what would it take to bring it to an end?

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(00:00) - Introduction

(03:12) - Sources of Tension

(29:30) - Regional and Global Geopolitics

(49:59) - Between two States and one reality

The rules-based international order is under unprecedented stress. From escalating hostilities in the Middle East to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, the global balance of power is shifting. But are we simply heading toward intensified great power competition, or toward something else entirely?

We’re joined by Ionela Maria Ciolan, Research Officer in Foreign Policy, Security and Defence at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, to unpack the rise of transactional geopolitics, the decline of multilateralism, and the blurred lines between competition and cooperation.

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Can Democracy survive the 21st Century

(00:00) - Introduction 

(03:48) - Great power competition today

(20:41) - The Axis of Upheaval 

(36:30) - The Fractured West – Strategic Drift and the Future of NATO

As journalism faces mounting challenges, from political pressure and economic constraints to the rise of social media and public distrust, we explore its future and its role in global affairs. Joining us are John Holland , a veteran journalist who reported for CBS News and CNBC, and Andreas Grassl, a prominent digital creator reporting on international politics. Together, we reflect on the evolution of journalism and what it will take to safeguard truth in a rapidly changing media landscape.

Explore John Holland’s work in public speaking and media consulting and make sure to follow Andreas Grassl on your favourite social media platform.

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(00:00) - Introduction

(04:15) - A brief history of contemporary journalism

(16:05) - The rise of digital media & its dangers

(50:38) - The future of quality journalism

In an age of rising autocrats and weakened institutions, democracy faces its toughest test yet. In this episode, we speak with Luis V. Villaherrera, founder of TRACODA, an organisation dedicated to transparency, democracy, and the rule of law to explore what happens when institutions bend and leaders break the rules.

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(00:00) - Introduction

(04:05) - Democratic erosion: from El Salvador to Turkey

(22:15) - Digital Dictatorships: Technology as a double-edged sword

🇵🇰 With 240 million inhabitants, 1 million troops and nuclear weapons, Pakistan is a geopolitical heavyweight. Yet, its fate is rarely a prominent topic in international media. But beneath the surface lies a nation shaping the future of South Asia - and beyond.

In this episode, we talk with Calvin Nixon, to unpack Pakistan’s foreign policy, its role in South Asia, and the key dynamics shaping its future.

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(00:00) - Introduction

(01:26) - Historical context & Pakistan’s domestic politics

(17:01) - Pakistan’s role in the great power competition: West vs East

(26:52) - Road ahead & conclusions

In this episode, we dive into the events, challenges, and evolving geopolitical trends that will define 2025. From forecasting winners and losers to spotlighting key countries, elections, and conflicts to watch for.

Don’t miss out—join the conversation on Instagram stories to share your predictions and cast your votes!

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(00:00) - Introduction

(02:33) - Winner, Loser & Disruptor of the year

(35:53) - Elections, Countries & Conflicts to watch for