WEALTHTRACK Portable

How surprised have you been by the market’s supercharged recovery from the March lows and the economy’s rebound from the COVID trough? By any measure, the snapback has been extraordinary. The shortest bear market in U.S. history, a mere 33 weeks from late February to late March, and a much faster recovery than expected.

As this week’s guest, Nancy Lazar told clients recently: “In the last expansion it took almost 9 years (until 2018) for unemployment to fall to 4.0%. Today the Fed expects (more likely wishes) to see 4.0% just 4 years into this expansion. And since this cycle’s Drivers are leveraged to the Fed’s main policy tool - interest rates - the Fed’s in a good position to make it happen.”

We will discuss why she is optimistic about the economy’s progress based on some unappreciated and under-reported trends she and her team have been tracking both pre-pandemic and now. Be prepared for a fascinating and different analysis of the U.S. economy and why its recovery powers are so strong.

WEALTHTRACK #1715 broadcast on October 09,2020

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-the-4-forces-driving-the-economys-comeback-are-powerful-and-sustainable/

“Don’t fight the Fed” has become an accepted Wall Street adage. It’s a phrase coined by Martin Zweig, a legendary technical analyst, and investor who predicted the 1987 market crash to the day and was the author of the 1970 investment classic Winning On Wall Street. Zweig wrote that “The monetary climate - primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy - is the dominant factor in determining the stock market’s major direction.”

Fast forward 50 years and “Don’t fight the Fed” is very much alive. This week’s guest has been following that dictum during his 40-year investment career. He says we are in the midst of a Fed-induced market melt-up right now.

He is Ed Yardeni, a respected Ph.D. economist, strategist, and Fed watcher who leads Yardeni Research, a global investment strategy firm he founded in 2007. A prolific writer, publishing a detailed daily Morning Briefing and comprehensive What I am Reading list, he is also the author of a new book, Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors.

He’ll discuss why the Fed has become even more important in predicting the markets and what its current policies mean for investors.

WEALTHTRACK #1714 originally broadcast on October 02, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/why-fed-watching…-market-behavior/

Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors: https://amzn.to/30pSlkM

Winning On Wall Street: https://amzn.to/30rYhJI

How do you successfully take over and run a legendary fund with a 60-year track record of excellence? We are about to find out this week in a rare interview with a fund manager who is doing just that.

The fund is the T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund. The small-cap growth fund has 34 billion dollars in assets and carries a Five-Star, Silver Analyst rating from Morningstar.

Prior to taking over the fund, Spencer established his own record of excellence with the T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund which he ran from 2012 until early in 2019. During his tenure the fund delivered nearly 22% annualized returns, far outdistancing its benchmark and peer group.

What does New Horizons’ legacy mean to Spencer? How is he changing it? We’ll find out.

WEALTHTRACK #1713 originally broadcast on September 25, 2020.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/next-generation-great-investor-josh-spencer-on-taking-over-t-rowe-prices-new-horizons-fund/

COVID-19 has affected just about every aspect of our lives: our jobs, our health, our family and social interactions, children’s education, and leisure time.

But what has it done to retirement prospects? Not surprisingly, it has hurt them.

According to a survey of American workers with qualified retirement savings accounts, “...almost half (49%) had experienced a reduction in work income through job loss, or decrease in hours and/or a pay cut”.

Also, “...workers who lost their jobs or experienced a drop in income due to the COVID-19 pandemic were at least twice as likely to take money from their qualified retirement savings accounts as those who weren’t impacted.”

Retirement plans for older workers are particularly stressed. Not only do they have less time to make up any shortfalls, but seniors are more at risk from COVID-19 than younger people, so returning to work is more problematic. According to the Urban Institute the combined rate of unemployment and underemployment for workers over 65 was 26% recently, much higher than for those between 25 and 54, and the largest gap on record.

How can we improve our retirement plans to withstand the current shock of this pandemic and future crises, which will inevitably occur?

This week we’ll be joined by one of WEALTHTRACK’s long-standing and most popular guests, retirement expert Mary Beth Franklin. Franklin is a Certified Financial Planner, award-winning personal finance journalist, Contributing Editor at InvestmentNews, and Author of “Maximizing Social Security Retirement Benefits.”

Franklin explains what the pandemic has revealed about the state of retirement planning in the U.S., and how to best manage your own retirement in the current situation.

WEALTHTRACK # 1711 originally broadcast on September 11, 2020

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-covid-is-affecting-retirement-with-retirement-benefits-expert-mary-beth-franklin/

Maximizing Social Security Retirement Benefits: http://www.investmentnews.com/MBFebook

Surveys & Articles:

https://www.limra.com/en/newsroom/industry-trends/2020/secure-retirement-institute-covid-19-related-job-loss-or-income-reductions-drive-americans-to-tap-their-retirement-savings/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/business/retirement-coronavirus.html

Remember the discussions about the shape of the economic recovery? Would it be a “V”, a “W”, or maybe even a hockey stick?

The jury might still be out about the economy, but as far as the markets are concerned there is no question. V’s abound.

The top five S&P 500 companies by market capitalization - Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google’s parent Alphabet, and Facebook - all but the last topping a trillion in market value, are sharply higher.

It is no surprise to this week’s guest. Ed Yardeni turned bullish nearly to the day of the market turnaround. He and his team are now calling this a Fed-led meltup. They say it could turn into the Mother of All Meltups, what they jokingly refer to as MAMU if it continues. They would feel a lot better about its sustainability if the market had some sort of correction or consolidation. So far it hasn’t complied.

Yardeni is a Ph.D. economist, long time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely followed by institutional investors. He founded his own global investment strategy and asset allocation firm Yardeni Research in 2007, having held top investment positions at several major firms.

He is also the author of a new book, Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors, which will be the focus of another WEALTHTRACK.

This week, we’ll discover how bullish he still is and gets his advice for investors.

WEALTHTRACK #1710 broadcast on September 04, 2020

More info here: https://wealthtrack.com/all-the-reasons-to-be-bullish-with-veteran-strategist-and-fed-watcher-ed-yardeni/

Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: A Primer for Investors: https://amzn.to/31YHWh8

We are in a rolling economic crisis right now, subject to the vagaries of the advance or retreat of the COVID-19 virus. It is an ever-changing scenario with stark winners and losers.

The economy contracted at an annualized rate of 32.9% in the second quarter, the sharpest decline in the 70 plus years of GDP tracking.

After several weeks of improvement, jobless claims for first-time unemployment benefits rose for the second week in a row. 17 million Americans are now collecting unemployment benefits.

So far, the markets have been betting on COVID’s retreat and global economic recovery with big tech leading the way.

How to handle these extremes as investors?

As we have so many times in the past, on this week’s WEALTHTRACK we are calling upon a veteran investor to give us perspective and investment advice. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznI5J0QOR3ONLK1lo5WTgjA5c3hAGHAt

We’ll hear from great investor Hersh Cohen, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Clearbridge Investments. With more than 50 years of managing money under his belt, Cohen edged out the S&P 500 with much less risk and volatility than the market.

WEALTHTRACK #1705 originally broadcast on July 31, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/crisis-investing-with-veteran-portfolio-manager-hersh-cohen/

"Hersh's Dividend Compounders" list is available here: https://bit.ly/39HSrrl

Safe haven investments are hard to find these days, which is why we need them more than ever.

We are faced with risks we haven’t experienced in living memory. A truly global and spreading pandemic, rolling government lockdowns, unprecedented involvement in securities markets by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, and massive stimulus from governments with payments to individuals and businesses.

Normally when corporate and government debt soars to record levels bond markets get nervous, bond prices fall and interest rates rise as investors worry about getting paid back.

Not in today's environment. The Fed has essentially pledged to keep short-term interest rates near zero and backstop numerous types of loans to prevent businesses from going bust and laying off workers.

That assurance and the “don’t fight the Fed” adage seem to be enough for most fixed-income investors who continue to chase yield, driving bond prices up and interest rates down.

Not this week’s guest. Tom Atteberry is a Portfolio Manager of the flagship FPA New Income fund. Atteberry brings us up to speed on conditions in the bond market, and how they have changed since Covid-19.

Atteberry will also share his One Investment recommendation with us – it might surprise you!

WEALTHTRACK #1704 originally broadcast on July 24, 2020

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/safe-haven-investing-with-fpa-new-income-funds-tom-atteberry/

There are a few moments in one’s lifetime when the geopolitical and economic backdrop truly changes. COVID-19 and its aftermath are one of those moments. I call it “The Pandemic Pivot”.

The combined shocks of a highly contagious and in some cases deadly virus, global economic shutdown, rising populism, and global unrest are upending the old world order and introducing new disruptive dynamics yet to be fully realized.

In the meantime each of us has to live our lives, do our work and plan and invest for the future as best we can.

This week’s guest is one of them. He is Matthew McLennan, a noted global manager, Head of the Global Value Team at First Eagle Investment Management

Long before this crisis McLennan has been talking about emerging global geopolitical and financial risks. He says the pandemic has exposed a number of vulnerabilities that we will discuss, as well as how he is managing through them. One particularly interesting aspect of his strategy is a renewed emphasis on gold as a long term substitute for cash.

WEALTHTRACK #1703 originally broadcast on July 17, 2020

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/pandemic-uncertainty-risks-and-a-renewed-emphasis-on-gold-as-a-long-term-substitute-for-cash/

Part Two: We are living in extraordinary times. We are calling it the Pandemic Pivot: the changes that have occurred or accelerated because of COVID-19 and the dramatic response to it, from economic shutdown to massive life support.

The stock market performance has been largely driven by a small group of well-known mega-cap tech stocks which explains the NASDAQ and S&P 500’s stellar performance and the lagging broader markets. Apple, Microsoft, Google’s parent Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook make up 40% of the NASDAQ’s market capitalization and 20% of the S&P 500’s.

Is the stunning rally off of the recent March lows durable? Are stock prices running on anything other than Fed fumes?

Yes, says legendary value investor Bill Miller! He will explain why he joins us for the second of our two-part interview with him.

WEALTHTRACK Episode #1702 originally broadcast on July 10, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/all-the-reasons-to-be-bullish-with-legendary-value-investor-bill-miller/

Watch Part One: https://youtu.be/G5kee6K0lAw

We are marking the start of this season with the introduction of a new series. What we are calling the “Pandemic Pivot” - the rapid economic, market, and geopolitical shifts we are experiencing during the global health crisis. Through lockdowns and re-openings, the changes have been dramatic and swift. The huge, largely government-induced shutdown of global commerce ended the record-breaking economic recovery and the bull market in the U.S. The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in response led to the shortest bear market in history and what could turn out to be the briefest recession ever - the jury is still out on this.

To make sense of these changes, we are turning to a great investor Bill Miller, Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Miller Value Partners.

This week, in the first of a two-part interview, Miller and I discuss how the world has and has not changed since the pandemic struck.

More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/a-rare-in-depth-interview-with-great-investor-bill-miller-on-what-the-pandemic-has-changed/