WEALTHTRACK Portable

Life can change in a New York minute, and it has. The world is going through a terrible experience right now. As President Trump has said we are at war with an invisible enemy. I would add it’s an enemy that can strike anyone, anywhere which makes it so unsettling.

The coronavirus is upending lives and societies. The steps we are taking to combat it are harsh, isolating, and damaging psychologically, emotionally, and financially. Everyone is affected. Many Americans are losing their paychecks and jobs for an indeterminate amount of time. Some are in danger of losing their businesses.

The cynic’s definition of a recession is when your neighbor loses her job. A depression is when you lose your job. Until we get a handle on the length and scope of COVID-19 we won’t be able to define its impact.

This week’s guest comes from a family of investors who take the long view. He is third generation value investor Christopher Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Advisors an independent investment management firm. Davis will provide some welcome perspective on how the firm has managed through crisis conditions for more than half a century.

WEALTHTRACK #1639 broadcast on March 27, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/third-generation-investor-chris-davis-share-50-years-of-perspective-on-managing-through-a-crisis/

The markets will fluctuate said J.P. Morgan. We will add they can fluctuate dramatically and quickly. We are now living that reality daily.

The longest bull market in U.S. history, which began in March of 2009 saw stocks reach new highs in February only to plummet this month at historic speeds and magnitudes. The bull market officially ended on March 11th and the bear market began with a 20% plus decline in major markets from their previous highs. Since then the bear market has been deepening.

The longest economic recovery in U.S. history is also at risk. What seemed highly unlikely to most economists just a few weeks ago, namely a U.S. recession is now becoming a consensus view. All it would take is two consecutive quarters of contracting growth and it looks like the second and third quarters of 2020 will qualify.

Wall Street’s number one economist and WEALTHTRACK guest Ed Hyman issued his U.S. recession forecast on March 7th citing the triple whammies of oil price collapse, coronavirus economic impacts, and China-related supply chain disruptions.

Meanwhile, the bond markets are setting their own records. Yields on U.S. Treasury securities the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond have both been reaching historic lows. When bond prices rise yields fall so Treasuries have once again proven to be safe havens as well as excellent investments in the face of stock market declines.

None of this is a surprise to this week’s guest who has been warning of economic and stock market risks for years on WEALTHTRACK and the value of owning U.S. Treasury securities and cash.

He is Robert Kessler, founder, and CEO of Kessler Investment Advisors, a manager of fixed-income portfolios with a specialty in U.S. Treasuries for institutions and high net worth individuals around the globe.

When Kessler was on WEALTHTRACK a year ago he warned there was a recession dead ahead. He said it’s all about debt.

WEALTHTRACK # 1638 broadcast on March 20, 2020

Before the coronavirus crisis, Matthews Asia’s Robert Horrocks was bullish on China’s investment prospects. He believes China’s stock markets are getting back on track to outperform in the years ahead.

WEALTHTRACK #1636 published on March 04, 2020.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/china-coronavirus-aftermath/

"Current Conditions Call For a Long-Term Focus" : https://us.matthewsasia.com/perspectives-on-asia/market-updates/matthews-asia-perspectives-view/article-1708/Current-Conditions-Call-for-a-Long-Term-Focus.fs

Fears of a coronavirus induced hit to the global economy and corporate earnings drove stock markets into official correction territory today. It takes a 10% decline from the previous high to meet that definition and the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all exceeded that standard today after relentless selling this week.

For institutional investors, who are frequently judged on quarterly performance the safest course of action from a short-term performance standpoint is to sell first and ask questions later. Individuals are under no such pressure. As frequent WEALTHTRACK guests and The Wall Street Journal’s “The Intelligent Investor” columnist Jason Zweig wrote this week, “The Pros Have to Sell Stocks Now. You Don’t.” The article gives very compelling reasons why.

How damaging will the coronavirus prove to be to business? In a WEALTHTRACK podcast, Nicholas Bohnsack, co-founder, and partner of top-rated macro research firm Strategas Research Partners assesses the evidence so far and why he and his team believe there are reasons for optimism longer term.

WEALTHTRACK #1635 published on February 28, 2020

The Pros Have to Sell Stocks Now. You Don’t.: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pros-have-to-sell-stocks-now-you-dont-11582722004?

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/coronavirus-the-markets/

The reality is most Americans have not met their retirement goals. Here are some findings from a recent Fidelity Investments Retirement Mindset Study which surveyed adults of all ages, both male and female. Eighty-two percent of the general population don’t have a retirement plan in place.

It’s not as if Americans aren’t worried about retirement. They are. Seventy-five percent feel only somewhat confident to not confident at all about their retirement finances.

What worries people the most about retirement? Economic concerns that can’t be predicted and are out of their control. The next big unpredictable area of concern is Social Security benefits. The third is inflation.

Needless to say, the biggest personal worry is outliving their assets.

We want to change this dynamic starting right now. And we have the right guest to help us. Kim Lankford is an award-winning personal finance journalist, now working freelance. She was a long time contributing editor and columnist for Kiplinger’s. One of the first steps she recommends to plan for retirement or manage it is to understand our monthly cash flows.

WEALTHTRACK #1634 broadcast on Feburary 21, 2020.

Episode web page: https://wealthtrack.com/filling-in-the-retirement-income-gap-with-insurance-expert-kim-lankford/

Fidelity Investments Retirement Mindset Study: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/fidelity/retirement-mindset-fact-sheet.pdf

Investopedia – Guide to Annuities: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/annuity.asp

Insured Retirement Institute - Glossary of Annuity Product Terms: https://irionline.org/research-and-education/educational-resources/annuities-glossary

In the current market cycle dating from 2009 coming out of the great financial crisis:

- Equities dominated bonds and commodities.

- The U.S. trumped international.

- Growth outpaced value.

- And large U.S. tech companies dominated just about every sector and security.

As in previous bull market periods, money flows to the best performers and flees the laggards. This record-setting U.S. bull market has also accentuated the attraction of index investing, as mutual funds and ETFs based on the S&P 500, in particular, have been among the decade’s stars.

It’s been a challenging period for active managers, especially those focused on value investing and international markets. This week’s guest checks off all of those boxes but remains a fierce advocate for all three approaches. She is Rupal Bhansali, Chief Investment Officer of International and Global Equities at Ariel Investments.

Bhansali shows how to apply it to the world of investing to improve one’s odds of achieving above-average returns with below-average risks. Her upside-down investment approach focuses on avoiding losers instead of picking the winners

WEALTHTRACK #1633 broadcast on February 14, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/non-consensus-value-investing-with-ariel-investments-rupal-bhansali/

Book: https://amzn.to/2SqA9DK Non-Consensus Investing: Being Right When Everyone Else Is Wrong

When you are hot you’re hot and this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest has been on a tear since launching his Baron Global Advantage Fund in 2012. Alex Umansky is new to WEALTHTRACK but he is a seasoned investor with an outstanding track record.

Prior to joining Baron, Umansky spent 18 years at Morgan Stanley where he ran global and international funds as well as the firm’s Institutional Technology Strategy and Technology Fund. Umansky has a degree in finance, information systems and mathematics from NYU’s Stern School of Business and was a computer programmer early in his career.

Very few money managers have the opportunity to create a new fund, and a tiny percentage deliver the outstanding results Umansky has. We will discuss what he sees as his competitive advantage at Baron Global Advantage, as well as his views on the “big idea, disruptive companies” he defines as his specialty.

WEALTHTRACK #1632 broadcast Feburary 07, 2020.

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/top-growth-manag…ustries-globally/

Are we witnessing the end of globalization, the dominant trade and economic force of the last quarter-century? That is what financial thought leader Richard Bernstein is suggesting to clients. In a recent report, aptly titled: Investing for December 31, 2029 -The End of Globalization, he makes his case. And yes, he is talking about 2029!

As he notes in his report: “Market leadership always changes decade by decade, and the leadership of the past decade, which are now lauded as ‘core investments,’ seem highly unlikely to be the leadership of the next decade.” If he is correct, which he has been frequently over the years, thinking about investing for 2029 is probably a healthy exercise.

Richard Bernstein is Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors, which he founded in 2009. It now oversees or advises over 9 billion dollars in assets, largely in multi-asset allocation strategies using ETFs for financial advisors.

WEALTHTRACK #1630 broadcast on Janurary 24, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/the-end-of-globalization-is-a-game-changer-for-market-leadership-creating-new-winners-and-losers/

Investing for December 31, 2029 – The End of Globalization

http://www.rbadvisors.com/images/pdfs/RBA_Insights_Investing_for_2029_1219.pdf

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/

As we enter a new decade what are some of the major changes we face as investors? For answers, we are asking a global investor known not only for his past performance but also for identifying big themes that can have an outsized influence on the financial markets.

He is great investor Bill Wilby who has appeared with us exclusively since his retirement from professional money management over a decade ago.

He was the Portfolio Manager of the award-winning Oppenheimer Global Fund a graduate of West Point, Wilby also has a Ph.D. in International Monetary Economics and has held various international finance and investment positions at top financial institutions including the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Wilby wanted to discuss a couple of themes with us. One is the privatization of the public markets, the other theme influencing Wilby’s investment strategy is what he calls the global trade reset which we will also discuss.

WEALTHTRACK #1629 broadcast on January 17, 2020.

At the beginning of every new year or at tax time when I am under the IRS deadline gun, I vow this year is going to be different and I will finally get organized and make decisions over time instead of at the last minute.

For the second year in a row, we have invited one of our favorite guests who is very knowledgeable and organized to join us. She is Christine Benz, Morningstar’s personal finance guru.

She writes daily personal finance columns for Morningstar, does interviews and podcasts and is the author of several books including 30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances and the Morningstar Guide To Mutual Funds: 5-Star Strategies for Success. She has also been a WEALTHTRACK regular since the beginning.

We asked her to take us through her financial to-do list for 2020. It is detailed so get out your pens, papers or smartphones and prepare to take notes when you join us.

WEALTHTRACK #1628 broadcast on January 10, 2020

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/get-your-financial-house-in-order-with-personal-finance-guru-christine-benz-financial-to-do-list/