WEALTHTRACK Portable

If you were to follow legendary investor Sir John Templeton’s advice to buy where there is maximum pessimism it might lead you to energy stocks. The energy sector has lagged the S&P 500 since 2016 and has been one of the worst if not the worst-performing industry sectors over the last year.

The fossil fuel industry has been hit with an almost perfect storm of headwinds and instability among major petroleum producers outside of the U.S.

The ongoing trade wars between the U.S. and China have also started to take their toll on global economic growth, increasing the downward pressure on demand for fuel.

What’s the outlook for traditional energy producers? Are they still viable investments or are they on their way to being phased out?

Joining us to discuss the role fossil fuels continue to play in energy production and the state of the oil and gas industry, in particular, is Tom Petrie, a financial thought leader in the sector and chairman of Petrie Partners a leading investment banking and consulting boutique to the oil and gas industry. Petrie is the author of Following Oil: Four Decades of Cycle-Testing Experiences and What They Foretell about U.S. Energy Independence.

WEALTHTRACK #1617 broadcast on October 25, 2019

More info: https://wealthtrack.com/political-economic-pressures-on-oil-gas-stocks-industry-veteran-tom-petries-reality-check/

China’s middle class is growing and thriving with an estimated 400 million millennials alone, shopping and traveling. The Communist Party remains in control of the government and the legal system. The widespread western belief that democracy would develop as China’s economy and citizens flourished has not panned out.

Is China an unstoppable economic juggernaut with tremendous investment potential or a developing and thus risky economy?

With us this week to discuss the risks and opportunities are Idanna Appio, Senior Sovereign Analyst on the Global Value Team of First Eagle Investment Management.

Tiffany Hsiao is a Portfolio Manager at Matthews Asia, one of the first fund families to specialize in the region.

WEALTHTRACK #1616 broadcast on October 18, 2019.

More info here: https://wealthtrack.com/is-china-worth-the-investment-risk-pros-cons-with-a-sovereign-risk-expert-and-china-fund-manager/

The economy and markets are facing multiple headwinds. But the cumulative real growth of the economy, that’s excluding inflation, is far below other post World War II recoveries.

That growth is now being challenged on several fronts - enough to derail the U.S. economy and the record-breaking bull market in large-cap stocks?

In a slow-growth world, growth commands a premium. Large-cap growth stocks, particularly the largest U.S. ones known as mega-caps have dominated market performance, revenues, and earnings over the last decade with a few short-lived challenges from value stocks. Will they continue to do so?

This week’s guest is a newcomer to WEALTHTRACK, but not to the investment business. She is Margaret Vitrano, Co-Portfolio Manager of the high performing ClearBridge Large Cap Growth Fund

Vitrano and her Co-Portfolio Manager Peter Bourbeau also oversee ClearBridge’s All Cap Growth Strategies along with Large Cap Growth which adds up to nearly $50 billion under management.

Of particular interest is the team's “three-bucket” approach strategy to large-cap growth which Vitrano believes has protected their portfolios in down markets. She will also discuss their treatment of the FAANGs in their portfolios and why they are currently overweighting Facebook.

WEALTHTRACK # 1615 broadcast on October 11, 2019.

More Info and Hersh Cohen “Dividend Compounders List” are available at: https://wealthtrack.com/growth-stocks-with-downside-protection/

Medicare is a benefit that can’t start soon enough for many older adults. Health care costs are skyrocketing and they hit seniors particularly hard because many are on a fixed income and they utilize health care more.

But Medicare is not a slam dunk, anything but. It is a very complex, confusing multipart program that requires work to understand. And its benefits can vary widely depending upon how and when you apply, where you live, and what plans you enroll in. And as your health changes, it can either help you or hurt you. You need to know how to make it work for you.

A shocking statistic from Medicare guru Katy Votava is that “nearly 95% of people pay too much for their Medicare coverage… because they do not completely understand the full costs they will pay in addition to the premiums.” With Medicare, the devil is in the details which is why we have asked benefits guru Votava to return to WEALTHTRACK and bring us up to speed.

WEALTHTRACK # 1614 broadcast on October 04, 20219.

More Info: http://wealthtrack.com/?p=20590

MEDICARE RESOURCES

Medicare.gov – The official U.S. Government site for Medicare

1-800-MEDICARE

Shiptacenter.org – The State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) site that directs consumers to free Medicare counseling and assistance

Two investment tenets have been upended in recent years: one that value stocks, considered cheap by traditional metrics outperform growth stocks, the other that small companies outperform large ones.

Over the last decade, the opposite has been true. Growth stocks have dramatically outdistanced value stocks and large caps have significantly outperformed small company ones.

If you happen to be a value-oriented, small-cap investor it’s been a tough combination which is why contrarian minded observers think now might be a good time to revisit the space.

Chuck Royce, Founder, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Royce & Associates joins us to discuss how some of his funds have outperformed benchmarks for multiple periods, with below-average market volatility.

WEALTHTRACK #1613 broadcast on September 27, 2019.

LEARN MORE: https://wealthtrack.com/recession-threat-small-cap-companies-tell-chuck-royce-recession-not-a-concern/

Financial risks are adding up. Trade battles with China, the surprising vulnerability of Middle East oil supplies, the duration of Hong Kong protests, the drawn-out Brexit dilemma are all drags on business confidence and economic growth. In recognition, the Federal Reserve just cut interest rates for the second time this summer and remains on alert.

Another largely unrecognized concern? In August, for the first time in history, assets in passive equity funds based in the U.S. surpassed holdings in actively managed funds. The most popular passive funds are overwhelmingly dominated by a small group of mega-cap stocks, especially the tech giants such as Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Facebook. The fate of many investors’ portfolios hinges on the performance of this small group of mega stocks that have already had a record-setting run.

Global value investor Chuck de Lardemelle explains how he is de-risking his portfolios including the essential role gold is playing in the process.

LEARN MORE: https://wealthtrack.com/the-importance-of-gold-in-de-risking-portfolios/

How to explain the massive global outperformance of U.S. companies’ profitability and stocks over the last decade? GMO’s Head of Asset Allocation, Ben Inker dug deep and found some surprising answers in his “2Q 2019 GMO Quarterly Letter.”

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/stop-worrying-about-your-portfolio/

One dominant market observation of the last decade has been that we have been experiencing the least believed bull market in history.

As of August of 2018 the market’s advance, in large-cap stocks at least, had indeed become the longest bull market in history.

But the experience of investors has been anything but a straight shot. If you look at indexes outside the largest U.S. company stocks it has been a much more perilous ride with several major corrections along the way.

The Russell 2000, which is used as a proxy for small company stocks is a case in point. It has experienced three major reversals in the last decade.

This week’s guest operates in the sweet spot of the current market, large-company stocks, but he is advising caution to his clients. He is a widely followed market strategist and successful investor, Robert Doll, senior portfolio manager and chief equity strategist at Nuveen. Doll is famous for his frequently accurate list of 10 annual predictions forecasting the market, economic, interest rate, and political trends among others

With the economic recovery now the longest on record and slowing, how worried is he about a recession?

WEALTHTRACK #1611 broadcast on September 13, 2019.

Volatile U.S trade relations with China are immediately reflected in the financial markets but what about the economic impact? Could they push the U.S. into recession? Leading global economist and strategist Nick Sargen weighs in.

SARGEN: "Number one is don't add to risk. That's the simple message. Number two is, is it a good time to d begin to do some reduction of risk in the portfolio? And I think the warning signs are Yes."

SARGEN: "What I'm concerned with today is that I think there is no solution in sight. We are at a complete standoff. We are playing brinksmanship. And just today, the president makes a statement. I never thought I'd hear that U.S. businesses should stop doing business with China."

SARGEN: "In my view, the upside for the stock market is limited because if the economy slowing, profits are slowing, they're not going to be robust as they have been. And then the real risk to the downside. I think the Fed tries to provide support. But if the trade war keeps going the wrong direction, I see the risk is basically a replay of what happened in the fourth quarter of last year."

WEALTHTRACK #1609 published on August 25, 2019

NICHOLAS SARGEN

Economic Advisor,

Fort Washington Investment Advisors

Books Authored by Nick Sargen:

Global Shocks and Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets: https://amzn.to/2ZfxTV2

Investing in the Trump Era: https://amzn.to/2ZfEQ8z

The backdrop: contentious trade talks with the U.S. Which have roiled markets,… massive pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, and an overtly aggressive Chinese president Xi Jinping - who since he took office in 2013 has taken on more power than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, and has announced plans to dominate key global industries with his Made in China 2025 initiative and dominate land and sea routes from Asia to Europe with his China Belt and Road Initiative, the most ambitious infrastructure investment effort in history based on the ancient silk road.

Our guest is the refreshingly candid china expert, James McGregor, at the wall street journal where he was bureau chief in mainland china, then CEO of Dow Jones Company in China and was the former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce there.

He is currently Chairman of APCO Worldwide, Greater China where he specializes in advising multinationals on business, public policy, and communications strategies.




He is the author of several books, including “No Ancient Wisdom, No Followers: The Challenges of Chinese Authoritarian Capitalism.” 




China expert Jim McGregor gives us his candid assessment of the competitive threat that China’s leadership poses to the United States. It’s a fascinating conversation and a wakeup call for the U.S.




James McGregor: https://jamesmcgregor-inc.com/

Author: “No Ancient Wisdom, No Followers: The Challenges of Chinese Authoritarian Capitalism” : https://amzn.to/320kRb0


https://wealthtrack.com/great-value-investor-joel-greenblatt-reveals-the-2-secrets-to-beating-the-market/




WEALTHTRACK #1608, published on August 23, 1019.




It’s currently summer pledge season on Public Television, and we are presenting this WEALTHTRACK EXTRA until new episode return in a few weeks.

Additional discussion about how Social Security rules are changing.  As benefits guru, Mary Beth Franklin told us on a recent WEALTHTRACK, there are nearly 3,000 rules governing this benefit and there are specific advantages for different situations. This week we look at three: Divorce, Retiring Single, and Medicare. WEALTHTRACK #1607 published on August, 16. 2019.

https://wealthtrack.com/retirement-benefits/