Strong cold front will sweep across the area Sunday eveningA few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along the frontStrong northerly winds of 35-45mph will occur behind the front Sunday night into early MondayFrost possible Tuesday morningTranquil weather today and much of Sunday will quickly change as a late season powerful cold front sweeps across the region late Sunday afternoon/evening. Temperatures on Sunday will warm into the mid and even upper 80’s ahead of this boundary and this will create an increasingly unstable atmosphere favorable for some storm development along the incoming front. Do we see a broken line or more solid line of storms is questionable, but some activity is likely and nearly all of the high resolution guidance shows activity along the front. Front should cross the metro area between 500pm-900pm with activity quickly exiting to the east and south.
A few storms along the front could become severe with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. SE TX is on the southwest tail end of a larger scale severe weather outbreak focusing to our northeast. SPC has placed all of the region in a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday evening.
Once the front passes, strong northerly winds will ensue with frequent gusts of 35-45mph through Sunday night into early Monday as a cold air mass pours into the region. Winds will start to come down on Monday as the surface high builds over the area but will remain gusty. This will create a favorable period of high fire danger with gusty winds and low humidity values, but recent rains and ongoing “green-up” may help mitigate otherwise favorable fire weather factors.
Note that highs on Monday in the mid 50’s will be some 30 degrees colder than Sunday.
Depending on cloud cover that may pass over the area late Monday…there is the potential for late season frost or even a light freeze int eh colder outlying locations on Tuesday morning.
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