Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 8, discussing increased volatility tied to escalating US-Iran tensions after Iran struck oil tankers and the US retaliated against multiple military targets, with oil up about 5% and markets modestly lower but without a clear flight to safety (dollar slightly up, yields up ~3 bps, gold and silver down). He notes rotation dynamics and highlights sector breadth: pharma, household products, and utilities show 100% of stocks above their 50-day moving averages, versus tech, semis, and autos below 40%. Economically, wholesale inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.3% expected, while wholesale sales jumped 3.4%, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio to its lowest since 2012. He addresses Scott Bessent’s tariff “success” claim, citing tariff revenues annualizing to about $290B versus $500B–$1T estimates, some net-positive trade deals (Japan, South Korea), little change in the trade deficit, slight GDP drag on consumers, and offsets from fiscal measures and AI-related CapEx expensing.

00:00 Market Volatility Update

00:36 Oil Moves and Safe Havens

01:11 Sector Rotation Signals

01:41 Wholesale Data Snapshot

02:10 Tariffs Success Question

03:09 Trade Deals and Deficit

04:04 Wrap Up and Tomorrow

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com