On March 11 from West Palm Beach, Brian Szytel reports a mostly negative but relatively benign market day amid volatility tied to Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and surging energy prices (Brent ~$92.77, WTI ~$88.29). February CPI came in as expected: headline +0.3% and core +0.2%, with year-over-year headline 2.4% and core 2.5%; he notes current oil moves could have lifted year-over-year inflation to ~2.8–2.9%, though de-escalation or large IEA releases could offset. He highlights shelter’s lagging but cooling impact (rent measures up just 0.1–0.2%), important given shelter’s 35% CPI weight versus energy’s 7%. He discusses a new Fed chair in May aiming to cut short rates while shrinking the balance sheet, arguing productivity gains from AI and weaker labor data support easing. He also answers that TBG charges no extra external fees for alternative funds beyond internal fund expenses.

00:00 Market Recap and Volatility

00:44 Energy Prices and CPI Print

01:30 Oil Shock Scenarios and Offsets

02:34 Shelter Inflation Finally Cools

03:35 New Fed Chair and Rate Path

05:00 Alternative Funds Fees Explained

06:35 Wrap Up and Next Update

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com