What China Wants

As we are away for the next couple of weeks, and have had so many new listeners recently (hello, everyone),  we thought it would be good to republish what we think are two of our most important podcasts. The first of these is one we did on the Great Split and the economic carnage that will be unleashed by a conflict between China and the West over Taiwan.

This week, Sam and Stewart are joined by one of the foremost developmental economists on China,  Scott Rozelle from Stanford University. He is also the author of the brilliant book Invisible China.  When the world thinks of China, it thinks of the flashy, prosperous cities of the East and South coasts - Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen. But the majority of Chinese live a very different life, stuck in poor rural areas with limited access to education, healthcare, and jobs. Is this group, numbering 1/9 of the world’s population, a drag on the country that will disrupt the country’s development? Or is it an eminently solvable problem?

In seven short years, relations between China and the UK have gone from high to low - how has this happened, and what does the future hold? We welcome Sam Hogg from Beijing to Britain to talk it through with Sam and Stewart. Beijing to Britain is the only weekly intelligence Briefing mapping UK-China relations.

Links
Beijing to Britain | Substack
Sam (@EditorBTB) / Twitter
🇨🇳 Beijing to Britain 🇬🇧 (@BeijingToBrit) / Twitter

This week on What China Wants, Sam and Stewart are in conversation with Andrew Methven, the author of 'Slow Chinese 每周漫闻', a resource which helps you to learn, use, and understand how people speak Chinese today. In this episode, they discuss the roots and fascinating history of the Chinese language, as well as some of its idiosyncrasies and patterns that Andrew has observed.

Links
Subscribe to Andrew's newsletter here: Subscribe - Slow Chinese
The full newsletter referred to re online shopping:  Not buying it - by Andrew Methven - Slow Chinese 每周漫闻
The most recent newsletter: Like lambs to the slaughter - by Andrew Methven (slowchinese.net)

Alex Neill returns to the podcast this week. He joins Sam and Stewart for a fascinating discussion about the upcoming 20th Party Congress and the future course of the Chinese Communist Party. Alex also gives his take on just what might be revealed from behind the curtain amidst increasing rumours of internal Party opposition to Xi.

Last week at the G7 Summit, leaders announced the new Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) initiative, a commitment of $600 billion for the construction of global infrastructure by 2027. On this week's episode, Sam and Stewart weigh in on the initiative, its rationale and whether it has the potential to compete with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

This week Sam and Stewart are in conversation with eminent economist and author George Magnus, discussing his 2018 book  'Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy'.  Formerly the Chief Economist at UBS, George is a noted authority on what makes China’s economy tick. In this episode, George reflects on his thesis and we discuss whether his arguments have been revised since, as well as examine his current prognosis for China's economy. 

Links
Red Flags: Why Xi's China Is in Jeopardy a book by George Magnus. (bookshop.org)

In this week's episode Sam and Stewart explore the significance of the Pacific  from China's perspective. They are joined by seasoned expert Alexander Neill to discuss China's strategic aims in the region and the potential future trajectories Beijing might take.

Links
Map: The Pacific region from China's perspective
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/chinas-national-security-challenges/#&gid=1&pid=3

In last week’s episode we discussed the potential for a Great Split between China and the West over Taiwan. Today we examine what might lead to this, including the different ways that Beijing might force reunification with what it terms a renegade province. We also look a what the global economic repercussions would be from such a move: it’s not a spoiler to say that they would be horrific.

This episode forms Part 2 of our analysis on the breakdown of China-Western relations

In Episode 5 of What China Wants, Sam and Stewart discuss the potential for a rapid economic and political decoupling between China and the West over Taiwan, and ask what such a “Great Split” would mean for the world.