What Goes Up

Stephanie Flanders, head of Bloomberg Economics, returns to bring you another season of on-the-ground insight into the forces driving global growth and jobs today. From the cosmetics maker in California grappling with Donald Trump's tariff war, to the coffee vendor in Argentina burdened by the nation's never-ending crises, Bloomberg's 130-plus economic reporters and economists around the world head into the field to tell these stories. Stephanomics will also look hard at the solutions, in the lead-up to Bloomberg’s second New Economy Forum in Beijing, where a select group of business leaders, politicians and thinkers will gather to chart a better course on trade, global governance, climate and more. Stephanomics will help lead the way for those debates not just with Bloomberg journalists but also discussion and analysis from world-renowned experts into the forces that are moving markets and reshaping the world. The new season of Stephanomics launches Oct. 3.

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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to open a formal impeachment inquiry over President Donald Trump’s attempt to get Ukraine to dig up dirt on former Vice President Joseph Biden exploded in the news this week, sending a shudder through America’s political foundation. For investors though, it triggered a simple question: How should I trade this?

Natixis Investment Managers Chief Market Strategist Dave Lafferty and Bloomberg reporter Luke Kawa join this week’s “What Goes Up’’ to break it all down.

“In the near term, it doesn’t strike me as something tradeable,” said Lafferty. “We don’t know what we don’t know at this point; we don’t know what the revelations will be.” As 2020 approaches, however, “it has a lot of real market implications going into the election.”

Lafferty also discusses using game theory to analyze how the impeachment proceedings may affect Trump’s trade war, and how central bank stimulus is having diminishing effects. “Super accommodative policy 10 years on now serves to undermine investor and consumer confidence, more than it does to instill it,” he said.

 

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A stock market trying to notch new record highs this week was thrown a great deal of curve balls. Attacks on Saudi oil facilities sent crude prices surging. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for a second straight time through what was seen as a “hawkish cut.’’ And short-term financing costs went – as some called it – crazy. Joining this week’s "What Goes Up” podcast to make sense of it all is Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, and Alex Harris, who covers short-term funding markets for Bloomberg News.

Mentioned in this podcast:

 The Repo Market’s a Mess. (What’s the Repo Market?)

 ‘This Is Crazy!’: Wall Street Scurries to Protect Itself in Repo Surge

 Wall Street Races to Figure Out If the Quant Stock Shock Is Over

 Powell the ‘Artful Dodger’ Declines to Signal What Comes Next

 Oil Having Best Week in Eight Months as Iran Sanctions Toughened

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While on the surface it looked like a calm week for the stock market, there was a lot of turbulence down below. Rising interest rates caused investors to rotate out of once high-flying momentum and growth equities in favor of beaten-down value stocks.

This week’s “What Goes Up” podcast breaks it all down with Ken Fisher, the author of 11 books and billionaire founder of Fisher Investments.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Rob Arnott Wants to Take a Victory Lap on Factor Crowding Call

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When you think of the Periodic Table of Elements, what comes to mind? Maybe chemistry class, or flashbacks to memorizing combinations of letters and numbers. But what about markets? This week on “What Goes Up,” the team behind Bloomberg Businessweek’s latest issue joins to make the connection. Bloomberg's Joel Weber, Jeremy Keehn and Eddie van der Walt discuss elements from gold and silver to helium and gallium.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Bloomberg Businessweek’s The Elements 

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The cost of a bacon cheeseburger. The average size of a U.S. home, and the average number of people who live in it. The number of Google searches for words like “cheap gas,” “coupons” and “Dow Jones.” Nick Colas, the co-founder of DataTrek Research, tracks all of this and more on top of a regular diet of traditional market data. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg reporter Emily Barrett, who discusses the ferocious bond-market rally and how the Treasury is flirting with the idea of issuing 50 or 100-year bonds.

Mentioned in this podcast:

 Mnuchin Risks Unsettling Markets With Ultra-Long Treasury Bonds

 Little to No Catalyst Is Needed to Push U.S. Yields Down Again

 In Trump’s Tweet-Speed Market, Facts Take Back Seat to Hope

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On this new season of Prognosis, we look at the spread of infections that are resistant to antimicrobial medicines. You're probably more likely to have heard of these as superbugs. Their rise has been described as a silent tsunami of catastrophic proportions. We travel to countries on the frontline of the crisis, and explore how hospitals and doctors around the world are fighting back. Prognosis’ new season launches Sept. 5.

 

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Near record-low, and even negative, interest rates have captivated investors around the world. But are they here to stay? Chad Morganlander and Kevin Caron, portfolio managers at Washington Crossing Advisers, discuss how imbalances between China and other major economies have helped lead to a savings glut that’s depressed rates, and how the nation’s gradual shift to a more consumer-oriented economy could unwind this dynamic.

Mentioned in this podcast:

China Hits Back at Trump With Higher Tariffs on Soy, Autos

 Powell Speaks, Trump Tweets, China Reacts, Markets Freak. Repeat

How China Trade Policies Lead to U.S. Debt

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Chaos in Hong Kong. A cross-asset market shock in Argentina. And that dreaded yield-curve inversion—a fleeting drop in 10-year U.S yields below 2-year rates—goes viral by creating panic-selling in the stock market. It was quite a week. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Global Markets Strategist Gabriela Santos joins this week's podcast to make sense of it all. Also joining hosts Sarah Ponczek and Mike Regan is Bloomberg cross-asset reporter Luke Kawa, who gives his take on the market volatility of August.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Countdown to Catastrophe? What the Yield Curve Means for Stock Bull Markets

Equities Are on ‘Borrowed Time’ as Recession Signal Nears Inversion

The Weekly Fix: Recession or Japanification. Which Is Worse?

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On Monday, China let its currency depreciate by the most since 2015, then later in the week President Donald Trump put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to weaken the U.S. dollar. Has the trade war morphed into a currency war? And what are the implications for global markets? Bloomberg's Emily Barrett fills in as co-host on this week's “What Goes Up” podcast for Sarah Ponczek, while Bloomberg’s macro strategist Cameron Crise and currencies reporter Katherine Greifeld also join the conversation.

Mentioned in this podcast:

U.S. Intervention Odds Rise as Yuan Plunge Fuels Trump’s FX Fury

What Exactly Does Trump Want for the Dollar?

The Fate of the World’s Largest ETF Is Tied to 11 Random Millennials

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