What Goes Up

The Federal Reserve has the stock market’s back, right? That’s what a lot of investors have come to believe. The so-called “Yellen put” (after former Fed Chair Janet Yellen) has rolled over into the “Powell put” (after current Fed Chair Jerome Powell) in trader parlance that likens central bank policy to options contracts protecting against losses in equities.

But what if the Powell put doesn’t do the trick this time, and economic data and corporate earnings continue to deteriorate despite interest rate cuts? What if it isn’t enough to counteract U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war?

That’s one of the topics guest Alec Young, managing director for global markets research at FTSE Russell, explores on this week's show. Also joining the podcast is Romaine Bostick, a reporter and anchor on Bloomberg Television, to give his take on the state of play in markets, and what he’s hearing from sources on Wall Street. 

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The stock market is trading near record highs yet concern about a potential recession continues to linger in the air, and that’s a tough dichotomy for investors to wrap their heads around, says Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citi Personal Wealth Management. He joins the podcast to discuss how to position investments amid an uncertain outlook for the economy. Also joining the podcast is Brad Olesen, leader of Bloomberg’s U.S. stocks team, to discuss the highlights of the second-quarter earnings season.

Mentioned in this podcast:

S&P 500’s Earnings Miracle Is Failing to Take Hold in the Second Half

Boeing Warns It May Halt 737 Output If Max Grounding Drags On

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Second quarter earnings season has officially begun. This week, the biggest banks set the stage for what could mark the S&P 500’s first quarterly profit decline in three years. Will underwhelming results be enough to spur further gains in equities this year? Evan Brown, head of multi-asset strategy at UBS Asset Management, and Bloomberg finance reporter Lananh Nguyen, join Sarah Ponczek and guest co-host Chris Nagi this week. Also on the episode, a look at U.S. dollar policy with the possibility of intervention in the headlines.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Banks' Record Earnings Show Fed Is Key to Whether Fun Continues

BofA Counters Trading Slump With Gains in Consumer Banking

Mnuchin Currency Remark Seen Raising Risk of FX Intervention

White House Knows It Needs the Fed to Make a Dent in the Dollar

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With apologies to Bruce Springsteen, as the Fed prepares to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, it looks like There Is No Alternative (again!) to U.S. equities. Is the S&P 500's rally to a fresh record a new lease on life or the last gasp before it succumbs to a corporate earnings slide? Two of Bloomberg’s finest, senior markets editor and columnist John Authers and cross-asset reporter Vildana Hajric, join Mike Regan and guest co-host Emily Barrett on this week’s What Goes Up podcast to discuss.

It's a sober view from these stock market highs. Authers walks us through the signals he’s seeing in Shiller’s CAPE measure, which suggest that current valuations are "utterly, utterly dependent at this point on low interest rates." Hajric prepares us for a less-than-stellar quarterly earnings season but, as a special bonus, she catches us up with what’s going down in the world of Bitcoin billionaires, the Winklevoss twins.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Shiller's CAPE Reveals Dangers Lurking in Stocks: John Authers

Maybe $5 Trillion Is All That Can Be Wrung From Stocks This Year

Grim Earnings Forecasts Are Getting Worse by the Week in S&P 500

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The U.S. stock market’s best first half of a year since 1997 is in the books, as is a ferocious rally in Treasuries, and the second half is poised to be dominated by speculation about what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates as cracks appear in the longest economic expansion on record. Despite the fireworks in equities and sovereign bonds, currency markets are stuck in some of the narrowest trading ranges on record. Joining the latest episode of the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the first half and the outlook for the rest of the year are Pimm Fox, a blogger for Bloomberg Markets Live, and Katherine Greifeld, a reporter on the bonds and foreign-exchange team.

Mentioned in this podcast:

Be ‘Prepared for Anything’ as Trump Slams Europe, China on FX

One Look at Passive Flows Explains the Story of Markets in 2019

Trump Wants the Fed to Weaken the Dollar. Powell Says That’s Not His Job

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All eyes are on the Group of 20 nations meeting in Japan this weekend, with investors on the edge of their seats for news of progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China. News reports suggest that expectations are low. But what are markets signaling? Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide Funds Group, weighs in. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Markets Live blogger Ye Xie with insights on what China needs to get a trade deal done.

Mentioned in this podcast:

A Scary View on What the G-20 Means for Stocks and a Calming One

Record highs on Fed dovishness and trade optimism

Buy Low-Tops, Sell High Tops: StockX Sneaker Exchange Is Worth $1 Billion

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Simultaneous pressure from markets and President Donald Trump to lower interest rates makes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell look like a guy whose necktie is too tight, says Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at brokerage BTIG. He explains why, despite that pressure, the Fed may not cut rates in July as markets expect. Also joining the podcast is Bloomberg Opinion technology columnist Shira Ovide, who discusses how Slack Technologies Inc. has made its stock-market debut at a time when subscription-based, business-to-business software stocks are hot. Mentioned in this podcast:  Only Game in Town, U.S. Stocks Surge to Records in Yield Chase

 What Dangers Lurk in Tech Company Emails?

 Slack Poised to Join Cloud Valuations Soaring Into Thin Air

Fatter Neckties Will Save the Economy

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Short-seller Ben Axler’s Spruce Point Capital Management is thriving in the age of computerized investing by going where the machines don’t. He joins this week’s conversation to share how he digs deep into proxy statements and other obscure documents to sniff out the incentive targets that influence management, and then reverse engineers the ways they’re accomplishing them. Sebastian Boyd, a Santiago, Chile-based writer for the Bloomberg Markets Live blog, also discusses the state of credit markets and what to expect from the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. 

 

Mentioned in this podcast:

The Tiny Activist Fund That Reaped 24% Return by Unearthing ‘Cockroaches’

Short Squeeze Fuels Junk-Bond ETF Jump After Record Bearish Bets 

Fed Seen on Track for 2019 Rate Cut Though Call Is Close 

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In the midst of a multi-front trade war, Wall Street has advised that investors shun emerging market stocks. Rob Arnott, the founder of Research Affiliates and “godfather” of smart beta investing, disagrees. It's why half of his personal portfolio now sits in developing-nation value stocks, and his firm’s models predict U.S. equities will only return half of a percentage point in real terms over the next decade. Bloomberg’s Chris Nagi, a Bloomberg markets executive editor, also joins the conversation to discuss what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s “appropriate” comments mean for stocks.

Mentioned in this podcast: ‘Do They Have Enough Ammo?’: Markets Mull Potency of a Powell Put Pioneer of Yield-Curve Recession Indicator Says Don't Relax Yet Risk-On Is Back as Rally-Hungry Bulls Set Aside Trade Fears

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Investors hadn’t quite finished wrapping their heads around what the escalating trade tensions with China would mean for their portfolios when President Donald Trump lobbed another bombshell into markets: the threat of tariffs on all imports from Mexico unless the nation halts the flow of immigrants crossing the border into the U.S. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Brian Chappatta joins the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss the market’s reaction and why, despite the threat of higher prices from tariffs, investors are betting on lower interest rates. Also joining the show is Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, who describes her firm’s deep-dive research into how trade tensions will affect companies. They went through 500 conference-call transcripts over three quarters and lived to tell about it!

Mentioned in this podcast:  S&P 500 Is at Risk of a 10% Tumble as Trade Angst Deepens, RBC Says Bond Traders Start Panic Buying in New Yield OrderPimco Warns That Central Banks Can’t Rescue the Bond Market Wall Street’s Darkening Trade War Gloom Means Tossing Old Advice

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