Ukraine's manpower shortage is well known. Russia's challenge is different: not finding more soldiers, but deciding how far Vladimir Putin is willing to go to recruit them. Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline Lead Europe Analyst Alexander Lord and eminent Russia expert Professor Mark Galeotti to discuss the mobilisation dilemma that could determine the course of the war into 2027.

Read Mark Galeotti's newest book Forged in War - a military history of Russia from its beginnings to today. 

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In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline analysts Owen Williams and Lewis Galvin to examine why Washington is reconsidering Turkey’s return to the F-35 programme ahead of NATO’s summit in Ankara.

They discuss Turkey’s cooling relationship with Russia, its enduring value to NATO, the limits of any rapprochement, and why concerns over democratic backsliding are being outweighed by harder strategic calculations.

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In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Dr John Hemmings, Senior Adviser to the Pacific Forum and Jonah Kaplan, Principal Asia Pacific Analyst at Sibylline, to examine what recent conflicts may be teaching China's military planners.

Drawing lessons from the US, Israeli and Iranian conflicts, the discussion explores how Beijing is assessing American military capabilities, the growing role of artificial intelligence in warfare and the implications for future flashpoints such as Taiwan. The conversation concludes with an assessment of how these lessons could influence future Chinese strategy and the risks facing regional stability.

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#China #Taiwan #IndoPacific #ArtificialIntelligence #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead North America Analyst Lewis Galvin and Principal Middle East & Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe to unpack the recent Iran-US peace agreement and what it could mean for regional stability.

They examine the reported scope of the agreement, including the 60-day ceasefire extension, nuclear negotiations, sanctions relief discussions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The conversation explores whether the deal represents a genuine diplomatic breakthrough or simply a temporary pause in hostilities.

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#Iran #USIranRelations #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #StraitOfHormuz

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Alexander Lord, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, and Jonah Kaplan, Principal Asia Pacific Analyst, to examine the significance of Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea and what it reveals about shifting power dynamics in East Asia.

The discussion explores why China is reaffirming its relationship with Pyongyang at a time when North Korea is deepening ties with Russia. Marco, Alexander and Jonah assess the strategic importance of the visit, the growing cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang and Beijing's efforts to maintain its influence over one of its most important neighbours. They also examine the implications for regional security, North Korea's expanding military capabilities and the wider geopolitical competition shaping the Indo-Pacific. As China, Russia and North Korea draw closer together, the episode explores what this could mean for the United States, its allies and the future balance of power in the region.

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#China #NorthKorea #XiJinping #Geopolitics #IndoPacific

In this episode, Samuel McVicar is joined by Lead Middle East and Africa analyst Benedict Manzin to examine Ethiopia's recent parliamentary elections and the challenges facing the country as votes continue to be counted.

They discuss allegations of electoral fraud, delays in the voting process and the difficulties of holding elections in regions affected by conflict and insecurity. The conversation explores the complex political situation in Tigray, Amhara and Oromia, where armed groups and longstanding tensions have prevented millions from participating in the electoral process.

Read Sibylline's latest article on Ethiopia: Fuel shortages keep Ethiopian civil war at bay - Sibylline

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#Ethiopia #Africa #Geopolitics #PoliticalRisk #Elections

In this episode, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Middle East, North Africa and Turkey analyst Owen Williams and Europe analyst Magdalena Lembovska Young to examine Turkey’s increasingly fragile political landscape under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

They explore the growing pressure on Turkey’s democratic institutions, the use of the judiciary against political opponents and the mounting crackdown on dissent and protest movements. The discussion assesses whether Erdogan’s government is entering a more defensive and authoritarian phase after more than two decades in power.

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#Turkey #Erdogan #NATO #Geopolitics #Europe

In the latest episode of What Just Happened?, Eurasia Intelligence Analyst Karan Vassil and Cyber & Intelligence Analyst Denise Schipani examine Moscow’s growing efforts to emulate China with a more centralised and state-controlled internet, reviving levels of repression not seen since the Soviet era.

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In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Principal Analyst for North America Claire Brady and Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst Aédán Mordecai to examine the outcomes and implications of the recent Beijing Summit. They explore the current state of US-China relations, ongoing trade tensions and the strategic calculations shaping diplomatic engagement between the two powers. The discussion also assesses the significance of Taiwan within broader regional security dynamics. It examines how developments involving Iran and global trade routes are influencing policy decisions in both Washington and Beijing.

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#China #USChinaRelations #Geopolitics #Taiwan #GlobalTrade

On this episode, Sub-Saharan Africa analyst Edward Bach joins Samuel McVicar to discuss the recent attacks across Mali by al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in collaboration with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA; an ethnic-Tuareg secessionist group). These parties' capture of Kidal, their expanding control of northern Mali and the ongoing enforcement of a blockade around the capital represent the most serious threat to the Malian state in years. Edward Bach outlines the significant threat these conditions pose to access to key goods, law and order and the presidency of Assimi Goita. 

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