This year’s election was a very successful one for Democrats. What happens if they can sustain that success for another year? Tom says he’s advising his clients to swing for the fences, with polls showing Democrats might even have a chance at winning in districts Trump carried by 15 points just one year ago – which would be more than enough to flip the North Carolina State House, for the first time in over a decade.

Also, Tom assesses Donald Trump’s analysis of this year’s election results – partly right and partly wrong, he says – while Aaron asks if the shift in fortunes is due to turnout factors, or voters changing their minds. (A little from each column, most likely.)

97.9 The Hill WCHL and Chapelboro.com are your headquarters for local news and local voices in Chapel Hill-Carrboro. Every weekday morning, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck chats with government officials, UNC scholars, business and nonprofit leaders, area musicians, and others in our community as they share their thoughts, their experience, and their expertise on the central issues of today. Click here to listen back to all of Aaron’s conversations – and tune in to “This Morning with Aaron Keck” at 7:30 a.m. on 97.9 The Hill to hear those conversations live.

Every other Monday, Aaron is joined at 8:30 a.m. by Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, for a longstanding regular segment called “What We’re Thinking,” looking at recent survey numbers and discussing what they tell us about American public opinion – election-related and otherwise.

Listen:

The post What We’re Thinking: Blue Wave in 2026? appeared first on Chapelboro.com.

On Election Eve 2025, Tom and Aaron discuss the likely outcomes of this year’s highest-profile races. Nationally, Tom says it’s shaping up to be a good year for Democrats – just like it was in 2017, the first year of Donald Trump’s first presidential term. On the local level, it’s a different story – not because Republicans are pulling any surprises, but simply because it’s an extremely low-key election in Orange County, with only one contested race (for Chapel Hill Town Council) and no strong differences between the candidates.

97.9 The Hill WCHL and Chapelboro.com are your headquarters for local news and local voices in Chapel Hill-Carrboro. Every weekday morning, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck chats with government officials, UNC scholars, business and nonprofit leaders, area musicians, and others in our community as they share their thoughts, their experience, and their expertise on the central issues of today. Click here to listen back to all of Aaron’s conversations – and tune in to “This Morning with Aaron Keck” at 7:30 a.m. on 97.9 The Hill to hear those conversations live.

Every other Monday, Aaron is joined at 8:30 a.m. by Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, for a longstanding regular segment called “What We’re Thinking,” looking at recent survey numbers and discussing what they tell us about American public opinion – election-related and otherwise.

Listen:

The post What We’re Thinking: Previewing Election Night 2025, Nationally and Locally appeared first on Chapelboro.com.

This week, Tom and Aaron look ahead to the biggest elections this year across the nation – including gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, which Democrats are likely to win. Another race with potentially bigger national implications is a referendum on legislative redistricting in California: Democrats are also expected to win there, but the whole affair (there and in other states, like North Carolina) is raising the specter of gerrymandering in general. Is there any hope for actual reform in the near future?

97.9 The Hill WCHL and Chapelboro.com are your headquarters for local news and local voices in Chapel Hill-Carrboro. Every weekday morning, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck chats with government officials, UNC scholars, business and nonprofit leaders, area musicians, and others in our community as they share their thoughts, their experience, and their expertise on the central issues of today. Click here to listen back to all of Aaron’s conversations – and tune in to “This Morning with Aaron Keck” at 7:30 a.m. on 97.9 The Hill to hear those conversations live.

Every other Monday, Aaron is joined at 8:30 a.m. by Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, for a longstanding regular segment called “What We’re Thinking,” looking at recent survey numbers and discussing what they tell us about American public opinion – election-related and otherwise.

Listen:

The post What We’re Thinking: New Jersey, Virginia, and California appeared first on Chapelboro.com.

This week, Tom dissects the results of this year’s special elections, which bode well for Democrats in 2026. Democrats have been consistently outperforming their 2024 results by about 15 points this year; that’s usually held up for the midterm in past election cycles, and if that happens again this time around, Democrats are poised for a big year in 2026 – including here in North Carolina, where a 15-point swing would even give the Democrats an outside shot at regaining control of the State House, despite heavy partisan gerrymandering. (Also, Tom and Aaron briefly discuss whether Charlie Kirk’s assassination and the political discourse surrounding it have had any impact on American public opinion: Tom says it doesn’t seem to have changed anyone’s mind, but it could make some Americans more energized about participating and voting.)

97.9 The Hill WCHL and Chapelboro.com are your headquarters for local news and local voices in Chapel Hill-Carrboro. Every weekday morning, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck chats with government officials, UNC scholars, business and nonprofit leaders, area musicians, and others in our community as they share their thoughts, their experience, and their expertise on the central issues of today. Click here to listen back to all of Aaron’s conversations – and tune in to “This Morning with Aaron Keck” at 7:30 a.m. on 97.9 The Hill to hear those conversations live.

Every other Monday, Aaron is joined at 8:30 a.m. by Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, for a longstanding regular segment called “What We’re Thinking,” looking at recent survey numbers and discussing what they tell us about American public opinion – election-related and otherwise.

Listen:

The post What We’re Thinking: Special Elections, Gerrymandering, and 2026 appeared first on Chapelboro.com.

This week, Tom and Aaron take a break from national politics to discuss this year’s Chapel Hill election – a rather subdued one, with only six Town Council candidates and no major differences between them. (But how long will the quiet last? The last time a local election was this un-contentious was in 2013, and just two years later Chapel Hill saw its most intense campaign in a generation.)

97.9 The Hill WCHL and Chapelboro.com are your headquarters for local news and local voices in Chapel Hill-Carrboro. Every weekday morning, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck chats with government officials, UNC scholars, business and nonprofit leaders, area musicians, and others in our community as they share their thoughts, their experience, and their expertise on the central issues of today. Click here to listen back to all of Aaron’s conversations – and tune in to “This Morning with Aaron Keck” at 7:30 a.m. on 97.9 The Hill to hear those conversations live.

Every other Monday, Aaron is joined at 8:30 a.m. by Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, for a longstanding regular segment called “What We’re Thinking,” looking at recent survey numbers and discussing what they tell us about American public opinion – election-related and otherwise.

Listen:

The post What We’re Thinking: A Boring Local Election? appeared first on Chapelboro.com.

This week Tom speaks with Andrew Stuckey, filling in for Aaron Keck. They discuss Roy Cooper’s announced run for U.S. Senate, why he may be an ideal candidate, and other trends for North Carolina and the nation.

97.9 The Hill WCHL and Chapelboro.com are your headquarters for local news and local voices in Chapel Hill-Carrboro. Every weekday morning, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck chats with government officials, UNC scholars, business and nonprofit leaders, area musicians, and others in our community as they share their thoughts, their experience, and their expertise on the central issues of today. Click here to listen back to all of Aaron’s conversations – and tune in to “This Morning with Aaron Keck” at 7:30 a.m. on 97.9 The Hill to hear those conversations live.

Every other Monday, Aaron is joined at 8:30 a.m. by Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, for a longstanding regular segment called “What We’re Thinking,” looking at recent survey numbers and discussing what they tell us about American public opinion – election-related and otherwise.

The post What We’re Thinking: The Roy Cooper Effect appeared first on Chapelboro.com.

This week, Tom and Aaron discuss the public-opinion fallout from President Trump’s big budget measure – which Aaron is refusing to call the “Big Beautiful Bill,” not because of any feelings about the bill itself but because we should all stop dignifying the kitschy-cutesy titles that lawmakers so frequently stick on their pet proposals. (At least this one doesn’t involve a convoluted acronym!)

As for the measure itself: Americans aren’t feeling great about the bill, especially after they learn more about what’s in it. And there’s increasing evidence that the bill could have a sizable impact on the 2026 midterms, as Democratic messaging is starting to coalesce around opposition to it and some Republican voters are finding themselves directly (and negatively) affected by it.

97.9 The Hill WCHL and Chapelboro.com are your headquarters for local news and local voices in Chapel Hill-Carrboro. Every weekday morning, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck chats with government officials, UNC scholars, business and nonprofit leaders, area musicians, and others in our community as they share their thoughts, their experience, and their expertise on the central issues of today. Click here to listen back to all of Aaron’s conversations – and tune in to “This Morning with Aaron Keck” at 7:30 a.m. on 97.9 The Hill to hear those conversations live.

Every other Monday, Aaron is joined at 8:30 a.m. by Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, for a longstanding regular segment called “What We’re Thinking,” looking at recent survey numbers and discussing what they tell us about American public opinion – election-related and otherwise.

Listen:

The post What We’re Thinking: Whatever You Want To Call That Budget Bill appeared first on Chapelboro.com.

Thom Tillis isn’t running for reelection next year, and national pundits say that’s great for Democrats – but is it really? Tom and Aaron discuss polling that suggested Democrats were already likely to pick up that Senate seat in 2026 anyway, partly because Tillis was so unpopular even among GOP voters – so Tillis’ decision probably won’t move the dial as much as you might think. Also, Tom digs into Zohran Mamdani’s upset win in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, which PPP was the only major polling outfit to call correctly. (Which in turn makes WCHL the only news outlet in the country that covered the only pre-election survey that actually got the outcome right.)

97.9 The Hill WCHL and Chapelboro.com are your headquarters for local news and local voices in Chapel Hill-Carrboro. Every weekday morning, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck chats with government officials, UNC scholars, business and nonprofit leaders, area musicians, and others in our community as they share their thoughts, their experience, and their expertise on the central issues of today. Click here to listen back to all of Aaron’s conversations – and tune in to “This Morning with Aaron Keck” at 7:30 a.m. on 97.9 The Hill to hear those conversations live.

Every other Monday, Aaron is joined at 8:30 a.m. by Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, for a longstanding regular segment called “What We’re Thinking,” looking at recent survey numbers and discussing what they tell us about American public opinion – election-related and otherwise.

Listen: 

The post What We’re Thinking: Tillis Is Out, But Does It Matter? appeared first on Chapelboro.com.

Tom and Aaron discuss new polls from Virginia and New Jersey that suggest a big shift to the Democrats in 2025 – very similar to what we witnessed in 2017, ahead of a major ‘blue wave’ midterm election in Donald Trump’s first presidential term. Also, Tom notes a survey in New York City that’s probably an outlier – but if it’s not, it could signal another young rising star in Democratic politics.

97.9 The Hill WCHL and Chapelboro.com are your headquarters for local news and local voices in Chapel Hill-Carrboro. Every weekday morning, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck chats with government officials, UNC scholars, business and nonprofit leaders, area musicians, and others in our community as they share their thoughts, their experience, and their expertise on the central issues of today. Click here to listen back to all of Aaron’s conversations – and tune in to “This Morning with Aaron Keck” at 7:30 a.m. on 97.9 The Hill to hear those conversations live.

Every other Monday, Aaron is joined at 8:30 a.m. by Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, for a longstanding regular segment called “What We’re Thinking,” looking at recent survey numbers and discussing what they tell us about American public opinion – election-related and otherwise.

Listen: 

The post What We’re Thinking: 2017 Redux? appeared first on Chapelboro.com.

This week, Tom discusses data showing that Americans are reacting negatively to President Trump’s “big beautiful” budget bill – no surprise, as Americans tend to be skeptical of any big, transformative measure. (See also Obamacare, for instance.) That could bode well for Democrats, and poorly for Republicans, in the upcoming 2026 midterm – also no surprise, because we all went down this exact same road in 2018 after the GOP tried to make major changes to taxes and healthcare, the very issues at the heart of the current bill. (What might this mean for North Carolina? Tom says it could put some Congressional districts into play for Democrats, which had been explicitly designed and drawn so that they’d never be competitive.)

97.9 The Hill WCHL and Chapelboro.com are your headquarters for local news and local voices in Chapel Hill-Carrboro. Every weekday morning, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck chats with government officials, UNC scholars, business and nonprofit leaders, area musicians, and others in our community as they share their thoughts, their experience, and their expertise on the central issues of today. Click here to listen back to all of Aaron’s conversations – and tune in to “This Morning with Aaron Keck” at 7:30 a.m. on 97.9 The Hill to hear those conversations live.

Every other Monday, Aaron is joined at 8:30 a.m. by Tom Jensen, the director of Public Policy Polling, for a longstanding regular segment called “What We’re Thinking,” looking at recent survey numbers and discussing what they tell us about American public opinion – election-related and otherwise.

Listen: 

The post What We’re Thinking: One Big Beautiful Albatross appeared first on Chapelboro.com.