As preppers we tend to look at a total collapse scenario as a Mad Max or Walking dead type scenario. The truth is, there are far too many variables to say what it would be. So, what would a long term SHTF really look like?

I have heard it said that the more extreme the scenario, the less likely it is to happen. While this may be true, that doesn’t make it impossible. Throughout your life, you have probably witnessed or heard about things you never thought would happen. 911, Pearl Harbor and Nagasaki come to mind for me.

As preppers we prepare for the likely, as well as the unlikely, because it seems the more unlikely a disaster scenario is, the higher the stakes are. Because of this we need to be realistic about how the events might unfold, and how we may need to react.

SPP235 What Would a Long Term SHTF Event REALLY Look Like

This week in the show Lisa and I dug deep into some things that would cause a long term SHTF event, how things might unfold, and some of the variables we need to consider. While our survival is never guaranteed, preparedness is about learning and increasing our odds.

The 3 Major Variables

In any disaster scenario there are 3 variables that will change how things unfold. There variables are other people, the government(s), and yourself. Regardless of the disaster scenario, these will factor into how well, or not so well things go for you.

Other People: It’s probably no surprise to hear that other people will play a big role in how your situation goes. People have proven time and time again that when things get bad, they will do whatever it takes to survive.

Government: Whether we are talking about our government, or other countries governments stepping in, there will be some sort of government to deal with. The people in control will do whatever it takes to maintain power, and who knows what that looks like.

Yourself: The decisions we make, the skills we learn, and how prepared we are, will all play a role in how everything plays out. This is why being honest with yourself about your abilities and skills is so important.

What Would Cause a Long Term Event?

As I stated earlier, the odds of a large scale (country wide) disaster scenario are far less likely than a small scale disaster or personal doomsday, but this doesn’t mean we can ignore it. Just 3 years ago I would have said that the odds of an EMP were very low. Because of countries like Iran and North Korea, I can’t say that today.

In this article I wrote a while ago about possible disaster scenarios, I went over some events that could be both short term, and long term. Events such as an economic collapse, and EMP and war could be long term events.

It’s also important to note that a long term SHTF event could be cause by a combination of events. For example: if an EMP only took out the power grid on the west coast, it could mean devastating consequences for the economy.

Possible SHTF Timeline

In the show Lisa and I went over a SHTF timeline scenario. It’s hard to say exactly how things would unfold, but I think we all have a pretty good idea.