What's Not Priced In

Greg Canavan dives into the current state of the major US and Aussie stock indices in this episode of What’s Not Priced In... The prevailing downtrends are signaling a significant shift, with tight monetary policy already impacting market liquidity.

And it’s only just starting. Lacy Hunt’s latest quarterly outlook shows you the US economy is about the hit the wall.

This is crucial analysis because despite the recent market weakness, Lacy’s big picture views are certainly not priced in. Prepare for an in-depth exploration as I share key excerpts from his report, providing crucial insights into the potential challenges ahead.

Apologies in advance for the verbatim reading of Lacy's report, but the importance of gaining a comprehensive understanding of his foresight cannot be overstated.

For those unfamiliar of Lacy, do yourself a favour and read his latest work here: https://fattail.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/HIM2023Q3NP.pdf

Finally, we have a special guest, Ryan Dinse, joining the conversation to shed light on the best-performing global asset in 2023 and why he believes there's more to come.

If you want to find out more about what Ryan does, click this link: https://fattail.com.au/editor/ryan-dinse/

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

Ready to explore hidden gems in the world of junior miners? Join me in this episode as I interview James Cooper, Fat Tail Investment Research's resident geologist and seasoned commodities expert.

James and I delve into the current firesale of junior miners in Australia, dissecting the opportunities and potential risks. Is now the opportune moment to make a move? Find out in this episode of What's Not Priced In.

Topics covered in this episode:

- The dynamics driving the firesale of junior miners.

- James Cooper's expert insights on the current market conditions.

- Evaluating whether it's a strategic time to invest in junior miners.

- Unveiling potential hidden gems and risks in the junior mining sector.

Don't miss this informative discussion that goes beyond the surface and seeks to uncover what’s not priced in to this miner firesale.

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

In this special episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg shares a recent interview he did with South Australian Senator Alex Antic that has previously only been available to our paying subscribers.

With another example of the absurdity of the Net Zero push coming from AI, Greg believes it’s time to really drill into whether there is in fact a sound agenda behind this nonsensical energy transition. Enjoy…

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

Market jitters. Bond sell-offs. Extreme fear. Rising volatility. Panic at the disco? Panic or not, it’s certainly getting exciting. In the 20th episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and I cover the latest moves in the bond market, the Reserve Bank’s latest decision, fearful market sentiment, and the outlook for key commodities. Greg thinks markets are not at a capitulation low just yet and more volatility is in store. So is this a time for panic? Not necessarily. For the steadfast investor, now is a great time to look for discounts. 

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

Only 40 stocks in the ASX 200 are in the green this month. The rest are either neutral or in the red. Some, like Star Entertainment, are hitting all-time lows in September. Others, like Lake Resources and Brainchip, are registering new 52-week lows. Markets are blaming rising bond yields. So where do things stand? Will interest rates remain ‘higher for longer’ and further depress stock valuations? Or will the economy buckle under the high-interest rate regime, forcing central banks to cut rates? And will that really be a boon for markets (hint, no, it won’t). Are we entering a new bear market? And is there still room for a skilled stock picker to snag bargains? Greg Canavan and I covered all this and more in the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In. We also discussed a more pressing issue: Broncos or Panthers; Pies or Lions?

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

The US Fed held rates steady but flagged more tightening ahead. And markets finally caught on that the central bank is deadly serious about taming inflation. 

So are we entering a new era of 'higher for longer' interest rates? As Greg Canavan and I mentioned before, when consensus forms in markets, it pays to listen to your inner contrarian. Rising bond yields suggest investors are more confident inflation can return to target without a sharp slowdown. But how confident should investors really be? 

As Milton Friedman once said, it takes time for inflation to be cured and unpleasant side effects of the cure are unavoidable. What's not priced in? The extent of those side effects. 

Is inflation re-accelerating? Will rising oil prices push central banks to raise rates further? Is a recession now unlikely? And are markets overvalued? These are the meaty questions we grappled with this episode. As for what's not priced in? Recession remains a risk the market continues to under-price, at its peril. 

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

In this week’s episode of What’s Not Priced In, I interview data scientist Aiden Morrison. Aiden has been making waves on Twitter recently by digging into CSIRO and AEMO data to expose some major flaws in the energy transition. I was intrigued by his findings and asked him to come on and share what he has discovered. Without wanting to sound hyperbolic, the information will shock you. It is simply astounding that Australia is undertaking such a momentous shift in its energy policy without proper costings being done. If you are concerned for the future of this country, and want to see proper debate about the cost of this transition, please share this video. An informed electorate is the biggest danger to ideological decision-making. Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen constantly tell us that wind and solar are the cheapest forms of new electricity generation. As Aiden reveals, that claim looks like it’s based on a lie…enjoy

Earnings season is nearly over but everyone is talking about inflation. The latest monthly CPI reading came in lower than expected, and the market reacted well. But is this warranted? And what's the bond market telling us? 

Inflation IS cooling, but at hte expense of households. The US consumer is running down their savings and the amount Aussie households are putting into offset accounts is at multi-year lows. We then look at two big Aussie stocks -- Harvey Norman and Brambles. Are both overvalued? 

Finally, we turn to the energy transition and its costs. Greg explains the importance of a vital concept -- Energy Return on Investment -- and why it's vital for civilisation. A low energy return on investment is a low standard of living. 

What an episode we have for you this week -- filled with lots of stock analysis and hard-earned wisdom. Today, we assess the winners and losers of the reporting season so far. We profiled Coles, Woollies, Altium, WiseTech, Carsales, Data3, and Hub24. 

Even Domino's gets a mention -- the tech stock disguised as a pizza merchant. Or is it a pizza merchant disguised as a tech stock? 

Anyway! We then turn to one of the most important questions of them all -- when to sell stocks. 

Using his recent sell decisions as examples, Greg takes us through the sell process. In investing, as in life, it's OK to be wrong, not to stay wrong. 

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.