What's Not Priced In

In this special ‘bonus’ series of What’s Not Priced In, I look at the cost and implications of Australia’s energy transition from an economic and political perspective.

In general, this transition is blindly accepted as being inevitable, but there are few discussions around what it actually means and whether it makes sense or is even possible to shift to a renewables only economy. In this episode, I talk to Rob Parker, founder of Nuclear for Climate Australia. Rob uses the example of Ontario, Canada, as a model for Australia. The province has significant nuclear energy, no coal, and lower retail electricity costs than Australia. It’s an enlightening conversation and one you certainly won’t hear in the mainstream media. Enjoy…

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

Huge debt, ageing population -- is China past its peak? So ran a recent headline in The Australian. And usually when such headlines hit the front pages, the news is priced in. This episode, Greg and I assess the worries surrounding China's ailing economy. Do Aussie investors have anything to fret about? You'll have to watch the full episode, but Greg did warn the iron ore miners could see a downgrade cycle from here. We then discussed the overall market, pointing out that when valuations are stretched, it doesn't take much for things to snap. We ended with advice from Warren Buffett -- the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. 

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

Disinflation versus deflation. Momentum versus fundamentals. Price versus earnings. Today's episode is all about contrasts. 

We discuss the diverging economic fortunes of the US and China, momentum trading pulling valuations away from fundamentals, and the stagnant Aussie market. Greg then explains why commodities still offer long-term value, exploring some unloved but enticing mining services stocks. And finally, when the market is dull, pick up a book!

In this special ‘bonus’ series of What’s Not Priced In, I look at the cost and implications of Australia’s energy transition from an economic and political perspective. 

In general, this transition is blindly accepted as being inevitable, but there are few discussions around what it actually means and whether it makes sense or is even possible to shift to a renewables only economy. In this episode, I talk to Rob Parker, founder of Nuclear for Climate Australia. Rob uses the example of Ontario, Canada, as a model for Australia. The province has significant nuclear energy, no coal, and lower retail electricity costs than Australia. It’s an enlightening conversation and one you certainly won’t hear in the mainstream media. Enjoy…

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

There is no such thing as a free lunch. So don’t feast if you’re not prepared to foot the bill. With the market betting on a soft landing despite high interest rates winding their way through the economy, are markets expecting a free lunch? And are they prepared for when the bill comes due?

In today’s episode, we discuss the outlook for interest rates, stretched stock valuations, the significance of the low equity risk premium, US tech stocks, and moves in the energy market.

What’s not priced in? The cost of lunch. 

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

It's the stock valuation special! Two weeks ago we said we'd do an episode on valuation methods if viewers were interested. After leaving many enthusiastic comments, it looks like you were. So, here it is! In this episode Greg and I tackle one of the biggest questions of them all -- what is a stock worth? And how do you value it? Enjoy! 

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.

In this week’s episode, I talk to Katana Asset Management

Portfolio Manager Romano Sala Tenna. Katana has generated long term

outperformance (resulting in significant compounding effects) and is currenting

sitting on a 35% cash weighting. He explains why they are cautious on the

market right now and what it would take to put that cash to work. As well as

discussing the current state and outlook for markets both here and in the US,

we discuss the process behind the fund’s long term outperformance, and touch on

investor mindset and emotional awareness. Romano then gives us his take on

‘what’s not priced in’ right now. Finally, we finish on the concept of

suffering…and why you should accept it and learn from it…

Australia has a new Reserve Bank governor! But don't let that distract you from what matters. This episode, we ponder the the implications of the positive inflation data in the US. The key question is the cause behind the disinflation -- falling aggregate demand or normalising supply? The former doesn't bode well for markets. We then discussed the divergence between market fundamentals and stock valuations with real yields still high but stocks rising. The market always looks ahead, but how far is too much? Greg then takes us through some gold stocks, ending on a general discussion of his valuation approach. The takeaway? Remember, it's not a stock market but a market of stocks.

In today’s episode. Greg and I struggle to find the right analogy to explain the bullish sentiment over in the US. Are investors asleep at the wheel hurtling toward a hard economic reality? Greg thinks tech valuations are overstretched and his chart of the week illustrates why.

Turning to Australia, we discussed the much more grounded sentiment of Aussie investors. And that’s no surprise – the ASX 200 has gone nowhere in two years. We also covered the weakening Aussie dollar and the outlook for key commodities like copper and iron ore as China’s economic recovery continues to disappoint.

We finished with our stock of the week. No matter how you package it, the outlook isn’t great. 

The determining factor behind the gold price and what it says about the outlook for gold. Why real rates matter. The latest inflation and retail sales data. Retail stocks rebounded this week, but don't get too excited the bottom is in just yet. And we look at two stocks selling cheese and chicken. One of the stocks hasn’t aged nearly as well as a good Cheddar.

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory go here.

For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia.

Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch

Greg Canavan, Editorial Director - Fat Tail Investment Research

Kiryll Prakapenka, Analyst - Fat Tail Investment Research

All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved.

We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment Research has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on our recommendations, you should consider their appropriateness to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs. If you are uncertain as to what your objectives and needs are, you should contact a financial adviser or stockbroker who is licensed to provide you with personal financial product advice.

Financial Services Guide

Please keep this guide for future reference. A copy is available from us on request or can be downloaded from our website at fattail.com.au/financial-services-guide/. If you do not understand anything in it, or require more information, please feel free to contact us here.