MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan are pulling back slightly on posted bids although export pace remains steady. Basis has weakened from its mid-November peak but within the range of post-harvest levels. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. USDA WASDE confirmed the larger supplies the market has been trading in recent weeks. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market. Some quality concerns beginning to show from Australia and Argentina’scrops as protein issues are showing up in pockets with larger yields. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which are in mostly strong shape as of now. Over the next month markets will shift focus to demand and begin looking at deeper projections for the 2026/27 crop as much of the Northern Hemisphere winter crops are planted and what economics of spring plantings look like.

WHEAT OUTLOOK - DURUM

Statistics Canada placed the Canadian durum crop at 7.1MMT whichwas mostly in line with the range of estimates. Western Canadian bids have been mostly flat in recent weeks and the production figure for durum will not necessarily serve as a shock to the market as larger production was estimated from the Canadian durum crop. Demand is still fair and port stocks of 400,000 mt (467,000 mt last week) in the system tagged for export as of Week 18, with the majority of such sitting in Thunder Bay and St Lawrence systems. We will be watching European and North African weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3 MMT up from 8 MMT in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7 MMT last year and 6.2 MMT the year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5 MMT which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures of 7.1MMT. For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8 MMT in 2016. Aside from that 6.571 MMT would be the prior second place record in 2020, surpassed by 2025 production.