MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan were touching crop marketing year highs this past week for spring wheat. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped bring the markets higher. Strong export demand has elevators working to keep the product in their system. The USDA WASDE tacked on more production to global wheat balance sheets but keep in mind the usage levels were raised as well. The overall balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increases were somewhat anticipated by the market heading into the USDA’s report. The market wasanticipating at least slight bumps to Argentinian, Australian, Canadian, and Russian levels prior to the report's release. The ending stocks data is well illustrated in the charts below. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values are gaining ground. As always, demand needs to be watched closely as there are larger crops to be moving but if export pace remains on track, it could keep ending stocks from becoming burdensome in Canada. Markets have a good understanding of the global supplies, and we will finish off theAustralian and Argentinian harvests in the coming weeks. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Demand is the big item to watch on durum. Export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Italian buyers are cautious due to proposed pasta tariffs of 92 per cent into theUnited States, although these are expected to be postponed for the time being. They were initially threatened to take place in January. Markets will need to see import demand from Italy and North Africa as we head into winter season to keep bids stable. Saskatchewan durum bids are on average $8 CDN per tonne off the harvest lows set late September and are showing a flatline pace for the time being. There is anticipated to be ample supplies in the marketplace for the time being to meet current export demand. Quality is less than last year with 38 per cent of the durum in the #3 category and 15 per cent in #4 and #5 CWAD combined. Tunisia tendered for durum for the first time since the beginning of the year in January and came in at $323 to $326 per tonne for 100,000 tonnes.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Markets have recently bumped higher thanks to renewed Chinese demand in U.S. wheat. Trade rumours throughout the beginning of the week first sparked the markets interest and held steady once the word of the two cargos were secured. Argentinian and Australian harvest is underway, and the crops appear to be getting bigger vs smaller. Some reports that Argentina’s 22 mmt crop could be on the light side of production. Quality appears good with some light frost damage in regions but will likely not affect the overall crop. Australia’s crop in the Western region tacked on 1 mmt of tonnage in a recent report. Demand for North American wheat is holding up well as Canadian and U.S. crop exports ahead of last years levels even a few months now into the new crop marketing campaign. Demand is the big figure to be watching going forwards, although it appears to be pricing itself well as global wheat bids are stable to higher. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies have been increasing and basis on the Canadian prairies is doing the heavy lifting (see chart below) and we are still on hold for making big sales for now but are beginning to show interest in some small moves as cashflow and logistics dictate. As we head into winter, another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S winter wheat crops.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Global durum markets will begin to look at how the European and North African crops begin to shape up as we enter winter season. Export pace continues to be strong but will need to continue its trajectory. EU import pace is up 28 per cent year-over-year but below the five-year average. Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria in October helped boost export sentiment. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 39 bpa average for durum vs a 34 bpa average just one year ago. Market prices are flat recently, up off the harvest lows and touching $8.00 in some further eastern prairie regions. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Quality of the crop is a bit of an issue vs last year as there is more durum in the #3 and lower categories. #1 durum carrying a premium in the domestic market. Global import demand expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last years 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Markets leaving the contract lows a little further in the rearview mirror for Chicago and Kansas City wheat. Minneapolis wheat struggling to keep pace relative to Chicago and Kansas City. Overall, wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops. Argentinian and Australian harvest is underway, and the crops appear to be getting bigger vs smaller. Argentina’s initial crop harvest reports are that yields are better than anticipated. Australia’s crop in the Western region tacked on 1 mmt of tonnage anticipated and will keep the bulls somewhat limited as there is a bigger crop to chew through. Demand for North American wheat holding up well as Canadian and U.S. crop exports are ahead of last year's pace. Demand is the big figure to be watching going forward. Market will be looking to see if we can ramp up Russian/Black Sea shipments as there is a sizeable crop to move out of that region as well. Global wheat bids are stable to higher. We are transitioning into winter exporting season for northern hemisphere producers. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies have been increasing and basis on the Canadian prairies is doing the heavy lifting (see chart below).  We are still on hold for making big sales for now but are beginning to show interest as we see cash bids continue to improve. As we head into winter another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria in October will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with the Sask. provincial crop report pointing to a 39 BPA average for durum vs a 34 BPA average just one year ago. Market prices have picked up since harvest lows and are touching $8.00 in somefurther eastern prairie regions. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Quality of the crop is a bit of an issue vs last year as there is more durum in the #3 and lower categories. #1 durum is carrying a premium in the domestic market. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year's 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been keeping a good pace and pricing well into EU and NorthAfrica.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Wheat markets picking up ground this week and leaving the contract lows a little further in the rearview mirror for Chicago and Kansas City wheat. Minneapolis wheat has its lows a littlecloser as new ones were set last week. Minneapolis wheat in Monday’s trade action at the close is also the weakest of the contracts, with Chicago and Kansas City up double digits while Minneapolis wheat is struggling to hold onto its gains for the session. Overall, wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops. Argentinian and Australian harvest is underway, and the coming weeks will determine the crop size. The market well understands that these two nations have big crops coming and the market will look forconfirmation of these figures. Demand is the big figure to be watching. U.S. and Canadian demand appear very strong for early in the shipping season and Canadian wheat is being exported at a very rapid pace with what looks to be good export outlook for the near future as well. The market will be looking to see if we can expedite Russian/Black Sea shipments as there is a sizeable crop to move out of that region. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some fewdollar moves in FOB values each week but relative stability. We are transitioning into winter exporting season for northern hemisphere producers. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies still have been increasing and basis on the Canadian prairies is doing the heavy lifting. We are still on hold for making big sales for now but are beginning to show interest if we see cash bids continue to improve. As we head into winter another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41 bpa average for durum vs a 33 bpa average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently domestically following harvest lows. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.75+ per bushel range across Saskatchewan and have picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year’s 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop is at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing wellinto EU and North Africa.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Wheat futures markets still hover near their five-year lows and futures on the front month Minneapolis contract sit at $5.49 per bushel. The last time wheat futures were at this level was December of 2020. Kansas City and Chicago wheat finding a bit more ground recently, although contract lows remain very close in the rearview mirror. Wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops and the recent upgrades to Argentinian wheat production levels and anticipation that the Australian crop could grow vs shrink in size has wheat markets resistant to make a move higher. The market will need to make its moves higher on demand related stories. North American demand Is perceived as just fine with both U.S. demand forecasted to be strong and Canadian export pace being rapid. European and Black Sea shipping pace is behind pace, and we will need to see true demandpick up out of the region. There are a few key importers behind pace on imports, and we need to see these importers step up to the plate to keep demand moving forwards. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some few-dollar moves in FOB values each week but relative stability. We will move out of harvest pressure in northern hemisphere and transition into winter exporting season. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies sit just below $7 and we are still on hold for making big sales as we hover and trod along our five-yearlows. Strong demand for CWRS is anticipated throughout the winter, we will be watching if U.S. trade deals or MOUs with nations such as Bangladesh on wheat pull from Canadian demand. As we head into winter another item to watch will beany drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

The Canadian durum crop has grown through harvest as later estimates point towards a larger crop. Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41BPA average for durum vs a 33 BPA average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently domestically following harvest lows. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.50 to $7.75+ per bushel range across Saskatchewan andhave picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year’s 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing well into EU and North Africa.

Market Outlook - Wheat

• Wheat futures markets still hover near their five-year lows and futures on the front month Minneapolis contract sit at $5.52 per bushel. The last time wheat futures were at this level was December of 2020. Wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops and the recent upgrades to Argentinian wheat production levels and anticipation that the Australian crop could grow vs shrink in size has wheat markets resistant to make a move higher. The market will need to make its moves higher on demand related stories. North American demand is perceived as just fine with both U.S. demand forecasted to be strong and Canadian export pace being rapid. European and Black Sea shipping pace is behind pace, and we will need to see true demand pick up out of the region. There are a few key importers behind pace on imports, and we need to see these importers step up to the plate to keep demand moving forwards. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some few dollar moves in FOB values each week but relatively stable. We will move out of harvest pressure in the northern hemisphere and transition into winter exporting season. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies sit just below $7.00 and we are still on hold for making big sales as we hover and trod along our five-year lows. Strong demand for CWRS is anticipated throughout the winter, we will be watching if U.S. trade deals or MOUs with nations such as Bangladesh on wheat pull from Canadian demand. As we head into winter another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops. Russia has some severe drought in the Rostov region, and any weather stories typically are reflected quickly in the market if notable tonnage is at risk.

Market Outlook - Durum

• The Canadian durum crop has grown through harvest as later estimates point towards a larger crop. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41 bpa average for durum vs a 33 bpa average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently, and export pace has kept up to last year's pace so far. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.50 to $7.75 per bushel range across Saskatchewan and have picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year's 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. The EU crop is at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing well into EU and North Africa. We are watching this trend closely and keeping an eye on export shipments in a proactive manner to analyse the movements.

Oct. 6

Market Outlook – Wheat

Wheat futures markets remain at levels not seen in around five years. New contract lows were made once again for both European and North American futures. Wheat markets have been digesting the larger crop sentiment for about a month now and there is a good understanding that the Australian and Argentinian crops will be of good quality. We have seen a stabilizing and even a slight increase in some cases in global wheat bids from export locations and there is the rolling idea that although many key regions are behind on exports, we know that import demand is forecasted to come to the market by many key agencies. Algeria’s large-scale purchase of 600,000 tonnes and some other more business being completed at these levels has importers beginning to see the value of the crop available to them. This reinforces that the market is of the notion that although global crop sizes have increased, global demand is still there. We remain hesitant to make major sales at the current time amidst harvest pressure and typical seasonality of markets.

Market Outlook – Durum

Canadian crop size has been increasing as producers get into harvest with Statistics Canada estimating the crop at 6.5 mmt up from 6.1 mmt in the August estimate. The crop size is larger than last year's total volume. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year's 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop is at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing well into EU and North Africa. We are watching this trend closely and keeping an eye on export shipments in a proactive manner to analyse the movements.

Market Outlook – Wheat

Wheat futures markets to levels not seen in around five years. Wheat markets have been digesting the larger crop sentiment for about a month now and there is a good understanding that the Australian and Argentinian crops will be of good quality. We have seen a stabilizing and even a slight increase in global wheat bids from export locations and there is the rolling idea that although many key regions are behind on exports, we know that import demand isforecasted to come to the market by many key agencies. The market is of the notion that although global crop sizes have increased, global demand is still there. We remain hesitant to make major sales at the current time amidst harvest pressure and typical seasonality of markets.

Market Outlook – Durum

Canadian crop size has been increasing as producers get into harvest, with Statistics Canada estimating the crop at 6.5 mmt up from 6.1 mmt in their August estimate. The crop size is larger than last years’ total volume. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2mmt last year to 8.6mmt this year, with larger global production being penciled in at 37.2mmt vs last year’s 36.4mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5mmt of that. The EU crop is estimated at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Global ending stocks this year are expected to be at 7.5mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Quality of durum unharvested in thefields of the Canadian prairies could become a market factor if we begin to see degrading factors from the durum crop that was yet to come off before the rain event.

Market Outlook – Wheat

Wheat markets continue to grind near their contract lows on the futures markets and sit at levels which were previously seen in early 2021. Markets have a better understanding of wheat supplies now that the European, Black Sea, United States and Canadian crops are either off or close to wrappingup their harvest season. Recent USDA, Statistics Canada, ABARES and private reports confirm that global supplies have grown from earlier season reports. Australiancrops look favourable and have seen some major improvements in the past two months. The Argentinian crop looks great and that story will play out in the coming months as well. There is a lack of any major concerns for the market to work with right now and it has kept any movement sideways to lower. Demand is the item being watched as export pace is slow in some regions and reports of buyers remaining on the sidelines seeing how low prices may move before making any major commitments. With supplies relatively well understood, we will need to see stories build on the demand side. The next thing the market will watch as we move throughout the calendar will be EU and Black Sea winter crop planting. Nothing major to report there yet.

Market Outlook – Durum

Canadian producers will need to see strong export demand throughout the marketing year. Canadian durum is expected to be of good quality for export but will need to remain competitive globally. European production is estimated at 8.3 mmt vs last years’ 7.2 mmt which has weighed on EU prices. Global durum carryout is expected to jump to 7 mmt,up by 400,000 tonnes over last years’ ending stock estimate. Canadian durum crop size estimated by the International Grains Council (IGC) is at 5.8 mmt. However, Statistics Canada’s latest release has the figure closer to 6.1 mmt.Canadian durum values are under harvest pressure as supplies become available to the market.