MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Western Canadian cash wheat bids lost $1 per tonne week over week but remain in the trading range for cash values we have seen since late November. Western Canadian bids for producers have been quite steady overall with limited moves to the upside. Basis has been found to strengthen when futures weaken in Central SK values. Producers continue to fill the system with wheat around these values as producer deliveries and exports continue at a steady pace, although slightly behind where we were heading into the new year. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining itscompetitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will begin to shift its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States in the coming months. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that are being presented as Argentina and Australia wrap up their harvests. For Western Canadian wheat values, we are anticipating a neutral outlook for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market. Producers may want to pencil the Feb. 6, 2026, Stocks of Principal Field Crop Acres Report into their calendars. The report will be the next large fundamental CDN data available for markets to trade upon.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. Right now, we are in a demand driven market with limited production news to send market in either direction.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Western Canadian cash wheat bids grabbed $2 per tonne week-over-week but remain in the trading range for cash values we have seen since late November. Producers continue to fill the system with wheat around these values as producer deliveries and exports continue at a steady pace. Exports were down week-over-week to some of the lowest values of the year. 224,000 tonnes (525,500 tonnes week prior) left the borders in Week 22, but holiday trade could be blamed partly for that move. Canadian wheat needs to remain competitive into the world market and a growing supply of wheat globallywill cap major moves to the upside. Market sits comfortably for the time beingbut will begin to shift its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States in the coming months. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of theincreased stocks that are being presented as Argentina and Australia wrap up their harvests. Fully updated charts below in this week’s report from today's USDA WASDE and FAS reports. Western Canadian wheat market outlook remains relatively neutral for the current time.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for Western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African, Mediterranean, and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. Right now, we are in a demand driven market.
If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link: https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash wheat bids across western Canada begin 2026 in a similar spot to where they ended out the late December trade. Similar cash bids are being shown to producers and producers have been willing to sell into these markets as exports continue to move out of the nation at a speedy pace. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Western Canadian producers continue to ponder the crops they sell, and wheat has been a relatively quick to move crop for producers as delivery windows have been readily available. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. Russia, Argentina, Australia and Canada’s crops came in larger than initial market expectations, but the market has known this data for several weeks, even months in the cases of Russia and Canada. The crop prices overall have continued to be relatively flat as the market has not had to fight to find supplies. The next majorreports released will be the Jan. 12, 2026, USDA WASDE + FAS reports and Statistics Canada’s Feb. 6, 2026, report which will feature estimates on Dec. 31, 2025, crop inventories.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

As we enter the new year, durum markets will get a better sense of how the crop marketing year could potentially finish off.  Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong compared to where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum, and we will need to seehow demand into some of our key players forecasts out. We will also begin to get a full view of how Northern African and EU winter crops are shaping up in our 2026 forecasts.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan pulled back at the start of last week on some weakness in futures, but as we enter the last few days of December, posted bids on stronger basis appear to be enticing grain into the system yet. This is showcasing relative strength for Canadian exportable wheat as the futures values have remained near their lows and with Minneapolis spring wheat setting new contract lows last week, prairie cash bids have remained relatively flat. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. The Argentinian and Australian crop harvest is nearly completed, and the market will shift to other news shortly. Market focus will turn to demand signals from the market and how the ending balance sheets might play out at the end of the marketing year. Next up we will be keeping a close eye on European, Black Sea and North American winter wheat crops. The wheat market will also face influence from overall futuresmarket movement.  

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

As we enter the new year, durum markets will get a better sense of how the crop marketing year could potentially finishoff.  Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong vs. where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Great Lake traffic will stall in January for a few months as the system undergoes its normal winter pause and we will see continued movement off our west coast terminals. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of ourkey players forecasts out. We will also begin to get a full view of how Northern African and EU winter crops are shaping up in our 2026 forecasts.

A MESSAGE FROM EXCEED

We are honoured to be able to bring you the global wheat market outlook each week. We are excited for what 2026 has in store and look forwards to bringing top quality data to readers and listeners each week. Next market report will be Jan. 5, 2026.

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan are pulling back slightly on posted bids although export pace remains steady. Basis has weakened from its mid-November peak but within the range of post-harvest levels. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. USDA WASDE confirmed the larger supplies the market has been trading in recent weeks. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market. Some quality concerns beginning to show from Australia and Argentina’scrops as protein issues are showing up in pockets with larger yields. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which are in mostly strong shape as of now. Over the next month markets will shift focus to demand and begin looking at deeper projections for the 2026/27 crop as much of the Northern Hemisphere winter crops are planted and what economics of spring plantings look like.

WHEAT OUTLOOK - DURUM

Statistics Canada placed the Canadian durum crop at 7.1MMT whichwas mostly in line with the range of estimates. Western Canadian bids have been mostly flat in recent weeks and the production figure for durum will not necessarily serve as a shock to the market as larger production was estimated from the Canadian durum crop. Demand is still fair and port stocks of 400,000 mt (467,000 mt last week) in the system tagged for export as of Week 18, with the majority of such sitting in Thunder Bay and St Lawrence systems. We will be watching European and North African weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3 MMT up from 8 MMT in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7 MMT last year and 6.2 MMT the year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5 MMT which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures of 7.1MMT. For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8 MMT in 2016. Aside from that 6.571 MMT would be the prior second place record in 2020, surpassed by 2025 production.

Market Outlook – Wheat

Cash markets in Saskatchewan are pulling back slightly from their late November peak. Basis has weakened slightly overthe past week but within the range of post-harvest levels. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. USDA WASDE and FAS reports will be closely watched by the markets tomorrow. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market, and these crops continue to grow with the updated Argentinian and Australian figures. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which is in mostly strong shape as of now. Over the next month markets will shift focus to demand and begin looking at deeper projections for the 2026/27 crop as much of the Northern Hemisphere winter crops are planted.

Market Outlook – Durum

Statistics Canada placed the Canadian durum crop at 7.1MMT which was mostly in line with the range of estimates. Western Canadian bids have been mostly flat in recent weeks and the production figure for durum will not necessarily serve as a shock to the market as larger production was estimated from the Canadian durum crop. Demand is still fair and port stocks of 467tmt in the system tagged for export as of Week 17 with most sitting in the Thunder Bay and St. Lawrence systems. We will be watching European and North African weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3MMT up from 8MMT in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7MMT last year and 6.2MMT year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5MMT which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures of 7.1MMT.  For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8MMT in 2016. Aside from that 6.57MMT would be the prior second place record in 2020, surpassed by 2025 production.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan are floating around their crop marketing year highs but appear to be sitting comfortable atthe values posted. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped keep the markets higher. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a fewmonths ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values have been gaining ground. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market, and these crops continue to grow with the updated Argentinian and Australian figures. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into thecoming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which in mostly strong shape as of now.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Demand remains the big item to watch on durum. Export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Western Canadian bids are flattening in the past few weeks and have not seen as much post-harvest market appreciation as spring wheat. We will be watching European winter weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. Demand is anticipated to be less than last year, but markets will watch to see if we maintain anticipated pace or move on either side of it. Statistics Canada crop production estimates are out on Thursday and will be very closely watched byglobal markets to see how the crop shapes up compared to estimates. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3 mmt up from 8.0 mmt in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7.0 mmt last year and 6.2 mmt the year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5 mmt which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures. Stats Canada has the Canadian durum crop at 6.5 mmt in its Sept. 17, 2025 satellite imagery-based report. Statistics Canada will release official estimate of the 2025 crop size totals in its Dec. 4, 2025 report. For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8 mmt in 2016. Aside from that, 6.571 would be the second-place record in 2020.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan are touching crop marketing year highs once again this past week for spring wheat. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped keep the markets higher before pulling back slightly into the weekend. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavierthan it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values have been gaining ground. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head intothe coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which are in mostly strong shape as of now.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Demand remains the big item to watch on durum. The export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Western Canadian bids were flattening in the past week and have not seen as much post harvest market appreciation as spring wheat. We will be watching European winter weather conditions for the durum production regions over there.Demand is anticipated to be less than last year, but markets will watch to see if we maintain anticipated pace or move on either side of it. Statistics Canada crop production estimates out next week will be very closely watched by global markets to see how the crop shapes up compared to estimates.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan were touching crop marketing year highs this past week for spring wheat. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped bring the markets higher. Strong export demand has elevators working to keep the product in their system. The USDA WASDE tacked on more production to global wheat balance sheets but keep in mind the usage levels were raised as well. The overall balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increases were somewhat anticipated by the market heading into the USDA’s report. The market wasanticipating at least slight bumps to Argentinian, Australian, Canadian, and Russian levels prior to the report's release. The ending stocks data is well illustrated in the charts below. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values are gaining ground. As always, demand needs to be watched closely as there are larger crops to be moving but if export pace remains on track, it could keep ending stocks from becoming burdensome in Canada. Markets have a good understanding of the global supplies, and we will finish off theAustralian and Argentinian harvests in the coming weeks. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Demand is the big item to watch on durum. Export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Italian buyers are cautious due to proposed pasta tariffs of 92 per cent into theUnited States, although these are expected to be postponed for the time being. They were initially threatened to take place in January. Markets will need to see import demand from Italy and North Africa as we head into winter season to keep bids stable. Saskatchewan durum bids are on average $8 CDN per tonne off the harvest lows set late September and are showing a flatline pace for the time being. There is anticipated to be ample supplies in the marketplace for the time being to meet current export demand. Quality is less than last year with 38 per cent of the durum in the #3 category and 15 per cent in #4 and #5 CWAD combined. Tunisia tendered for durum for the first time since the beginning of the year in January and came in at $323 to $326 per tonne for 100,000 tonnes.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Markets have recently bumped higher thanks to renewed Chinese demand in U.S. wheat. Trade rumours throughout the beginning of the week first sparked the markets interest and held steady once the word of the two cargos were secured. Argentinian and Australian harvest is underway, and the crops appear to be getting bigger vs smaller. Some reports that Argentina’s 22 mmt crop could be on the light side of production. Quality appears good with some light frost damage in regions but will likely not affect the overall crop. Australia’s crop in the Western region tacked on 1 mmt of tonnage in a recent report. Demand for North American wheat is holding up well as Canadian and U.S. crop exports ahead of last years levels even a few months now into the new crop marketing campaign. Demand is the big figure to be watching going forwards, although it appears to be pricing itself well as global wheat bids are stable to higher. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies have been increasing and basis on the Canadian prairies is doing the heavy lifting (see chart below) and we are still on hold for making big sales for now but are beginning to show interest in some small moves as cashflow and logistics dictate. As we head into winter, another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S winter wheat crops.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Global durum markets will begin to look at how the European and North African crops begin to shape up as we enter winter season. Export pace continues to be strong but will need to continue its trajectory. EU import pace is up 28 per cent year-over-year but below the five-year average. Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria in October helped boost export sentiment. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 39 bpa average for durum vs a 34 bpa average just one year ago. Market prices are flat recently, up off the harvest lows and touching $8.00 in some further eastern prairie regions. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Quality of the crop is a bit of an issue vs last year as there is more durum in the #3 and lower categories. #1 durum carrying a premium in the domestic market. Global import demand expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last years 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive.