Wheat Market Outlook

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT

Wheat futures had a strong showing this past week and have translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the prairies. Canadian wheat domestic price targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Some buying of futures in the market has reduced overall managed money short positions. Some weather scares and repositioning by traders as the wheat crop ending stocks and forecasts do not look as burdensome as they once did just a month ago. The market is entering an interesting time here shortly as it will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state by state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that is when we will know best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitivegoing forwards.

MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM

The overall price outlook for durum appears relatively flat as it has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall, and the crop prospects are sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Wheat futures have had a strong showing this past week and has translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the Prairies. Canadian wheat domestic prices are up $8 to $10 CDN per tonne week-over-week for posted bids and targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Some buying of futures in the market has reduced overall managed money short positions. Some weather scares and repositioning by traders as the wheat crop ending stocks and forecasts do not look as burdensome as they once did just a month ago. The market is entering an interesting time here shortly as it will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state-by-state analytics in the periodical updates are provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that’s when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitive as U.S. export values have dropped recently.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

The price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum, plus how the North African and Mediterranean and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall, and the crop prospect is sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Bids to Canadian prairie producers have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States when they do begin to break dormancy into April. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state-by-state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that’s when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for Western Canadian wheat values, we are continuing to anticipate a neutral market for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market and global supplies have grown but are well understood. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain competitive as U.S. export values have dropped recently. Anticipating sideways markets for the near future.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong versus where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. The market will also turn attention to the Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring. Markets remain in a demand driven market, with limited production news to send market in either direction.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Bids to Canadian Prairie producers have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States. All initial reports for these areas remain mostly positive as they are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state by state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that is when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for Western Canadian wheatvalues, we are continuing to anticipate a neutral market for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market and global supplies have grown but are well understood. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. We expect sideways markets for the near future.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key markets forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European Union crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions. Markets remain in a demand driven market with limited production news to send the market in either direction.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates, follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Western Canadian export wheat bids picked up another $2 per tonne week-over-week off the west coast, after snagging $2 the week prior. Inland bids have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. Wheat markets were watching for winterkill news out of the Black Sea or U.S. wheat production regions this past week, but that weather risk has fell off. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus on winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for westernCanadian wheat values, we are continuing to anticipate a neutral market for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand-driven market and global supplies have grown as Australia and Argentina wrapped up their harvest. Producers will want to pencil this Friday, Feb. 6, 2026, Stocks of Principal Field Crop Report into their calendars. The report will be the next large fundamental CDN data available for markets to trade upon and is just on the horizon. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs. where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions. Markets remain in a demand driven market, with limited production news to send the market in either direction.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates, followthe link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Western Canadian export wheat bids picked up $2 per tonne week-over-week at the port and seeing some similar strength at inland locations. Bids have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed. The markets are watching if cold weather in the United States and Black Sea wheat production regions will threaten any crop conditions in these areas. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in Black Sea, European Union and United States. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for Western Canadian wheat values, we are anticipating a neutral outlook for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market and global supplies have grown as Australia and Argentina wrapped up their harvest. Producers will want to pencil Feb. 6, 2026, Stocks of Principal Field Crop Report into their calendars. The report will be the next large fundamental CDN data available for markets to trade upon and is just on the horizon. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. The gap between USA and CDN West Coast bids narrowed week over-week.  

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions. Markets remain in a demand driven market. With limited production news to send market in either direction.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Western Canadian cash wheat bids lost $1 per tonne week over week but remain in the trading range for cash values we have seen since late November. Western Canadian bids for producers have been quite steady overall with limited moves to the upside. Basis has been found to strengthen when futures weaken in Central SK values. Producers continue to fill the system with wheat around these values as producer deliveries and exports continue at a steady pace, although slightly behind where we were heading into the new year. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining itscompetitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will begin to shift its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States in the coming months. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that are being presented as Argentina and Australia wrap up their harvests. For Western Canadian wheat values, we are anticipating a neutral outlook for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market. Producers may want to pencil the Feb. 6, 2026, Stocks of Principal Field Crop Acres Report into their calendars. The report will be the next large fundamental CDN data available for markets to trade upon.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. Right now, we are in a demand driven market with limited production news to send market in either direction.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Western Canadian cash wheat bids grabbed $2 per tonne week-over-week but remain in the trading range for cash values we have seen since late November. Producers continue to fill the system with wheat around these values as producer deliveries and exports continue at a steady pace. Exports were down week-over-week to some of the lowest values of the year. 224,000 tonnes (525,500 tonnes week prior) left the borders in Week 22, but holiday trade could be blamed partly for that move. Canadian wheat needs to remain competitive into the world market and a growing supply of wheat globallywill cap major moves to the upside. Market sits comfortably for the time beingbut will begin to shift its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States in the coming months. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of theincreased stocks that are being presented as Argentina and Australia wrap up their harvests. Fully updated charts below in this week’s report from today's USDA WASDE and FAS reports. Western Canadian wheat market outlook remains relatively neutral for the current time.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for Western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key players forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and, plus how the North African, Mediterranean, and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. Right now, we are in a demand driven market.
If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link: https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash wheat bids across western Canada begin 2026 in a similar spot to where they ended out the late December trade. Similar cash bids are being shown to producers and producers have been willing to sell into these markets as exports continue to move out of the nation at a speedy pace. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Western Canadian producers continue to ponder the crops they sell, and wheat has been a relatively quick to move crop for producers as delivery windows have been readily available. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. Russia, Argentina, Australia and Canada’s crops came in larger than initial market expectations, but the market has known this data for several weeks, even months in the cases of Russia and Canada. The crop prices overall have continued to be relatively flat as the market has not had to fight to find supplies. The next majorreports released will be the Jan. 12, 2026, USDA WASDE + FAS reports and Statistics Canada’s Feb. 6, 2026, report which will feature estimates on Dec. 31, 2025, crop inventories.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

As we enter the new year, durum markets will get a better sense of how the crop marketing year could potentially finish off.  Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong compared to where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum, and we will need to seehow demand into some of our key players forecasts out. We will also begin to get a full view of how Northern African and EU winter crops are shaping up in our 2026 forecasts.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan pulled back at the start of last week on some weakness in futures, but as we enter the last few days of December, posted bids on stronger basis appear to be enticing grain into the system yet. This is showcasing relative strength for Canadian exportable wheat as the futures values have remained near their lows and with Minneapolis spring wheat setting new contract lows last week, prairie cash bids have remained relatively flat. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. The Argentinian and Australian crop harvest is nearly completed, and the market will shift to other news shortly. Market focus will turn to demand signals from the market and how the ending balance sheets might play out at the end of the marketing year. Next up we will be keeping a close eye on European, Black Sea and North American winter wheat crops. The wheat market will also face influence from overall futuresmarket movement.  

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

As we enter the new year, durum markets will get a better sense of how the crop marketing year could potentially finishoff.  Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada and exports are strong vs. where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Great Lake traffic will stall in January for a few months as the system undergoes its normal winter pause and we will see continued movement off our west coast terminals. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum grain, and we will need to see how demand into some of ourkey players forecasts out. We will also begin to get a full view of how Northern African and EU winter crops are shaping up in our 2026 forecasts.

A MESSAGE FROM EXCEED

We are honoured to be able to bring you the global wheat market outlook each week. We are excited for what 2026 has in store and look forwards to bringing top quality data to readers and listeners each week. Next market report will be Jan. 5, 2026.