Wheat Market Outlook

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan are pulling back slightly on posted bids although export pace remains steady. Basis has weakened from its mid-November peak but within the range of post-harvest levels. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system at current levels. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. USDA WASDE confirmed the larger supplies the market has been trading in recent weeks. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market. Some quality concerns beginning to show from Australia and Argentina’scrops as protein issues are showing up in pockets with larger yields. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which are in mostly strong shape as of now. Over the next month markets will shift focus to demand and begin looking at deeper projections for the 2026/27 crop as much of the Northern Hemisphere winter crops are planted and what economics of spring plantings look like.

WHEAT OUTLOOK - DURUM

Statistics Canada placed the Canadian durum crop at 7.1MMT whichwas mostly in line with the range of estimates. Western Canadian bids have been mostly flat in recent weeks and the production figure for durum will not necessarily serve as a shock to the market as larger production was estimated from the Canadian durum crop. Demand is still fair and port stocks of 400,000 mt (467,000 mt last week) in the system tagged for export as of Week 18, with the majority of such sitting in Thunder Bay and St Lawrence systems. We will be watching European and North African weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3 MMT up from 8 MMT in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7 MMT last year and 6.2 MMT the year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5 MMT which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures of 7.1MMT. For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8 MMT in 2016. Aside from that 6.571 MMT would be the prior second place record in 2020, surpassed by 2025 production.

Market Outlook – Wheat

Cash markets in Saskatchewan are pulling back slightly from their late November peak. Basis has weakened slightly overthe past week but within the range of post-harvest levels. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. USDA WASDE and FAS reports will be closely watched by the markets tomorrow. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market, and these crops continue to grow with the updated Argentinian and Australian figures. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which is in mostly strong shape as of now. Over the next month markets will shift focus to demand and begin looking at deeper projections for the 2026/27 crop as much of the Northern Hemisphere winter crops are planted.

Market Outlook – Durum

Statistics Canada placed the Canadian durum crop at 7.1MMT which was mostly in line with the range of estimates. Western Canadian bids have been mostly flat in recent weeks and the production figure for durum will not necessarily serve as a shock to the market as larger production was estimated from the Canadian durum crop. Demand is still fair and port stocks of 467tmt in the system tagged for export as of Week 17 with most sitting in the Thunder Bay and St. Lawrence systems. We will be watching European and North African weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3MMT up from 8MMT in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7MMT last year and 6.2MMT year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5MMT which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures of 7.1MMT.  For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8MMT in 2016. Aside from that 6.57MMT would be the prior second place record in 2020, surpassed by 2025 production.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan are floating around their crop marketing year highs but appear to be sitting comfortable atthe values posted. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped keep the markets higher. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a fewmonths ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values have been gaining ground. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market, and these crops continue to grow with the updated Argentinian and Australian figures. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into thecoming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which in mostly strong shape as of now.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Demand remains the big item to watch on durum. Export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Western Canadian bids are flattening in the past few weeks and have not seen as much post-harvest market appreciation as spring wheat. We will be watching European winter weather conditions for the durum production regions over there. Demand is anticipated to be less than last year, but markets will watch to see if we maintain anticipated pace or move on either side of it. Statistics Canada crop production estimates are out on Thursday and will be very closely watched byglobal markets to see how the crop shapes up compared to estimates. In the November report, IGC placed durum ending stocks at 8.3 mmt up from 8.0 mmt in its prior estimate for the 2025/26 crop marketing year. This is growth from 7.0 mmt last year and 6.2 mmt the year prior. IGC has Canadian durum production at 7.5 mmt which is up from Statistics Canada’s figures. Stats Canada has the Canadian durum crop at 6.5 mmt in its Sept. 17, 2025 satellite imagery-based report. Statistics Canada will release official estimate of the 2025 crop size totals in its Dec. 4, 2025 report. For reference, the Canadian durum crop record production was 7.8 mmt in 2016. Aside from that, 6.571 would be the second-place record in 2020.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan are touching crop marketing year highs once again this past week for spring wheat. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped keep the markets higher before pulling back slightly into the weekend. Strong export demand continues to entice product in the system. Globally, the wheat balance sheet looks heavierthan it did just a few months ago but much of the increase in stocks has been anticipated for several weeks already. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values have been gaining ground. North American exporters will need to remain competitive as large Argentinian and Australian crops are available to the market. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head intothe coming months and watch for any issues in the European and U.S. winter wheat crops which are in mostly strong shape as of now.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Demand remains the big item to watch on durum. The export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Western Canadian bids were flattening in the past week and have not seen as much post harvest market appreciation as spring wheat. We will be watching European winter weather conditions for the durum production regions over there.Demand is anticipated to be less than last year, but markets will watch to see if we maintain anticipated pace or move on either side of it. Statistics Canada crop production estimates out next week will be very closely watched by global markets to see how the crop shapes up compared to estimates.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Cash markets in Saskatchewan were touching crop marketing year highs this past week for spring wheat. Stronger basis and some support from futures have helped bring the markets higher. Strong export demand has elevators working to keep the product in their system. The USDA WASDE tacked on more production to global wheat balance sheets but keep in mind the usage levels were raised as well. The overall balance sheet looks heavier than it did just a few months ago but much of the increases were somewhat anticipated by the market heading into the USDA’s report. The market wasanticipating at least slight bumps to Argentinian, Australian, Canadian, and Russian levels prior to the report's release. The ending stocks data is well illustrated in the charts below. Canadian and U.S. demand is very strong, and FOB values are gaining ground. As always, demand needs to be watched closely as there are larger crops to be moving but if export pace remains on track, it could keep ending stocks from becoming burdensome in Canada. Markets have a good understanding of the global supplies, and we will finish off theAustralian and Argentinian harvests in the coming weeks. We will be looking ahead to winter crop progress as we head into the coming months.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Demand is the big item to watch on durum. Export pace from Canada is slightly behind last year's pace. Italian buyers are cautious due to proposed pasta tariffs of 92 per cent into theUnited States, although these are expected to be postponed for the time being. They were initially threatened to take place in January. Markets will need to see import demand from Italy and North Africa as we head into winter season to keep bids stable. Saskatchewan durum bids are on average $8 CDN per tonne off the harvest lows set late September and are showing a flatline pace for the time being. There is anticipated to be ample supplies in the marketplace for the time being to meet current export demand. Quality is less than last year with 38 per cent of the durum in the #3 category and 15 per cent in #4 and #5 CWAD combined. Tunisia tendered for durum for the first time since the beginning of the year in January and came in at $323 to $326 per tonne for 100,000 tonnes.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Markets have recently bumped higher thanks to renewed Chinese demand in U.S. wheat. Trade rumours throughout the beginning of the week first sparked the markets interest and held steady once the word of the two cargos were secured. Argentinian and Australian harvest is underway, and the crops appear to be getting bigger vs smaller. Some reports that Argentina’s 22 mmt crop could be on the light side of production. Quality appears good with some light frost damage in regions but will likely not affect the overall crop. Australia’s crop in the Western region tacked on 1 mmt of tonnage in a recent report. Demand for North American wheat is holding up well as Canadian and U.S. crop exports ahead of last years levels even a few months now into the new crop marketing campaign. Demand is the big figure to be watching going forwards, although it appears to be pricing itself well as global wheat bids are stable to higher. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies have been increasing and basis on the Canadian prairies is doing the heavy lifting (see chart below) and we are still on hold for making big sales for now but are beginning to show interest in some small moves as cashflow and logistics dictate. As we head into winter, another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S winter wheat crops.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Global durum markets will begin to look at how the European and North African crops begin to shape up as we enter winter season. Export pace continues to be strong but will need to continue its trajectory. EU import pace is up 28 per cent year-over-year but below the five-year average. Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria in October helped boost export sentiment. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 39 bpa average for durum vs a 34 bpa average just one year ago. Market prices are flat recently, up off the harvest lows and touching $8.00 in some further eastern prairie regions. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Quality of the crop is a bit of an issue vs last year as there is more durum in the #3 and lower categories. #1 durum carrying a premium in the domestic market. Global import demand expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last years 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Markets leaving the contract lows a little further in the rearview mirror for Chicago and Kansas City wheat. Minneapolis wheat struggling to keep pace relative to Chicago and Kansas City. Overall, wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops. Argentinian and Australian harvest is underway, and the crops appear to be getting bigger vs smaller. Argentina’s initial crop harvest reports are that yields are better than anticipated. Australia’s crop in the Western region tacked on 1 mmt of tonnage anticipated and will keep the bulls somewhat limited as there is a bigger crop to chew through. Demand for North American wheat holding up well as Canadian and U.S. crop exports are ahead of last year's pace. Demand is the big figure to be watching going forward. Market will be looking to see if we can ramp up Russian/Black Sea shipments as there is a sizeable crop to move out of that region as well. Global wheat bids are stable to higher. We are transitioning into winter exporting season for northern hemisphere producers. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies have been increasing and basis on the Canadian prairies is doing the heavy lifting (see chart below).  We are still on hold for making big sales for now but are beginning to show interest as we see cash bids continue to improve. As we head into winter another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria in October will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with the Sask. provincial crop report pointing to a 39 BPA average for durum vs a 34 BPA average just one year ago. Market prices have picked up since harvest lows and are touching $8.00 in somefurther eastern prairie regions. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Quality of the crop is a bit of an issue vs last year as there is more durum in the #3 and lower categories. #1 durum is carrying a premium in the domestic market. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year's 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been keeping a good pace and pricing well into EU and NorthAfrica.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Wheat markets picking up ground this week and leaving the contract lows a little further in the rearview mirror for Chicago and Kansas City wheat. Minneapolis wheat has its lows a littlecloser as new ones were set last week. Minneapolis wheat in Monday’s trade action at the close is also the weakest of the contracts, with Chicago and Kansas City up double digits while Minneapolis wheat is struggling to hold onto its gains for the session. Overall, wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops. Argentinian and Australian harvest is underway, and the coming weeks will determine the crop size. The market well understands that these two nations have big crops coming and the market will look forconfirmation of these figures. Demand is the big figure to be watching. U.S. and Canadian demand appear very strong for early in the shipping season and Canadian wheat is being exported at a very rapid pace with what looks to be good export outlook for the near future as well. The market will be looking to see if we can expedite Russian/Black Sea shipments as there is a sizeable crop to move out of that region. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some fewdollar moves in FOB values each week but relative stability. We are transitioning into winter exporting season for northern hemisphere producers. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies still have been increasing and basis on the Canadian prairies is doing the heavy lifting. We are still on hold for making big sales for now but are beginning to show interest if we see cash bids continue to improve. As we head into winter another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41 bpa average for durum vs a 33 bpa average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently domestically following harvest lows. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.75+ per bushel range across Saskatchewan and have picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year’s 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop is at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing wellinto EU and North Africa.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Wheat futures markets still hover near their five-year lows and futures on the front month Minneapolis contract sit at $5.49 per bushel. The last time wheat futures were at this level was December of 2020. Kansas City and Chicago wheat finding a bit more ground recently, although contract lows remain very close in the rearview mirror. Wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops and the recent upgrades to Argentinian wheat production levels and anticipation that the Australian crop could grow vs shrink in size has wheat markets resistant to make a move higher. The market will need to make its moves higher on demand related stories. North American demand Is perceived as just fine with both U.S. demand forecasted to be strong and Canadian export pace being rapid. European and Black Sea shipping pace is behind pace, and we will need to see true demandpick up out of the region. There are a few key importers behind pace on imports, and we need to see these importers step up to the plate to keep demand moving forwards. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some few-dollar moves in FOB values each week but relative stability. We will move out of harvest pressure in northern hemisphere and transition into winter exporting season. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies sit just below $7 and we are still on hold for making big sales as we hover and trod along our five-yearlows. Strong demand for CWRS is anticipated throughout the winter, we will be watching if U.S. trade deals or MOUs with nations such as Bangladesh on wheat pull from Canadian demand. As we head into winter another item to watch will beany drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

The Canadian durum crop has grown through harvest as later estimates point towards a larger crop. Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41BPA average for durum vs a 33 BPA average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently domestically following harvest lows. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.50 to $7.75+ per bushel range across Saskatchewan andhave picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year’s 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing well into EU and North Africa.

Market Outlook - Wheat

• Wheat futures markets still hover near their five-year lows and futures on the front month Minneapolis contract sit at $5.52 per bushel. The last time wheat futures were at this level was December of 2020. Wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops and the recent upgrades to Argentinian wheat production levels and anticipation that the Australian crop could grow vs shrink in size has wheat markets resistant to make a move higher. The market will need to make its moves higher on demand related stories. North American demand is perceived as just fine with both U.S. demand forecasted to be strong and Canadian export pace being rapid. European and Black Sea shipping pace is behind pace, and we will need to see true demand pick up out of the region. There are a few key importers behind pace on imports, and we need to see these importers step up to the plate to keep demand moving forwards. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some few dollar moves in FOB values each week but relatively stable. We will move out of harvest pressure in the northern hemisphere and transition into winter exporting season. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies sit just below $7.00 and we are still on hold for making big sales as we hover and trod along our five-year lows. Strong demand for CWRS is anticipated throughout the winter, we will be watching if U.S. trade deals or MOUs with nations such as Bangladesh on wheat pull from Canadian demand. As we head into winter another item to watch will be any drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops. Russia has some severe drought in the Rostov region, and any weather stories typically are reflected quickly in the market if notable tonnage is at risk.

Market Outlook - Durum

• The Canadian durum crop has grown through harvest as later estimates point towards a larger crop. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41 bpa average for durum vs a 33 bpa average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently, and export pace has kept up to last year's pace so far. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.50 to $7.75 per bushel range across Saskatchewan and have picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand is expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year's 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. The EU crop is at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing well into EU and North Africa. We are watching this trend closely and keeping an eye on export shipments in a proactive manner to analyse the movements.