Wheat Market Outlook

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT

Wheat markets are trying to calculate the outcome from the Kansas wheat tour this week. Oklahoma’s crop tour showed just how bad the drought there did affect the crop. We will get the USDA’s first crack at production but also demand side of the trade in tomorrow’s report. Expect the market to watch this one as it is one of the more watched USDA reports of the year. Canadian crop progress is being watched as well. Spring wheat planting would be considered behind pace as of right now. A large part of northern Canadian growing region is behind pace compared to recent years, not a major market concern yet but if the forecast does not provide some warm weather, could become more of a topic for markets. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.

MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM Price opportunities to the upside of durum are limited for the short term. The North African crop looks great and North American crop story has yet to be told. The Turkish crop is expected to be larger this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Markets are watching to see how the North American spring planting season progresses and crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North African crop comes off shortly. The Canadian durum region is not the region that is behind in planting progress, and these acres are currently being planted.
If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT

Markets trying to decipher where the fine line is between where the crops will benefit from the forecasted rainfall in western Kansas and eastern Colorado this week. The markets did not do an abrupt selloff on theforecasted precipitation, which points to markets sitting with a “show me” attitude on the upcoming rains. This region is the markets focus on wheat, but we are starting to see a few more reports out of Euro region and eastern Europe. Some colder weather there has slowed spring crop planting in Russia and some dryness starting to build in Poland and into Ukraine, but markets focus is not here quite yet and will see if it does transition into a hot topic item or not. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the May USDA reportnext week. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota and the Canadian crop. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.

MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM

Price opportunities to the upside of durum appear limited for the short term. North African crop looks great, North American crop story has yet to be told. Turkish crop is expected to be a larger crop this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Markets watching to see how the North American spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North African crop comes off shortly. Canadian planting will be taking place over the next 10 to 14 days.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

Market Outlook – Wheat
Markets sit at two-year highs on the spring wheat chart in Minneapolis. The weather risk has baked itself into the current wheat market values with growing concern of how much tonnage will come from the U.S. HRW wheat region. Thisregion is the markets focus, but we are starting to see a few more reports out of the Euro region and eastern Europe. Some colder weather there has slowed spring crop planting. Also reports of some dryness starting to build in Poland and into Ukraine, but the market’s focus is not quite there yet, and it remains to be seen if this transitions into a hot topic item or not. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the May USDA report. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota and the soon-to-be planted Canadian crop. Planting is set to begin once weather turns warmer as many regions are still a little wet and cold. Expect Canadian planting to become more prominent May 1, 2026 onward this year, although a few northern wheat production regions are sittingwith some lingering snow cover yet. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.

Market Outlook – Durum

Price outlook looks flat for the time being. The North African crop looks great and the North American crop story has yet to be told. Algeria’s tender of durum wheat will provide a bit of support for producers to clean up old crop inventories ahead of planting, but no major rally is being anticipated as there is ample carry out and a good prospect for the North African / Mediterranean crop. The Turkish crop is expected to be larger this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Markets are watching to see how the North American spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow, as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North African crop comes off shortly.

Market Outlook – Wheat

Markets are hyper focused on the U.S. winter wheat crop as the only real problematic region in the world.  Russia, Ukraine and European Union crops all look as expected and are growing without major market concern. Many of these regions will be putting out a smaller crop than last year but that has been anticipated for several months now, partly in anticipation to come off of last year's large yields in many areas. We will begin to see more official reports on 2026/27 production estimates as the European Union and many of the northern hemisphere crops begin to come closer to their harvest season in June and July. The USDA will publish official 2026/27 estimates in the MayUSDA report. U.S. weather is the focus right now as some major dryness in the HRW wheat belt, lack of rain and a touch of frost in western parts of the region on the weekend. The market will also turn focus onto the spring wheat crops that are being planted in North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota here in the coming weeks. The crop was 6 per cent planted as of last week and should be over the double digit point this week. Canadian crop planting is just set to begin once the weather turns warmer. Many regions are still a little wet and cold. Expect Canadian planting to become more prominent May 1, 2026 onward this year, although a few northern wheat production regions are sitting with some lingering snow cover yet. Overall, we will be sitting in a wheat weather market from here forwards.

Market Outlook – Durum

Price outlook looks flat for the time being. Algeria's tender of durum wheat will provide a bit of support for producers to clean up old crop inventories ahead of planting, but no major rally is being anticipated as ample carryouts and a good prospect for the North African / Mediterranean crop. North African crop for durum still appears quite promising. Turkey is expected to put out a larger crop this upcoming harvest and could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Lower durum acreage anticipated in the U.S. and Canada. Markets watching to see how the spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global market export. Durum is also in a weather market and will watch how the North Africancrop comes off.

MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of the Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Ukraine’s southern region and Poland are faring on the drier side, although the market is not focusing quite on major production losses there yet, but will be monitoring. Canadian crop planting is just beginning but still two weeks away from when major progress is expected across the Prairies. Producers could be moving some grain as we play with crop marketing year highs. Producers should be cognisant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market. Outside of the U.S., weather issues for wheat look limited although that sentiment can shift anytime. 

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

Price outlook looks flat for durum for the time being. The North African crop for durum still appears quite promising and Turkey is expected to put out a larger crop this upcoming harvest, which could result in lower import demand from the region overall. Algeria is anticipated to tender for 50,000 tonnes of durum this week and durum markets will be watching closely to see how the tender comes in. Lower durum acreage is anticipated in the U.S. and Canada. Markets are watching to see how the spring planting season progresses when it comes time to plant and the crop conditions that follow as Canada is such a major producer of the crop for global export.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT

Wheat markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. Better rainfall for parts of the U.S. winter wheat production region is in the forecast for Oklahoma and Kansas. As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of the Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Ukraine’s southern region and Poland faring on the drier side. Canadian crop planting season still 3 weeks away from being planted in major fashion. Canadian wheat remains competitive for export into global markets but much of the business was done earlier and export pace relative to last year has been slipping. We are around 4 per cent ahead of last year's export pace vs 15 per cent earlier on in the crop marketing year. IGC’s latest estimates show a potential tightening of global supplies as consumption is anticipated to remain good for the upcoming season and crop yields are expected to return to normal levels after posting many record yields this past year. Producers can be moving some grain as we play with crop marketing year highs and should be cognizant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market. We will be in a full weather market for wheat beginning in about 1 months' time as Canadian planting will be underway and European and Black Sea and U.S. winter crops will be in moisture dependent stages.

MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM

Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Some better exports recently have been noted. Morocco, Tunisia and Algerian durum crops anticipated to be in good shape and higher output once it becomes harvest time could lower import demand needs thereafter if realised. Watching this market closely as they are still in the growing season and important to be watching the agroclimatic from here on out but as of right now, things look quite favorable in the North African region, and the crops will begin harvest in 1 month. Markets are focused on how Canadian crop prospects will look once time to put that crop into the ground. Canada being the world's largest exporterdoes have a major influence on the market. 

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.

Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT

Wheat markets will begin to see more reports on the Northern Hemisphere crops as their growing season begins. Expect more consistent weather updates as the crop conditions reports will begin to be released from major wheat production / exporting nations: Russia, Ukraine, European Union, Canada and the United States. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more going forward for the growing regions of Northern Hemisphere crops. As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Canadian wheat remains competitive for export into global markets but much of the business was done earlier and export pace relative to last year has been slipping. We are around 6 per cent ahead of last years export pace vs 15 per cent earlier on in the crop marketing year. Canola and other crops are taking up more export volume and capacity in recent weeks at the expense of wheat as exporters move more of the other crops through the system. IGC’s latest estimates show a potential tightening of global supplies as consumption is anticipated to remain good for the upcoming season and crop yields are expected to return to normal levels after posting many record yields this past year. Producers could be moving some grain at cropmarketing year highs with the recent uptick in values and should be cognisant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market.

MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM

Price outlook overall for durum appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Morocco, Tunisia and Algerian durum crops are anticipated to be in good shape with higher output once it becomes harvest time could lower import demand needs thereafter if realised. Watching this market closely as they are still in the growing season and important to be watching the agroclimatic from here on out but as of right now, things look quite favorable in the North African region. Markets are focused on how Canadian crop prospects will look once time to put that crop into the ground. Canada being the worlds largest exporter and always does have a major influence on the market. Dryness in southern production regions of Saskatchewan will be the region markets are watching as we enter later April and into May.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEATDomestic bids to Saskatchewan producers pulled back slightly from last week's peaks. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. Wheat markets have an interesting few weeks ahead of them as the Gulf region conflict persists and we will begin to see more reports on the Northern Hemisphere crops as their growing season begins. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. Northern Hemisphere crops are believed to have escaped some of the worst of the winterkill with good reports out of Germany and France. U.S. winterkill is not seen as massive, but now the precipitation and dryness scenario will be watched. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and exports are still tracking on pace for a record season although the pace is beginning to slip as larger exports were done early. We are anticipating some weather-related volatility as the North American growing season is set to begin shortly. IGC’s latest estimates show a potential tightening of global supplies as consumption is anticipated to remain good for the upcoming season and crop yields are expected to return to normal levels after posting many record yields this past year.

MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM

Price outlook overall for durum appears relatively flat as it has been for much ofthe marketing year for western Canadian producers. Morocco, Tunisia and Algerian durum crops are anticipated to be in good shape, and once harvest time comes, higher output could lower import demand needs thereafter if realised. We are watching this market closely as they are still in the growing season and it is important to be watching the agroclimate from here on out. As of right now, things look favourable in the North African region. Markets are focused on how Canadian crop prospects will look once it is time to put that crop into the ground. Canada being the world's largest exporter always does have a major influence on the market in general.

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT

Futures take a setback on Monday morning after having had a strong showing this past week. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. This past trading week, Canadian wheat domestic price targets have been triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September and $8 became obtainable in a few scenarios. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on forwards for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. Northern hemisphere crops are believed to have escaped some of the worst of the winterkill with good reports out of Germany and France with some heavier numbers being reported from Ukraine. U.S. winterkill is not massive but now the precipitation and dryness scenario will be watched. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and exports still tracking on pace for a record season.

MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM

Tunisia tendered for a 50,000-tonne allotment of durum this past week and has brought some fresh demand into the marketplace. Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, allreports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received quite good winter rainfall and the crop prospect sitting quite positive for now in many key production areas. Market will also turn attention to Canadianprairie agroclimatic closer to spring.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates. Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/

MARKET OUTLOOK - WHEAT

Wheat futures had a strong showing this past week and have translated into some higher value targets being picked up for wheat across the Prairies. Iranian conflict shaking up markets all around including energies and agriculture. Risk premium had been put into ag markets on the conflict and will trade accordingly. The region is a large net importer of wheat, and markets might look to see if there will be any potential stockpiling or shifting of demand into the region. Canadian wheat domestic price targets are being triggered at levels not seen yet since the crop was initially available to the market in September. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more from here on for the growing regions of northern hemisphere crops. The crops in these regions are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state-by-state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market but will need to be cognizant to remain to remain competitive going forwards.

MARKET OUTLOOK - DURUM

Price outlook overall for durum appears relatively flat as it has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African, Mediterranean and European crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favourable conditions for the cropping regions with reports of very few issues in these areas so far. North African regions have received good winter rainfall, and the crop prospect is positive for now in many key production areas. The market will also turn attention to Canadian prairie agroclimatic closer to spring.

If readers are interested in a comprehensive listing of 2026 major report release dates.Follow the link attached. https://exceedgrainmarketing.com/2026-global-major-report-release-calendar/