The EU, Russia and Ukraine need to see record export demand for Feb. through June to meet USDA projections, and there seems to be little evidence at the moment that demand will come close to those numbers.

At the same time, traders are concerned about the developments in the Middle East and about geopolitical disputes in general. This environment will keep markets steady, but as the cheapest food grain, it could support wheat rather than corn. However, the Russian government’s action last week to drop the ‘recommended’ export floor price shows they are ready to continue fighting for markets.

Mercantile recommends producers be fully sold on durum and look for opportunities in spring wheat.