According to Mercantile, many of the origins saw their stocks lowered, so Mercantile says these are bullish statistics. Ukrainian domestic supplies are the lowest since 2013, as production declines and stocks normalize.

According to Mercantile, Funds are nervous and are reversing positions and consumers are largely uncovered and are getting anxious. On the other hand, Mercantile says Russia seems to have the capacity to keep one million mt/week flowing for another 14 months, and current prices are high relative to stocks. Assuming normal yields for now, farmer margins are swinging back into the black.