Wheat Market Outlook

According to Mercantile, harvest pressure in Europe will lead cash prices, but weather should keep North American prices from falling much. Mercantile thinks the funds will continue covering their shorts. Mercantile would leave wheat sales alone for now.

According to Mercantile, weaker crops in Europe are being met with strong harvest results in the U.S. There was good demand last week, but all the tenders were fulfilled with Black Sea wheat. Mercantile says there is lots of uncertainty with Biden stepping down and escalations in the Middle East to name only few. Generally, markets don’t like uncertainty so, Mercantile’ s logic says markets should go higher, however, Mercantile is also at a time of harvest pressure. Mercantile would hold sales for now and see how events transpire.

According to Mercantile, the bulls needed production downgrades in Europe to offset stronger production in the U.S. Mercantile says they didn’t get it from the USDA, so they are back to speculating over harvest results. Mercantile says another concern is thin export demand for new crop wheat as importers continue to buy hand-to-mouth. The wheat market will continue to experience harvest pressure. Mercantile would not sell new crop for now.

According to Mercantile, activity in Russia indicates that the shortfall in production was not huge and Russian traders are eager to make up for the business they missed because of the floor price. Additionally, they need to find markets outside of Iraq, Pakistan, and Turkey which usually provide strong early demand. Meanwhile, smaller crops in France mean that farmers are reluctant to sell. Harvest pressure for wheat is building, while buyers have little-to-no cover. Mercantile thinks the sellers will be more aggressive, so expect futures will be weaker. However, they would hold cash sales for now as long as producers are ok for space and cash flow.

Mercantile predicts that markets will remain difficult to forecast. Farmers are under sold and consumers are under-bought. There was a nice flush of tender business last week and exporters will be hopeful of more to come. It is not evident where the next wave of buying will come from. What’s is for sure is again there will be prices driven by Europe in the early part with better North American levels December forwards. The soft wheat discounts will be lower. Mercantile sees no reason to chase sales at this time.

Mercantile expects the markets to remain weak due to dumping of remaining old crop product and new crop harvest pressure from Europe. This will put pressure on futures, but Mercantile does not expect to lower prices for forward cash. Presently, Mercantile does not expect too many cash buyers to come to the market, but they note that new crop coverage is low.

Soft wheat will stay bearish. However, Mercantile would not sell any cash hard wheat until later.

Mercantile says that there was nothing in the WASDE report to stir the markets. Wheat traders are looking at the sluggish demand, and the abundance of old crop wheat that needs a home before harvest starts. Looking further out, there are several weather concerns and wheat supply will be tighter this year once all work through the glut of grain that is currently on the market.

According to Mercantile, the recent tenders demonstrated both the lack of cover of the major importers, but also the abundance of available old crop wheat. Weather is still a major issue in some regions (Russia and France) while politics are causing additional complications, says Mercantile. The USDA report is out on Wednesday.

According to Mercantile, wheat prices seasonally decline in June as harvest begins in the Northern Hemisphere. However, weather concerns, especially in Russia where the drought is expected to deepen, will challenge the seasonal weakens of the wheat market.

It is a short week, so Mercantile doesn’t see much change in the markets. The futures will be lightly traded and a little weaker by the and of the week, but thin according to Mercantile. Growers will sell some old crop and leave the new crop alone while weather is so variable. The funds will remain undecided. Mercantile would continue to hold new crop sales for the time being. Mercantile does not see a reason to sell any new crop while weather remains unpredictable.