Wheat Market Outlook

Stats Canada is showing that Canada exported 808.1k mt of durum during January 2023. This is a record monthly amount and especially strong for January when Canadian durum exports are usually at their seasonal low. Wheat was lower following the USDA report. The Russian delegation will meet with the UN to discuss their side of the Grain Corridor export deal on March 13th. Mercantile assumes the corridor is going to be left open. If left open, it is neutral to bearish. If it’s not, it is bullish. The exchange in local currencies is high, so demand will remain slow. Old crop carryovers will be at their minimum, putting pressure on any inverse according to Mercantile.

According to Mercantile, there seems to be plenty of wheat available to meet buyer’s needs. The Russian prices have fallen to a year low and yet there appears to be more for sale from Black Sea origins. All tenders that were called for were met successfully without the need for North American supplies. Mercantile expects the next WASDE report to increase the USA carryover.

According to Mercantile, there is little in the mix to support a rally in old crop wheat prices. The funds sold many of their long positions, and there is little to suggest them buying in. Mercantile said, there could be a rally in spring wheat as the chart looks oversold. If it does, any remaining old crop should be sold. The strong dollar is making purchases of North American grain difficult in local currencies. Mercantile hopes growers took their advice and sold old crop.

Wheat Market Outlook - February 21, 2023

Wheat Market Outlook - February 13, 2023

Wheat Market Outlook - February 6, 2023

Wheat Market Outlook - January 30, 2023

Wheat Market Outlook - January 23, 2023

Wheat Market Outlook - January 16, 2023

Wheat Market Outlook - January 9, 2023