Market Outlook – What to Watch with Wheat  

• Markets have a much better understanding of total global supplies in major regions vs just one month ago. Canadian and U.S. wheat harvest will be off shortly, EU and Russian crop sizes well understood as well. After the North American crop is off there will be a few key southern hemisphere players. Australian crop prospects have improved significantly since spring although their major harvest is still a few months away. The Argentinian crop is looking excellent as well. The market will look for demand stories to give traders confidence that the market is finding a home for the crop that is being made available.  We have seen west coast North American FOB bids stay relatively steady recently while European / Black Sea quotes pull back slightly as they try to generate demand for their freshly harvested crop. 

Market Outlook - Durum

Export demand is anticipated to be lower from Canada due to the better European crop and lack of major production issues in the North African crop. Crop size from Statistics Canada is placed at 6.08 mmt. The crop has seen domestic bids fall week over week. Larger European Union crop availability will keep a lid on market appreciation and Canadian durum values will need to be competitive to gain sales throughout the crop marketing season.