Oil sanctions have given rise to dark shipping, reshaping global energy flows and producing far-reaching economic consequences.

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In recent years, oil export sanctions have become a central tool of U.S. foreign policy, targeting major producers including Russia, Iran, and, until very recently Venezuela. These sanctions were designed to limit oil revenues, apply economic pressure, and create geopolitical leverage. But their real-world effects have proven more complex than many anticipated.

A growing “shadow fleet” of oil tankers now operates alongside the conventional global shipping system. These vessels, often older and operating with opaque ownership and shifting registrations, transport sanctioned oil through networks designed to evade restrictions. Despite extensive sanctions, large volumes of this oil continue to reach global markets. 

In this episode, Penn economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde examines how oil sanctions have contributed to the rise of dark shipping, and have become a lever in global great power competition. Drawing on new research funded by the Kleinman Center, he explains how shadow oil flows reshape global markets, influence prices and industrial activity, and generate unintended outcomes.

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde is a professor of economics and Director of the Penn Initiative for the Study of Markets at the University of Pennsylvania.

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