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After five weeks of fighting, the United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, halting strikes and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But while the immediate crisis may be paused, the bigger questions are far from resolved.

In this episode, host Aviva Klompas speaks with journalist Eli Lake about what this moment represents. Has the war ended and if so, who came out ahead? 

They examine the damage inflicted on Iran’s military infrastructure and leadership, and whether those losses meaningfully change its long-term capabilities. Iran’s leadership is framing the ceasefire as a victory, with reports it may collect substantial fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially offsetting sanctions.

Aviva and Eli also step back to assess whether the war was necessary, and how to interpret President Trump’s unconventional and often provocative communication style. They discuss how to distinguish between rhetoric and policy, and what Trump’s approach reveals about how this war is being conducted and understood.

Speaker Bio

Eli Lake is a journalist and geopolitical analyst, currently a contributing editor and columnist at The Free Press and host of the excellent Breaking History podcast. He was previously a columnist for Bloomberg, The Daily Beast, and Newsweek, where he covered national security, foreign policy, and global affairs. Known for his sharp analysis and independent voice, Eli brings a nuanced and thought-provoking perspective to some of the most pressing issues in international politics.