President-elect Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on all imported goods from Canada and Mexico — including crude oil — has raised concern among U.S. refiners, many of which depend heavily on those imports and would face serious challenges in replacing them. The question is, given that dependence and the incoming administration’s pledge to reduce energy costs, will refiners — and oil producers in Canada and Mexico — succeed in their efforts to exempt crude oil from the tariff plan? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the degree to which U.S. refineries incorporate Canada- and Mexico-sourced oil in their crude slates, the potentially devastating impacts of a tariff on Canadian crude in particular, and the odds for and against U.S. tariffs on oil imports from its neighbors.