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The full blog post
Two data points are not a trend. Two-data-point comparisons can be mathematically correct but practically meaningless.
This is true in workplaces and news articles like this one.
Multiple two-data-point comparisons (comparing last month to the previous month AND comparing it to the year before) don't paint the full picture the way a simple run chart would.
If a hospital's margin is "23% higher" than the year before, is that a difference between 1% and 1.23% or the difference between 10% and 12.3%?
Give me more data points. Better yet, create a chart that shows trends (or the lack thereof) over time. Otherwise, we're just celebrating (or bemoaning) every little up and now.
23% sounds like a big change. But that doesn't mean it's statistically meaningful. Was it down 27% the previous month? Possibly. Some metrics simply fluctuate around a stable average.
On NPR recently, the hourly news update covered economic indicators, including the truth and data points that say:
So, gas prices are both going UP and DOWN. It depends on which data point you use as a starting comparison -- and what point you might be trying to prove. What are those two facts "indicators" of?? What's the longer term trend??
4.1
1515 ratings
The full blog post
Two data points are not a trend. Two-data-point comparisons can be mathematically correct but practically meaningless.
This is true in workplaces and news articles like this one.
Multiple two-data-point comparisons (comparing last month to the previous month AND comparing it to the year before) don't paint the full picture the way a simple run chart would.
If a hospital's margin is "23% higher" than the year before, is that a difference between 1% and 1.23% or the difference between 10% and 12.3%?
Give me more data points. Better yet, create a chart that shows trends (or the lack thereof) over time. Otherwise, we're just celebrating (or bemoaning) every little up and now.
23% sounds like a big change. But that doesn't mean it's statistically meaningful. Was it down 27% the previous month? Possibly. Some metrics simply fluctuate around a stable average.
On NPR recently, the hourly news update covered economic indicators, including the truth and data points that say:
So, gas prices are both going UP and DOWN. It depends on which data point you use as a starting comparison -- and what point you might be trying to prove. What are those two facts "indicators" of?? What's the longer term trend??
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