Intro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets.

Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule continue their conversation on 2024 Republican presidential primary. Ben and Pratik discuss whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around an alternative. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the two segments 1:12: Manifold and the importance of in-person forecasting events 6:34: Rule3O3 intro 8:26: Political prediction market efficiency 10:29: Epistemic humility in prediction markets 13:26: Technical analysis 16:20: Fun in prediction markets 18:43: Ben Freeman on whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around DeSantis 20:43: High-profile Republican endorsements 23:19: Attacks on Trump 27:39: Trump's financial problems 29:41: Will Republicans coalesce around an alternative 33:41: DeSantis's strengths and weaknesses 39:54: Ben's picks on PredictIt 41:57: Pence lottos