I can think of no more romantic way for you to spend a quiet moment alone with your partner on this Valentine's Day than drawing a warm bath, throwing in some scented oils, and reading aloud the latest Politics, Politics, Politics post.

"Great point, Justin," you can say to each other as you make longing eye contact and renew your commitment to one another.

But it is in that spirit of passion that I tell you: somebody's gonna get f***ed — either the House or the Senate.

This is a Republican problem, and we are in strange days. Normally, the People's House, which has a far higher headcount, operates with majorities of 10, 15, 20, maybe even 30 seats, at least in a bygone, un-gerrymandered era. In those situations, you could craft policy where some members of your own coalition wouldn't have to vote for it.

The Republicans don’t have that luxury.

Right now, the House majority is two.

Two people.

And reinforcements aren’t coming until April with the Florida special elections. We have no idea when the New York special election to replace Elise Stefanik will happen. The House wants to pass one big, beautiful bill with all of Donald Trump's agenda in it. The Senate doesn't want that. They would rather pass two bills. Over the last few days, as Lindsey Graham moved a budget bill out of the Senate, the message has been clear: if the House can't act, the Senate will.

Meanwhile, the House, constantly scrapping for power because of its easily divided nature, is saying, "No, we're sending you one bill. You figure it out." And here’s the inside sauce on it: the reason the House wants one bill, many House Republicans don't like massive bills crammed with everything at once. They prefer voting on things individually. But Republicans can't afford to do that right now. They need members to vote against what they’ve pledged to vote for, and the only way they believe they can achieve that is by bundling multiple things together including some things that fussy members can’t not vote for.

For example? Budget hawks who won’t raise the debt by one penny… are you not going to vote for border funding? Same for Border Warriors who want every illegal migrant out tomorrow along with their whole family… are you going to be an all-or-nothing puritan and not green light the tax cuts?

The Senate sending two bills to the House is a problem for Republicans. The first bill, likely the border package, would pass easily. But when the second bill—probably tax cuts—comes around, budget hawks will balk. And if the House, Senate, and White House are all in Republican hands but fail to pass Trump's legislative agenda, that would be a disaster.

The Senate's noise has some in the White House thinking the House is a lost cause. Yesterday, the House finally released a budget, and sources inside the chamber are unhappy. “The numbers are bad, campaign promises are broken, and member priorities are ignored,” As one source put it. "We need a speaker with big balls. In fact, I’d take (Elon’s) Big Balls over Mike Johnson’s any day."

Which brings us to Speaker Johnson, the Hudsucker Proxy speaker.

If you’ve never seen that movie, Tim Robbins plays a mailroom worker who gets unexpectedly elevated to CEO by a scheming board looking for a patsy. The movie ends with Robbins proving himself to be an exceptional CEO. Johnson would love for that to be his story. But the speakership in this situation is an impossible job. He can only afford to lose two votes, and one of them is already Thomas Massie. He got this job because, after Kevin McCarthy was ousted, every other candidate had at least four enemies. Johnson? He was just well-liked enough to slip through. Now, he's at the center of the storm.

The House budget committee has angered members, and things are bleak. This doesn't mean the end, but it does mean they might have to split into two bills. If that happens, tax cuts might take a long time—or not happen at all. That’s a problem because tax cuts are a kitchen table issue. If Trump’s cuts aren’t in place by next year, it would be a massive failure. The number one reason people voted for Trump was to get inflation under control. If taxes go up, it’s a disaster.

And the issue here is that there is no legislative North Star. Paul Ryan isn’t walking through that door. He was a legislative guy, a wonk. Right now, there’s no one like that in the House. And there’s certainly no one like that in the White House.

And that’s where we land now. The big question? Considering all the noise that has been made by DOGE, does the idea of those savings factor into any of these budget talks?

If not, then get ready for a bumpy ride with the first test being the expiration of government funding on March 14th.

Chapters:

- 00:00:00 - Introduction and Overview

- 00:00:50 - Valentine's Day Special Opening

- 00:01:19 - Discussion on House vs. Senate Republican Strategies

- 00:02:38 - The House's Push for a Single Comprehensive Bill

- 00:04:38 - Challenges in Passing Trump's Legislative Agenda

- 00:07:27 - Interview with Matt Laszlo on Congressional Dynamics

- 00:10:12 - Democrats' Internal Struggles and Strategy

- 00:20:22 - Potential Government Shutdown and Democratic Response

- 00:32:00 - Republicans' Legislative Challenges and Budget Issues

- 00:39:00 - Lobbying Efforts to Influence Trump's Immigration Policies

- 01:00:00 - Interview with Dave Leventhal on Lobbying and Immigration

- 01:24:00 - Closing Remarks and Additional News Updates

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