We’ve officially entered the phase of the shutdown where things stop being polite and start getting real. Missed paychecks are happening this week for federal employees, and while everyone knows they’ll eventually get paid, it doesn’t matter. Missing a paycheck now still hurts. It gets gritty fast. Both parties are struggling to manage this moment, and honestly, neither of them is very good at what they’re trying to do.

On the Democratic side, they’re bad at being the ones who stop the machine for a righteous cause. You can tell because half of them aren’t even taking credit for the cause they’re supposedly fighting for. The public explanation is that this shutdown is about Obamacare subsidies and funding for regional hospitals, but those subsidies don’t expire until the end of the year. That means this fight is more about symbolism than urgency. The Democrats are also trying to repeal parts of what Trump calls the “one big beautiful bill,” though they won’t say that directly. Instead, they’re focused on a message that doesn’t connect cleanly — and that’s showing.

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Then there’s the filibuster angle. Democrats keep saying Republicans can end the shutdown by devolving the filibuster and voting the government open again. That’s dangerous thinking. Republicans don’t want to touch the filibuster because doing so would force them to start passing a lot more legislation — the kind Democrats could easily overturn later. I get the strategy. Democrats want the filibuster gone so Republicans have to own the bills they pass. Then they can campaign against them. But that’s a high-stakes game to play in the middle of a shutdown.

Meanwhile, the Republicans aren’t handling this much better. They’re out of practice at playing defense on a shutdown. Their usual posture is that government is bloated anyway, so maybe turning it off isn’t the worst thing in the world. That might play well in theory, but when paychecks stop going out, people stop laughing. The White House hasn’t done much to apply pressure either. No press events. No imagery. No clear sense that anything’s different. To the average voter, it just feels like business as usual — and that’s not how you win a messaging battle.

So where does that leave us? Probably in this standoff for a while. I’d bet on this dragging past Halloween, maybe into mid-November. The continuing resolution being floated now would keep funding through November 15, which would only buy about a month before we’re right back here again. The pattern is familiar. You stop one shutdown, swear never to do it again, and then do it again anyway.

The most realistic off-ramp is a handful of Democratic senators breaking ranks and agreeing to a handshake deal — reopen the government now, vote on the Obamacare subsidies later. But so far, that hasn’t happened. Instead, we have Chuck Schumer saying every day of this shutdown is “better for Democrats.” That’s the kind of sound bite that will haunt you when paychecks are still missing and airports start slowing down.

I thought this would be over already. I really did. A week ago, I said Democrats should have sold high — wrapped it up while they still had good poll numbers and claimed a moral victory. But they didn’t. They thought they had more to gain by holding the line. Maybe they’re right. Maybe they’re wrong. Either way, we’re all about to find out together.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:12 - Shutdown

00:10:35 - Interview with Kirk Bado

00:37:30 - Update

00:37:59 - Maine

00:44:40 - Ukraine

00:48:01 - Argentina

00:51:58 - Interview with Kirk Bado, con’t

01:16:41 - Wrap-up

A conversation with friend of the show Will Harris got my wheels turning. He pointed out something he was seeing in the UK press — Trump getting credit for what many are calling Biden’s Gaza peace deal. And yeah, I had missed that particular discourse, but it didn’t take long to see that the split wasn’t just overseas. It’s right here too. Some are arguing that the framework for this agreement was already in place under Biden, but now it’s Trump stepping in and sealing the deal. That’s not an unusual pattern in politics — one team builds, another finishes — but the way the Biden side is reacting is worth exploring.

Let’s be honest: getting a Middle East peace deal done is about the hardest thing you can try to accomplish in diplomacy. Saying you have a plan is one thing — implementing it in a region with as much distrust and complexity as the Middle East is a whole different story. It’s like drafting a diet and fitness routine and assuming the results will match the spreadsheet. Biden’s people floated frameworks, sure, but they couldn’t make the deal happen. I suspect that’s because they thought it would require applying pressure on Israel to end the war — and they didn’t want to be seen doing that. They wanted the outcome without owning the action.

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Then there’s the idea that Biden deserved the credit even if Trump got the win. And this is where I find it all a little rich. Because I remember 2020. The Trump administration rolled out Operation Warp Speed — arguably one of the biggest policy successes of his term — and when Biden took over, they went out of their way to discredit everything Trump did. The narrative was that Biden had to rebuild the whole vaccination effort from scratch, even when it would’ve been politically smart to share credit or even use it to jab Trump from the left on vaccines as that issue started to shift.

Now the roles are reversed. The Biden team worked on the peace framework and now wants credit — even though the Trump administration finished the job. It’s not that I think they deserve nothing. There’s a case to be made that this deal, if it holds, spans both administrations. That the effort to find a resolution to an ugly, years-long war included meaningful contributions from both. But if you live by the sword of discrediting your predecessor at every turn, don’t be shocked when you die by it too.

I don’t think we’re about to see the Trump team break out the thank-you cards — and if a Nobel Peace Prize comes out of this, it’s going to have Trump’s name on it. Still, if they were smart, they’d acknowledge — maybe off the record — that having a working framework didn’t hurt. But the real lesson here is that a plan is just that — a plan. The deal is what matters. And once again, it turns out being the closer counts more than drawing up the play.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro

03:13 - Gaza Peace Deal

11:47 - Update

12:04 - NYC Polling

13:58 - Letitia James

18:18 - Texas

21:14 - Interview with Kenneth Vogel

54:28- Wrap-up

Ceasefire in Gaza

President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, marking the beginning of a multi-phase peace process. The first phase slated to begin Monday includes the release of 20 hostages, a halt to active fighting, and Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza. Hamas is expected to return the remains of deceased hostages as part of the deal.

The agreement, brokered with the help of Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, represents a shift in regional diplomacy. Qatar’s role is especially significant, given its previous support for Hamas. Observers suggest that recent Israeli strikes in Doha (looking more and more like an approved strike by Qatar) indicate a broader effort to isolate Hamas.

Key details of the peace plan, which aligns with a Trump proposal presented at the UN, include:

1. Gaza will be a deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors.

2. Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough.

3. If both sides agree to this proposal, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed upon line to prepare for a hostage release. During this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal.

4. Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned.

5. Once all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners plus 1,700 Gazans who were detained after 7 October 2023, including all women and children detained in that context. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans.

6. Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries.

7. Upon acceptance of this agreement, full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip. At a minimum, aid quantities will be consistent with what was included in the 19 January 2025 agreement regarding humanitarian aid, including rehabilitation of infrastructure (water, electricity, sewage), rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries, and entry of necessary equipment to remove rubble and open roads.

8. Entry of distribution and aid in the Gaza Strip will proceed without interference from the two parties through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red Crescent, in addition to other international institutions not associated in any manner with either party. Opening the Rafah crossing in both directions will be subject to the same mechanism implemented under 19 January 2025 agreement.

9. Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of state to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair. This body will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform programme, as outlined in various proposals, including President Trump’s peace plan in 2020 and the Saudi-French proposal, and can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza. This body will call on best international standards to create modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to attracting investment.

10. A Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energize Gaza will be created by convening a panel of experts who have helped birth some of the thriving modern miracle cities in the Middle East. Many thoughtful investment proposals and exciting development ideas have been crafted by well-meaning international groups, and will be considered to synthesize the security and governance frameworks to attract and facilitate these investments that will create jobs, opportunity, and hope for future Gaza.

11. A special economic zone will be established with preferred tariff and access rates to be negotiated with participating countries.

12. No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return. We will encourage people to stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza.

13. Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt. There will be a process of demilitarisation of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning, and supported by an internationally funded buy back and reintegration programme all verified by the independent monitors. New Gaza will be fully committed to building a prosperous economy and to peaceful coexistence with their neighbours.

14. A guarantee will be provided by regional partners to ensure that Hamas, and the factions, comply with their obligations and that New Gaza poses no threat to its neighbors or its people.

15. The United States will work with Arab and international partners to develop a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) to immediately deploy in Gaza. The ISF will train and provide support to vetted Palestinian police forces in Gaza, and will consult with Jordan and Egypt who have extensive experience in this field. This force will be the long-term internal security solution. The ISF will work with Israel and Egypt to help secure border areas, along with newly trained Palestinian police forces. It is critical to prevent munitions from entering Gaza and to facilitate the rapid and secure flow of goods to rebuild and revitalize Gaza. A deconfliction mechanism will be agreed upon by the parties.

16. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. As the ISF establishes control and stability, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be agreed upon between the IDF, ISF, the guarantors, and the United States, with the objective of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to Israel, Egypt, or its citizens. Practically, the IDF will progressively hand over the Gaza territory it occupies to the ISF according to an agreement they will make with the transitional authority until they are withdrawn completely from Gaza, save for a security perimeter presence that will remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat.

17. In the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above, including the scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free areas handed over from the IDF to the ISF.

18. An interfaith dialogue process will be established based on the values of tolerance and peaceful co-existence to try and change mindsets and narratives of Palestinians and Israelis by emphasizing the benefits that can be derived from peace.

19. While Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people.

20. The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence.

—

The long-term viability of the deal remains uncertain, but initial signs suggest a realignment of regional priorities.

This deal has Trump’s fingerprints all over it.

As I am typing this I am speaking with friend of the program Wil Harris who is telling me that the UK press is presenting this as Biden’s plan Trump is taking credit for. That’s a bit rich, in my opinion.

To paraphrase The Social Network:

If Biden was the inventor of the Gaza Peace Plan, he would have implemented the Gaza Peace Plan.

Katie Porter’s Viral Meltdown Raises Political Stakes

California gubernatorial candidate Katie Porter is under fire following a viral interview where she appeared combative with a reporter. The incident was compounded by resurfaced footage of Porter harshly reprimanding a staffer during the COVID-19 lockdown.

Porter’s opponents, including Antonio Villaraigosa and Betty Yee, have seized on the moment to question her temperament and fitness for office. Strategists warn that although her base remains strong, such optics could threaten her standing as the Democratic frontrunner in a crowded 2026 race.

Despite the controversy, many believe Porter’s progressive bona fides will carry her through. The Democratic primary electorate, historically more tolerant of combative behavior if aligned with ideological purity, may ultimately overlook the episode.

James Comey Arraigned in Politically Charged Case

Former FBI Director James Comey pleaded not guilty this week to charges of lying to Congress and obstruction, charges filed by the Department of Justice under Trump’s newly appointed U.S. Attorney, Lindsey Halligan. Comey’s legal team is expected to challenge the basis of the prosecution, citing political retaliation.

Legal experts widely anticipate the case may be dismissed before trial, but the optics alone are significant. The indictment illustrates the fraught landscape of prosecutorial partisanship in the post-Trump era, where legal actions against political adversaries risk becoming a norm rather than an exception.

Chapters and Time Codes

* Introduction & Return to Austin — 00:00:41

* Gaza Ceasefire Overview — 00:05:10

* Trump’s Role and Regional Dynamics — 00:08:18

* Implications for Hamas and Israel — 00:14:11

* Katie Porter Controversy — 00:20:31

* Political Impact of Porter’s Behavior — 00:24:06

* James Comey Indictment — 00:29:11

* Wrap-up & Preview of Ken Vogel Interview — 00:32:23

I want to start today by explaining why my audio sounds like garbage. I don’t have my usual mic — or my webcam, or laptop, or clothes — because everything was stolen out of our rental car while we were eating at Burma Superstar in Oakland. I lived in this city for nearly a decade and never once got ‘bipped.’ This time, someone smashed the window, glass flying right over the car seat where my baby had just been sitting, and took every bag they could find. My wife’s stuff, my stuff — all gone. They even took the bag of stuffed animals. Apparently, those don’t fence for much.

Now, I don’t bring this up for pity. I know full well that parking a rental car in Oakland is like drawing a target on your back. But that’s exactly what bothers me — this idea that we deserve it. That the cost of living in a beautiful, culturally rich city like Oakland is rampant, normalized crime. And it’s not just Oakland. I don’t buy that this is the price of admission for living in cities like Chicago or New York either. These are cities with strong tax bases, vibrant economies, and in some cases — like here in San Francisco — literal gold rushes. I’m speaking to you now from the Bay Park, right next to the Chase Center, where the Warriors play. OpenAI’s offices are here. And yet one garage over, you’re stepping through fentanyl, addicts, and filth.

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What really got me was the reaction. When I told friends what happened, no one was surprised — just a shrug and “yeah, rental car.” No outrage. No concern. This isn’t just about me getting my stuff stolen. It’s about the fact that this kind of thing is treated as an unavoidable fact of life. And I get it — people here have empathy. But that empathy’s being weaponized. Because this isn’t just random desperation. If it were, they’d have taken the diaper bag. No, I think what we’re dealing with is organized crime. And no one seems interested in doing anything about it.

There’s no political will. I’m not calling for a police state, but I am saying that the city should want to stop this. It’s not just bad for tourists — it’s not good for the locals either. The criminals aren’t the ones getting rich. The neighborhoods that need better-paying jobs aren’t helped by a tourism industry that doesn’t exist because no one wants to visit a city where this is just what happens. I don’t think it’s generous to ignore that — to write this all off as unavoidable.

The kicker? When I called 911, they told me to go to a website. That was it. And look, I’ll be fine. My car rental’s covered by Amex we’re going to get home okay. But what does that say about the city — when a middle-class family gets robbed, and no one even pretends to care? There’s something broken here, and it’s not just the window.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro and Crime Thoughts

08:12 - Interview with Bill Scher

45:42 - Wrap-up

The Shutdown Senate Vote

The shutdown rolls on, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune has already said it is unlikely the Senate will vote this weekend. That means the government shutdown will extend into next week unless something changes Friday morning. He criticized Democrats for demanding an extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies in the stopgap bill and insisted negotiations must begin only once the government reopens. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is predicting GOP unity will falter as the shutdown drags on, but I’m not convinced.

From where I sit, the numbers tell the story. Three Democrats voted with Republicans last time. Rand Paul opposes continuing resolutions, so Republicans will need eight Democrats to reach 60 votes because J.D. Vance is the tie breaker. Every time the Senate votes, I’m watching to see if more than three Democrats side with Republicans — that’s the real signal of where this is going.

I don’t believe Democrats are built for shutdowns. They’re posturing as if they’re ready to see this through, but the longer it goes the more likely rank and file members will embarrass Chuck Schumer into ending it. The real pain — furloughs, firings, and cuts to the federal workforce — is only going to show up if this lasts into next week. That’s when the Russ Vought part of the story kicks in, and that’s when this gets serious.

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Abigail Spanberger in Virginia

Former Representative Abigail Spanberger is leading Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl Sears by 10 points in the governor’s race, 52 to 42, according to a new Emerson College and Hill survey conducted September 28 and 29. Early voting is already underway with more than 146,000 ballots cast. Among those voters, Spanberger leads 60 to 38 and still holds a 50 to 43 edge among those yet to vote.

Her gains have come from independents, men, and younger voters. Independents back her by 19 points, men are evenly split, and voters under 50 favor her by 27 points. History suggests the party that is not in the White House usually wins the Virginia governor’s race. Based on that, I’d bet Spanberger, even though this isn’t exactly an electric matchup.

The only real advantage Sears has is the men’s and women’s sports issue — a culture war topic, not a kitchen table one. I don’t think that will be enough, especially in Northern Virginia, which is heavily government dependent and angry at the president. Add on Sears not being a great candidate and Spanberger looks far stronger heading into November.

Bailouts are Back

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Trump administration will announce substantial support for U.S. farmers next week, likely funded by tariff revenue. Soybean growers have been hit hard as China has halted U.S. purchases during their trade war. Bessent accused Beijing of using farmers as hostages in negotiations but pledged aid, noting their loyalty to Trump.

He discussed the plan with the president and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, but details and costs remain unclear. Argentina’s discounted soybean sales to China have undercut U.S. farmers and stoked tension. Bailouts are back, and this is classic Trump — he’s never been a fiscal hawk and has no problem using the federal government’s pocketbook to shape the world as he sees fit.

That’s where things stand. Farmers are hurting, the administration is signaling payouts, and we’ll see next week how big the support really is.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro and Synagogue Shooting

00:03:47 - Interview with Gloria Young

00:34:28 - Update

00:34:44 - Shutdown

00:38:08 - Abigail Spanberger

00:40:18 - Farmers

00:41:49 - Interview with Gloria Young (con’t)

01:03:18 - Wrap-up

As I record this episode, we are on the edge — maybe already over it, by the time you read this — of a government shutdown. And I want to give you a bit of the behind-the-scenes intel I picked up that helps explain how we got here. According to one of my sources on the Hill (a Republican, for the record), the read is that Chuck Schumer is locked in. He’s in a “dark place,” unwilling to budge, and if anything’s going to change, it’ll come from other Democrats. That’s been the drumbeat here: Schumer can’t blink. If he does, he opens himself up to a leadership challenge. And that’s the one thing a Senate leader absolutely cannot do.

The Democrats are trying to pitch the shutdown as a way to stand up for healthcare — that’s the messaging. But the problem is that if the government shuts down, there are a lot of healthcare extensions and services that begin to expire immediately. I read off a list of them: community health centers, Medicare adjustments, ambulance payment programs, disaster medical systems — the works. The irony is that the parts Democrats hate the most about the Trump administration don’t shut down. ICE doesn’t go anywhere. Deportations still happen. Those are essential — and Trump’s people decide what counts as essential.

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The fight, according to Democrats, is over Obamacare subsidies and Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill. But those cuts don’t even kick in until after the midterms. Meanwhile, essential Democratic priorities lose funding the moment the lights go out. And that’s the trap. They’re betting that Trump wants to make a deal — that he wants to look like a bipartisan dealmaker. Maybe they believe they can spin this into a win. But let’s remember what happened the last time Trump tried that in 2018: he got nothing.

If they’re hoping for Trump to ride in and rescue them, that’s a risky game. The GOP Senate and House leaders — Thune and Johnson — are more than happy to let this ride. Hell, there are people in that party who love a shutdown. It’s a stress test for them, a chance to see what happens when the government turns off. And the data doesn’t look good for Democrats. A New York Times/Siena poll had just 27% of all respondents — and only a slim plurality of Democrats — supporting the idea of a shutdown if demands aren’t met. That’s a brutal place to be when you’re the one pulling the trigger.

So here we are: Schumer boxed in, the party divided, and the shutdown clock striking midnight. Maybe there’s a backdoor deal. Maybe Trump throws them a rope. But right now? The only guaranteed outcome is pain.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:41 - Shutdown

00:08:42 - Interview with Evan Scrimshaw

00:30:33 - Update

00:31:21 - Hegseth’s Meeting

00:34:42 - Schweikert for Gov

00:36:09 - NYT Polling on Shutdown

00:37:06 - Interview with Evan Scrimshaw (con’t)

01:15:30 - Wrap-up

The looming government shutdown — now just days away — has escalated dramatically. Russ Vought, Trump’s former OMB director and the key architect behind the original administration firings, circulated a memo this week warning agencies to prepare for a “reduction in force” if funding lapses. The message was clear: if there’s a shutdown, he plans to fire as many people as possible and make those firings stick. In his words, the Democrats would be handing him a gift. It’s what he’s always wanted to do, and he’s daring them to let it happen.

Democrats, for their part, view this as a scare tactic, a way to push them into passing a clean continuing resolution. They’ve been offered essentially the best deal possible under GOP control: Biden-era spending levels and no controversial riders. Still, they’re rejecting it. Even lawmakers from districts and states with large numbers of federal employees — Chris Van Hollen, Glenn Ivey, Patty Murray, Mark Warner — are standing firm. For them, this is about resisting what they see as Trump-aligned plans to gut the federal workforce.

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Some Republicans are framing the mass firing threat as leverage, not a goal. Bernie Moreno said he supports the memo as a negotiating tactic but wants to avoid a shutdown. Susan Collins and Mike Lawler both expressed discomfort with using federal workers as bargaining chips but pointed out that the solution is simple: just vote for the clean CR. Speaker Mike Johnson, meanwhile, is pressing hard, accusing Democrats of preferring illegal immigrants to federal employees by insisting on funding Obamacare and Medicare subsidies that Republicans argue benefit non-citizens.

So where does that leave us? A shutdown happens when Congress fails to pass, and the President fails to sign, either the full appropriations bill or a continuing resolution before the start of the fiscal year. When that happens, agencies are prohibited from spending money, except on activities deemed essential to life, property, or national security. Non-essential employees are furloughed, contractors go unpaid, and essential workers like the military and TSA keep working without pay. We’re set to enter this world on October 1st.

Everything from passport processing to regulatory enforcement gets paused. Federal contractors, especially in areas around DC, take a huge financial hit. Social security checks, Medicare, and mail delivery continue. And while federal workers usually get back pay, contractors often don’t. A shutdown only ends when Congress passes and the President signs a funding bill. That’s why I say this isn’t an “if,” but a “when.” The government will shut down; the only question is how long Democrats are willing to hold out before taking the same deal they’re rejecting now. I don’t think it’ll be long. This isn’t their kind of fight, and they’re about to find out why.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro

03:12 - 107 Days

06:30 - Gov Shutdown

15:30 - Update

15:49 - Hegseth Meeting

18:04 - Kimmel Ratings

19:44 - TikTok

20:43 - Interview with Tom Merritt

55:49 - Wrap-up

The government is shutting down. I guess I don’t know for sure, because it hasn’t happened yet, but… it’s happening. The clearest sign came early: Trump said he’s not meeting with the Democrats. That officially pulls the plug on the last off-ramp. And while I can’t say it’s definite until it’s on the books, every indicator points in that direction.

Leadership on the Democratic side isn’t exactly riding high right now. Hakeem Jeffries is under pressure from both his left and his center — the progressives want more progressive action, and the moderates are feeling the heat from MAGA-friendlier districts. It’s not a great time for him to be vulnerable, especially with redistricting battles looming. Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, still has the earliest months of this Trump administration burned into his memory, failing to shut the government down back then that got him absolutely roasted by his own side. He knows what time it is. If he doesn’t want to lose his job, he needs to be seen doing something. That something is this shutdown.

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Democrats usually enjoy the shutdown game — when Republicans are the ones pulling the trigger. It lets them run the “they hate government” narrative. But now they’re the ones doing it, and that’s unfamiliar ground. It’s not their comfort zone — and it comes with a risk. They tried every angle. They talked to Johnson. They talked to Thune. And then, in what was probably more performance than real strategy, they tried Trump. Trump publicly laughed it off. So now, what are they left with?

The clean CR that already passed the House is still sitting there. That’s funding at Biden levels — not exactly a win for Republicans. But because the Democrats need to do something, they’ve started trying to wrap ACA subsidy extensions and Medicaid cut reversals into the mix. The strategy is a little muddled: are they playing offense or just avoiding looking weak? Either way, without Trump at the table, they’ve got no play left except one. And that’s how we get to where we’re at.

Here’s the question that’s not being asked enough — how does it end? Democrats aren’t built for long-term shutdowns. Their base doesn’t rally around it the same way. The longer it goes, the more Trump gets to talk, and he will talk. If it drags out past a month, Democrats lose. So that means the shutdown won’t last past a month. And if they’re going to vote for the clean CR in the end anyway, what’s the point of all of this? We’ll see. But from where I’m sitting, there’s no chance the government doesn’t shut down.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:07:13 - Gov Shutdown

00:16:47 - Update

00:18:00 - Kimmel

00:26:26 - Tylenol

00:34:25 - TPUSA

00:38:22 - Interview with Claire Meynial

01:23:40 - Wrap-up

Jimmy Kimmel is currently on indefinite leave from his late-night show after a string of events involving remarks he made about Charlie Kirk, a response from the FCC, and a decisive call from Disney leadership. This all unfolded quickly and, frankly, explosively. Brendan Carr of the FCC went on Benny Johnson’s podcast and said Kimmel’s comments were some of the “sickest stuff” he’s heard — and strongly implied that the FCC could take action against affiliate stations airing the show. That’s not subtle, and even if Carr didn’t spell out a punishment, the intent was clear enough to light a fire.

What wasn’t initially emphasized — but I think is even more relevant — is what Carr said at the end of that podcast appearance. He laid the pressure squarely on affiliate stations, reminding them that it’s their licenses that are under the FCC’s purview. And it wasn’t long before two affiliate groups, Nexstar and Sinclair, pulled Kimmel from their airwaves. That’s a big move. Deadline later reported that Disney’s Dana Walden personally told Kimmel his show would be preempted. Sources say Kimmel refused to apologize, and Disney feared that letting him go further might make the controversy even worse.

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Disney’s version, delivered through Deadline, painted it as a measured decision — that they were protecting Kimmel from himself. But the reality is, affiliate pressure likely had more to do with this than the FCC ever did. Nexstar, for example, owns affiliates in places like Hartford, Augusta, Rockford, and Sioux City. These aren’t New York or LA. These are markets where a majority of the viewership is conservative. Nexstar and Sinclair didn’t just blink. They jumped — and demanded an apology and even donations to Turning Point USA before they'd consider letting Kimmel back on air. That’s not just a request. That’s an ultimatum.

Capitol Hill responded almost immediately. Eric Swalwell wore a Jimmy Kimmel hat on CNN. Jasmine Crockett called for his return. The concern from Democrats is clear — they see this as a chilling of speech, a federal agency leaning on a private company to silence a critical voice. And Kimmel has long been one of the most visible anti-Trump figures in mainstream media. This isn’t out of nowhere. It’s part of a longer arc — one that started when his monologues became Claptor-heavy political salvos, and even his own writers started peeling off.

Here’s what I think. Carr’s comments went too far. I’ve listened to that podcast more than once. Maybe he meant to be more cautious, but it didn’t land that way. When you hold a job like FCC commissioner, your words carry weight — and in this case, they were taken very seriously. That said, I also don’t think this was a one-man takedown. Kimmel has probably been a thorn in the side of these affiliate stations for years. This may have just been the opportunity they were waiting for.

These affiliate networks serve a lot of red-leaning districts. That’s just reality. And when Kimmel’s show becomes a lightning rod, they have every incentive to bail — especially when broadcast TV isn’t the financial powerhouse it used to be. ABC and Disney might be saying they want Kimmel back on air, but I think they’re daring him to quit. This could easily end with a quiet settlement and a new direction for the network. Twenty-two years is a long time. Maybe too long for a show that’s increasingly out of step with its audience — or at least the parts of it that keep the lights on in places advertisers care about.

If this had happened in 2017, I think Disney would have fought. They would have leaned into the resistance branding, defended Kimmel publicly, and gone head-to-head with the FCC. But the landscape has shifted. Those same resistance-aligned outlets that thrived post-2016 have been struggling for attention ever since 2024. Maybe this isn’t a cave to authoritarian pressure. Maybe it’s just chasing a different audience — one that wants less fire and more quiet. Either way, the message is clear. Kimmel’s position isn’t as solid as it used to be. And neither is the appetite for that kind of voice on network television.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:17 - Jimmy Kimmel

00:31:57 - Update

00:32:50 - Eleanor Norton

00:34:01 - Tariffs Head to Supreme Court

00:35:33 - Erika Kirk

00:38:06 - Interview with Michael Cohen

01:42:11 - Wrap-up

Utah prosecutors have charged 22-year-old Tyler Robinson with aggravated murder in the shooting of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk. The charges include obstruction of justice, witness tampering, and multiple firearm offenses. According to the affidavit, Robinson confessed to both his roommate — with whom he was in a romantic relationship — and his father. Investigators say Robinson admitted that the motive was political. He told his roommate that “some hate cannot be negotiated” and accused Kirk of “spreading hatred.”

Prosecutors allege that Robinson carved antifascist slogans into the bullet casings used in the shooting. They say he left behind clothes and a backpack at the scene, both of which tested positive for his DNA. A bolt-action rifle was found nearby. Surveillance footage and Discord messages allegedly link Robinson to planning the attack, though he has not spoken directly to police. His roommate, someone transitioning from male to female who has not been publicly identified, is cooperating with investigators.

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Also at the scene was a second man, George Zinn, who approached police with a knife and told them to shoot him. Zinn allegedly said he had been trying to help Robinson escape. He has not been charged in the shooting, but prosecutors say he was found with child pornography. The two men were not known to each other before that day.

This case does not follow the familiar patterns of mental instability or mass shooting chaos. Prosecutors have outlined what they describe as a deliberate, targeted act with ideological motivation. Robinson allegedly stated that he believed the shooting would be “the only way” to stop Kirk. The firearm used was a bolt-action rifle, which indicates planning rather than impulsivity.

Governor Spencer Cox, in his television appearances, struck a more composed tone than in his initial press conference. That earlier moment felt like a political speech. Over the weekend, however, he appeared more focused on unity and de-escalation. That stands in contrast to Trump, whose responses were angrier and more inflammatory. The White House has not issued a formal statement, but administration officials have been briefed.

One of the major talking points emerging in political media is whether this attack fits into a broader pattern. Names like Paul Pelosi and Ashli Babbitt have been floated — but what happened here is categorically different. The suspect allegedly had a motive, a plan, and a clear ideological framework. This was not senseless. According to prosecutors, it was intentional and politically driven.

It's still early, and these are only allegations. But the details laid out so far paint a clear picture: a targeted political killing, carried out in public, with motive stated directly. That’s rare. And it’s something we’ll be forced to grapple with as the trial unfolds.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:15 - Charlie Kirk Suspect Arrested

00:09:53 - Interview with Karol Markowicz

00:53:28 - Update

00:54:01 - Pam Bondi Hate Speech

00:57:39 - Epstein

01:00:15 - Hakeem Jeffries and Zohran Mamdani

01:02:53 - Interview with Ryan McBeth

01:52:45 - Wrap-up