Elon Musk set off a grenade in conservative circles this week, trashing the one big, beautiful bill Trump has staked so much on. He didn’t just throw shade — he called it a “disgusting abomination,” backed Rand Paul’s $5 trillion deficit claim, and waved the American flag emoji as punctuation. This wasn’t a random tweet. This was Musk choosing to detonate right as Speaker Mike Johnson is working the Senate hard to shepherd this bill into law. Johnson, for his part, did respond, claiming he had a 20-minute phone call with Musk where the topic never came up. But c’mon — that silence says a lot. Either Johnson’s not telling the whole story, or Musk baited him. Neither looks great.

The timing is brutal. Musk has been a reliable MAGA ally — hosting DeSantis’s launch, reshaping Twitter into a free speech battleground, becoming a key donor and message amplifier. When he turns on your signature policy, it signals open season. And it’s not just personal. Elon hates the EV credit phase-outs in the bill. He’s furious about the AI regulatory overrides that strip individual from states like California. And his businesses, from SpaceX to Starlink, all have reasons to be wary of the bill’s broader tech oversight. So what looked like a united conservative front just fractured — and it fractured loudly. This is the part of the process where fights get public. And loud. And weird.

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Iowa and the 2024 Remap

It’s moments like this that make me appreciate the Iowa caucus even more. Say what you will about the process — yes, it’s clunky, yes, it can be exclusionary — but nobody works harder at retail politics than Iowans. I’ve been in diners, VFW halls, and school gyms across that state. These are folks who grill candidates, push policy details, and actually pay attention. Compare that to South Carolina, which Biden bumped to the front of the line for the Democratic primary. That move was clearly strategic — to avoid an early embarrassment — but it came at a cost. The engagement just isn’t the same. You can walk into a bar in Manchester and get into a policy debate with a random guy sipping Busch Light. That’s not happening in Columbia.

Now, there’s a window to fix it. With 2024 settled, both parties could realign the primary calendar — and they should. Let Iowa go first. Let New Hampshire follow. Put South Carolina third, Nevada fourth. Let people earn it. The current process is dominated by consultants who don’t want surprises. But surprises are good. They shake things up. They reveal flaws. They test candidates in real-time, not just in sanitized TV town halls. If you want to know who can campaign in a blizzard, let 'em face a real one. Bring back the vetting. Bring back the grit.

Deal Deadlines and Tiers of Importance

Then there’s the global chessboard. June marks the end of the 90-day tariff pause Trump announced on Liberation Day — his dramatic trade reset. That pause gave negotiators time to cut new deals, to defuse tensions. But with just weeks left, where are the deals? Trump hasn’t sealed anything. Not with China. Not with India. Not with Vietnam, or Mexico, or even Taiwan. Instead, he’s hosting white paper summits and showing off 2017 flashbacks. The branding is tight, but the substance is lagging.

Look at the scoreboard. Ukraine was inching toward peace talks — then dropped a drone strike that disabled a third of Russia’s bomber fleet. That doesn’t scream “diplomatic breakthrough.” Gaza? The American-backed aid initiative is collapsing under mutual mistrust and unconfirmed shootings. We’re left trying to guess which footage is real and which claims are propaganda. And while all this plays out, the trade environment remains stuck. Japan, South Korea, Australia — they’re locked into frameworks that don’t need rewriting. The real action would be a comprehensive tariff reset with Mexico or Vietnam, or a groundbreaking semiconductor pact with Taiwan. But so far, we’re getting press releases, not treaties.

So here’s how I see it. You’ve got three tiers of trade potential. Tier 1: countries that matter symbolically — Canada, UK, the Netherlands. Deals here look good but don’t move markets. Tier 2: mid-size powerhouses like South Korea, Japan, and Germany. All three matter for automotives, while South Korea and Japan both matter for their tech sectors. Finally, Tier 3 is where it counts: China, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, India. If Trump can close one deal there, he regains the upper hand. If he can’t, he enters the summer with big talk and no wins — just in time for Senate Democrats to go on offense. Time is ticking.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:10 - Elon Trashes the BBB

00:08:09 - Iowa Caucus

00:11:24 - Trump Trade Tiers

00:22:14 - Interview with Michael Cohen

00:49:52 - Update

00:50:33 - Big Beautiful Bill Senate Discussions

00:53:05 - Jaime Harrison Comments

00:55:08 - Trump China Trade Talks

00:57:23 - Interview with Michael Cohen, con’t.

01:35:36 - Wrap-up

When it comes to tariffs, we’ve done the hokey pokey and turned ourselves around — and yes, that is what it’s all about. Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs are back on the table, and it’s been a wild 24 hours.

Right after I wrapped our paid bonus episode, a three-judge panel ruled that Donald Trump doesn’t have the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — the IEPA — to unilaterally place tariffs on foreign nations. That law, which dates back to the 1970s, gives the president emergency powers to impose economic sanctions or tariffs if there’s a national emergency. Trump had been using it as the backbone for his tariff strategy, claiming national emergency status and going after trading partners.

The ruling, at least temporarily, blew that up. If Trump doesn’t have that authority, he loses a huge leverage point in trade negotiations. All of a sudden, the calls from the EU, from Japan, from India — which I’ve heard is close — they get a lot slower. The power dynamic shifts. Trump becomes just another guy asking for a deal, not the guy with a threat to back it up. And to be clear, he wasn’t actively raising tariffs — he’d actually pulled many of them back or paused them — but that’s part of the strategy. The threat of a tariff can be just as powerful as the tariff itself.

The markets liked the news. Stocks surged. And Trump was caught in a classic rock-and-a-hard-place moment. But then, just as I was landing and debating whether to even record, the appellate court reverses the first ruling. Suddenly, Trump’s back in the game. His authority over the IEPA is restored… for now.

Does this matter for what’s happening in the Senate right now? Probably not directly. But for trade negotiations? Absolutely. I think deals are going to move fast. If you’re a trading partner and you think there’s a window before this hits the Supreme Court — and it might — you move. You get your best deal now. You say, “Here’s the offer, take it or leave it,” and Trump might be more inclined to take it than he was before.

I’m not a trade expert. I’m just calling it like I see it. But from the seat of my pants, this looks like a flashpoint. The kind of legal back-and-forth that opens the door to some quicker deals than we otherwise might’ve seen.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:00:55 - Interview with Kirk Bado

00:47:30 - Update and Tariff Madness

00:52:13 - Interview with Katherine Dee

01:25:25 - Wrap-up

This weekend, the New York Times ran a piece titled Six Months Later, Democrats Are Still Searching for the Path Forward, and it was bleak. The lead quote came from Anat Shenker-Osorio, a favorite of this show, describing Democrats as sloths, snails, and most devastatingly, a deer in headlights. That last one feels accurate, especially when you look at the post-election breakdown from Catalist, a Democratic-aligned polling firm. We’ll dive deeper into that next week with Michael Cohen, but the short version? The coalition looks grim.

Democrats are losing ground, and it’s not just because of Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. It’s not just about the top of the ticket. It’s structural. They don’t have a message that resonates, and they don’t have a coalition that can win. When you look at how the electorate has shifted since 2012 — through 2016, 2020, and now 2024 — the trend is clear. Wide swaths of the country keep moving right. This is not just a Trump story. This is a cultural shift.

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There are a few bright spots — like John Ossoff. The Atlanta suburbs are still trending blue, which gives him a strong base going into his re-election. But one candidate’s survival isn’t a strategy. The bigger problem is Democrats losing voters they used to count on, and then reacting like anthropologists studying a foreign culture. Take the new $20 million project codenamed SAM — “Speaking with American Men.” The plan is to understand what language appeals to young men online and then buy ad space in video games. I’m not kidding.

I’ll save you the $20 million. Want to understand American men? Go to a sports bar at lunch. Talk to the bartender. Watch what’s on TV. It’s going to be Capitals games, Commanders games, maybe Nationals if they’re hot. Ask what name the bartender uses — Commanders or Redskins — and pay attention. That’s a signal. Look around. You’ll see a guy without sleeves. His name is Pat McAfee. He parlayed a Barstool podcast into a national show that’s shaping how a huge swath of American men consume sports and culture.

McAfee is the demographic. Not the man, but the space he occupies. You don’t need to book him — in fact, don’t. But understand what kind of guests are on his show. What they talk about. What they joke about. The cultural signals they send. Most aren’t overtly political, but they skew conservative. They care about sports, performance, and authenticity. They aren’t trying to be progressive heroes. They’re just being themselves — and Democrats don’t know how to speak to that.

The real issue is that Democrats think everything is messaging. They believe their phrasing is so perfect, so tested, that if people just heard it the right way, it would work. But voters aren’t lab rats. They’re not waiting for the next DNC ad drop to form their opinions. They’re watching comedians joke about trans athletes. They’re laughing at jokes about liberal overreach. They’re reacting to a world where Democrats are often cast as anti-fun and anti-speech. And white men — yes, still the overwhelming majority of this country — don’t respond well to being told they’re the problem from the start.

So how do you reach them? Start by understanding who’s already reaching them. Then think about what message would land quietly on a show like Pat McAfee’s. Not what would stand out. What would blend in. That’s the Rosetta Stone. Speak in a way that doesn’t sound like a speech. Get out of your own head. Stop trying to convert — start trying to connect.

And meanwhile, while Democrats strategize over lunch buffets at luxury hotels, Trump is climbing in the polls. The idea that he’s getting “less popular” is just wrong. His lowest point was late April. Since then, his numbers have rebounded. His approval is hovering around 47 percent. That’s good — especially for someone who normally lives in the 30s. Right now, more Americans think the country is on the right track under Trump than they ever did under Biden. The direction-of-the-country numbers are strong. For Trump. That’s insane. And Democrats ignore it at their peril.

They keep underestimating him. They keep assuming the messaging is enough. But Trump is talking about tax cuts for tips and overtime. Democrats are voting for them too — the Senate just passed a version 100 to 0. They know it polls well. They just don’t want to say it out loud unless it’s their version.

Politics is about trust. And the Biden White House broke it. When it’s he said, she said, voters side with the one who hasn’t lied to them. That’s Trump right now. And if Democrats want to change that, they’ve got to start being honest — not just with the public, but with themselves.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:44 - Democrat Rebranding Struggles

00:26:16 - Update

00:27:34 - US-EU Trade Talks and Consumer Confidence

00:31:32 - Senate Republican Fiscal Concerns

00:34:34 - Covid Vaccine Recommendations Pulled

00:37:52 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke

01:04:15 - Wrap-up

The madman did it. Mike Johnson pushed the Big Beautiful Bill through the House in a razor-thin 215–214 vote, with one Republican voting present. It happened in the early hours of the morning, after an all-night session where, reportedly, one GOP member literally fell asleep during the vote. It’s wild how this keeps happening: Johnson, backed by Trump, threads the needle just enough to claim victory — first on his own speakership, then on the budget, and now on the crown jewel of Trump’s second-term domestic agenda.

The vote was close, but this wasn’t chaos. It was strategy. Johnson avoided making promises, waited out the loudest factions, and let Trump do the squeezing. First, the SALT caucus got its $40,000 cap. Then, once the blue-state Republicans were on board, the House Freedom Caucus got summoned to the White House. Trump made it clear — get in line. And they mostly did.

What’s Actually in the Bill

The bill itself is massive. It permanently extends the 2017 Trump tax cuts. It temporarily exempts tips, overtime, and auto loan interest from taxes through 2028. It raises the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 for households earning up to $500,000. It imposes work requirements on Medicaid recipients aged 18 to 65 who don’t have disabilities or young children. It bans Medicaid and CHIP from covering gender-affirming care. It cuts federal funding to states offering Medicaid to undocumented immigrants.

Then there’s the border and defense spending: $46.5 billion for the wall, $4.1 billion for more Border Patrol agents, $1,000 asylum application fees, nearly $150 billion for defense, including missile shields and naval expansion. It throws in a Trump Savings Account for kids, expands 529s for education, and guts clean energy tax credits earlier than expected. This is not a modest proposal. This is the full kitchen sink — and it cleared the House.

The Congressional Budget Office says it’ll add $3.8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. For a party that used to live and die by fiscal restraint, it’s a hell of a turn. And yet, what’s striking is that Democrats are the ones now talking about debt again. The shift is real. But the counterargument is simple: we’ve been living under this tax structure for seven years. Making it permanent just formalizes the status quo. The new spending and credits? That’s where the fight will be.

Next Stop: The Senate Wall

None of this becomes law unless it gets through the Senate — and that’s a very different battlefield. The GOP has three votes to spare. And their best lobbyist is JD Vance, who’s barely spent any time in the chamber. This is not the House. Rand Paul is a hard no. Ron Johnson is already calling out the deficit. Susan Collins is watching the optics. McConnell still looms over the process, even if he’s stepping back from leadership.

The House version of this bill isn’t making it. Changes are coming — the question is whether they come from the right or the left. Johnson’s strategy got him this far. But in the Senate, Trump’s grip isn’t as strong, and the margin is even tighter. The message is clear: they passed it out of the House, but the real negotiation starts now.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:12 - Big Beautiful Bill Passes House

00:13:34 - Interview with Ryan McBeth

00:46:17 - Update

00:47:21 - Israeli Embassy Shooting

01:02:26 - Senate Bill Response

01:04:15 - Texas Hemp Ban

01:06:06 - Interview with Ryan McBeth, cont.

01:34:29 - Wrap-up

Donald Trump went to Capitol Hill this week to push House Republicans across the finish line on his big domestic policy bill. Behind closed doors, he told conservatives not to “F— around with Medicaid,” and told blue-state Republicans to take the SALT deal on the table: $40,000 for four years, then snapping back to $30,000. That would cover about 90% of blue-state filers, but not the ones making the most noise. Even with Trump applying pressure, guys like Andy Harris and Mike Lawler are still holding out. Some members are softening, but others like Thomas Massie are dug in. So, for now, Speaker Mike Johnson’s goal of getting a vote within 48 hours is shaky at best.

The bill itself is massive — over 1,100 pages, with tax cuts, defense spending increases, and border policy changes. It would still remove Medicaid coverage for more than seven million people, depending on which estimate you believe. And of course, any version that passes the House is going to get shredded in the Senate. Whatever they vote on now, they’ll end up voting on something worse later. So a lot of this feels like performance. The fight is real if you’re in the trenches, but from the outside, it looks like an inevitable mess.

The bottom line is that they have to pass this. Everyone’s worried about the attack ads, about the carveouts, about what they’ll be blamed for, but if they don’t pass this, they’ve got nothing. No achievements. No wins. And that’s a death sentence for 2026. Trump knows it, and that’s why he’s pushing so hard. The longer this drags out, the more nervous the business community gets. Right now, things are relatively stable — tariffs are high but consistent, regulations are locked in, and the tax code hasn’t changed yet. That kind of stability is gold to investors. It gives them permission to move. If you pass this bill now, businesses start planning in Q3, making decisions in Q4, and consumers start to feel it by next summer — right as the midterms heat up.

And that’s the ballgame. Republicans don’t want to be running in 2026 on the ghost of Joe Biden’s presidency. They want to run on Trump’s second-term economy. They want to say, “This is what we did. Do you want to go back?” That’s the message — and it only works if the economy is good. So from a strategic perspective, if you’re a Democrat, you want this thing to grind. Drag it out. Make the House Freedom Caucus fight harder. Blow it all up and pray the delay ruins the timeline. Because that’s the only way this thing doesn’t end in a campaign-ready boom for Republicans.

My guess? The bill passes the House in the next five days. I don’t see what changes between now and the two-week delay the Freedom Caucus wants. Someone’s going to have to eat it, and most likely, that someone is going to realize there’s no better option coming. As for the SALT caucus — I’m still not sure what they’re waiting for. Whatever it is, it’s not making them look particularly sympathetic to the rest of the country.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:37 - Original Sin Book Thoughts (with Chris Cillizza)

00:35:17 - Update

00:39:13 - Big Beautiful Bull

00:48:41 - Russia Talks

00:53:17 - Kristi Noem

00:57:42 - Original Sin and the State of Cable News (with Chris Cillizza)

01:37:56 - Wrap-up

Joe Biden has aggressive prostate cancer. That news dropped as we were getting ready to record today’s show, and it immediately redefined everything I had planned for this episode. The White House says he found out late last week. But after everything we’ve seen — after everything we now know — I just don’t buy it. Not on its face. Not without skepticism. And certainly not from a team that has serially misled the public about this president’s health.

This isn’t partisan. This isn’t about political advantage. It’s about trust. And the Biden White House has burned every ounce of trust it ever had on the question of Joe Biden’s mental and physical condition. We were told he was sharp. We were told he was healthy. We were told the only concerns were conspiracy theories. Now we’re told he has bone-level prostate cancer and just found out a few days ago. The story does not add up.

We’ve known — not speculated, but known — that Biden’s team actively suppressed signs of his decline. It’s the core premise of the new book Original Sin by Alex Thompson and Jake Tapper. In it, we learn the White House doctor predicted Biden would be wheelchair-bound in a second term. We hear about the memory lapses, the failures to recognize people close to him, the moments that were carefully hidden or brushed aside. The story isn’t new — it’s just finally being told with names attached. And that’s the part that stings.

Because for those of us who were watching this unfold in real time, the media’s about-face is galling. Take Jake Tapper. He’s now co-author of the book and the face of its rollout — doing long, self-congratulatory segments on CNN about the secrets he’s finally exposing. But these weren’t secrets to people who were paying attention. Fox News ran segments on Biden’s decline all throughout 2023 and 2024. Clips went viral. The press dismissed them as “cheap fakes.” And now Tapper’s shocked — shocked — to find out the emperor has no clothes?

That’s what grates. Not just the cover-up, but the theater around its unmasking. The same people who waved it away are now acting like they cracked the case. And worse, they’re treating the rest of us like we weren’t there watching them do it. CNN actually responded to a viral clip reel of Tapper’s past dismissals by calling it “disingenuously edited.” The same playbook they criticized the White House for using. You can’t gaslight people and then write a book about how gaslighting is wrong.

And now we get to the real question: what did they know, and when did they know it? Did Biden already have this diagnosis when he decided to run for reelection? Did his inner circle? Did the press? These aren’t cynical questions — they’re essential ones. Because if the answer is yes, then everything about 2024 shifts. Every calculation, every debate, every moment the press refused to ask harder questions — it all changes. Because this wasn’t about a stutter or a slip of the tongue. This was about a man with a potentially terminal illness running for the most demanding job on the planet.

The cleanest way for Biden to bow out was always going to be health-related. I said it on this show more than once. If he ever had to step aside, cancer would be the story. Not scandal, not defeat — just a body failing a man who still wanted to fight. I didn’t think he’d actually get cancer. But now that he has, the question isn’t whether he should drop out. The question is whether he was ever in the race honestly to begin with.

We deserve the truth. Not just out of respect for the office, but because the American people shouldn’t be the last to know that their president is unwell. And certainly not after being lied to for years about how well he was.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro

01:26 - Joe Biden’s Cancer Diagnosis

13:04 - Jake Tapper’s CNN Broadcast

27:17 - Wrap-up

The Big Beautiful Bill is finally past the quiet phase. The behind-the-scenes negotiations have spilled into the open, and now we’re in the bloodletting. Speaker Mike Johnson wants this out of the House by Memorial Day, which means committee votes need to happen, and fast. But right now, the Budget Committee is a problem. Hardliners are balking — Ralph Norman, Josh Brecheen, and Chip Roy are all leaning no. They’re not satisfied with the Congressional Budget Office’s timeline for a cost estimate, and they’re worried the Medicaid changes could pressure red states into expanding coverage.

Mike Lawler and Marjorie Taylor Greene are fighting on Twitter over SALT deductions — state and local tax breaks — and that fight is not going away. There’s talk of raising the cap from $30,000 to $40,000 or adjusting the phase-out thresholds. But this is exactly why they’re doing one big bill instead of multiple smaller ones. Everyone knew it was going to be painful. Nobody wanted to go through this kind of battle again and again for every policy item.

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Still, I’m bullish. It’s ugly right now, but that doesn’t mean it’s doomed. The usual sign of failure — a flood of press conferences from members declaring the bill dead — hasn’t happened. Republicans aren’t holding cameras. They’re texting reporters. They’re venting in group chats. But they’re not going on record saying they’ll tank Trump’s agenda. That’s a big difference. This isn’t like other bills I’ve seen die. It still feels like something they’re going to get through — just barely.

The key players are all doing what they need to do. Trump is overseas for now, but his influence is still real. He got Johnson the speaker’s gavel. He’s kept this whole thing moving. When he’s back, the pressure campaign ramps up. Meanwhile, JD Vance is already starting his Senate charm offensive to get reconciliation done once it clears the House. They know they’ll lose a few senators, but they’re planning for that. The goal is to get something — anything — through.

And here’s what’s actually in it: no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security for anyone making under $150,000. Yes, those provisions sunset in four years, but let’s be honest — once they go into effect, they’re not going anywhere. Nobody’s going to vote to take those benefits away from working people. Republicans used to hate that logic — the “give a mouse a cookie” approach to entitlements — but now they’re writing the cookies themselves. And they’re going to love running on them.

This bill is messy. It’s jammed with contradictions. It’s being held together with string and prayers. But I still think it passes. And if it does, the Trump administration gets to claim a huge legislative win — not just a headline, but real, sticky policy that people will feel in their paychecks. That’s the ballgame.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:52 - Big Beautiful Bill Progress

00:15:51 - Interview with Bill Scher

00:39:39 - Update

00:40:23 - Inflation

00:43:36 - Supreme Court Birthright Citizenship

00:45:44 - Iran Nuclear Deal, "Sort Of"

00:47:57 - The News Sheriff

00:53:03 - Interview with Bill Scher (con't)

01:18:02 - Wrap-up

Donald Trump is rumored to have a plan to receive a $400 million plane from Qatar, retrofitted to serve as Air Force One. On its face, it’s a straightforward diplomatic gift to the United States, meant to replace aging presidential aircraft. But the controversy kicked into overdrive with reports that this plane could eventually end up in Trump’s hands personally, via his presidential library. That’s where things get murky.

Let’s start with facts. The two current Air Force One planes have been flying since the George H.W. Bush era. They’re overdue for replacement, and Boeing was contracted to deliver new ones. But Boeing’s been a mess—delays, scandals, technical issues. Trump, frustrated with the pace, toured a Qatari 747-8 already fitted for luxury use. This plane is 13 years old, but still valued around $400 million.

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Now, Qatar is a massive buyer of American military hardware. We’re talking $26 billion in purchases over the past decade. In that context, a $400 million jet as a gesture of goodwill isn’t shocking. What makes this different is the personal angle. According to ABC’s original report, Trump’s library would receive the plane by January 1, 2029 — before Trump’s successor takes office, and potentially before Boeing’s replacements are ready. If true, that would mean Trump gets to keep a retrofitted Air Force One for personal use, while the next president is stuck with the old models.

For me, that’s the red line. If Trump forces his successor to downgrade because he took the new plane for himself, that’s blatant self-dealing. If the plane stays in the rotation until Boeing delivers, and only then moves to his library, it becomes more of a vanity project — still unusual, but not unprecedented. Reagan’s old Air Force One is parked at his library, after all. You can even see it in some of Trump’s old debates, the ones held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

But Reagan’s plane wasn’t transferred to him personally right after his presidency. It stayed in service until Clinton’s term ended before being disassembled and reassembled in Simi Valley. Trump’s timeline — if ABC’s reporting holds — would be far more aggressive, and far more self-serving.

The frustrating part is how little clarity we’ve gotten. Most coverage fixates on whether it’s “appropriate” for Qatar to give the U.S. a plane. That’s not the interesting question. The real issue is when Trump plans to take personal control of it. That’s what determines whether this is normal diplomatic horse-trading — or brazen corruption.

Until we get a straight answer on that, this story stays in limbo. Potential scandal or overblown noise — we just don’t know yet.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:55 - Qatari Plane Deal

00:18:10 - Update

00:21:19 - John Fetterman

00:24:52 - David Hogg

00:27:13 - Inflation

00:31:11 - Interview with Matt Laslo

01:17:52 - Wrap-up

Brian Kemp is out. No Senate run in 2026, and that shifts the entire field. Kemp was the Republican Party’s best shot at flipping the Georgia seat currently held by Jon Ossoff — and he knew it. He didn’t just flirt with the idea. He let it hang out there long enough for donors, strategists, and journalists to start treating it as likely. So when he made it official this weekend, it sent shockwaves through the Georgia GOP and national Republicans hoping for a clean, high-profile pickup in a battleground state.

Let’s be clear: Kemp would’ve been a problem for Ossoff. He’s a two-term governor with a reputation for competency, no Trump baggage, and enough distance from the MAGA wing to appeal to suburban voters. He beat Stacey Abrams twice. He stared down Trump in 2020 and walked away stronger. There are few Republicans who can claim that kind of profile. Without him, the bench gets thin — and fast.

Ossoff is already pulling in national dollars, and now he doesn’t have to spend the next 12 months preparing for a Kemp-style challenge. That gives him time to build narrative, define the race early, and lock down coalitions that might’ve been vulnerable in a high-turnout, split-ticket election. Democrats don’t have to win Georgia by a landslide — they just need to hold it. And in a cycle that’s already looking rough for Republicans in other swing states, the GOP needed Georgia to be easy. It’s not.

Now the question becomes whether Republicans want to rally around a moderate and play defense, or roll the dice with a firebrand and try to rally the base. Either option carries risk. A moderate might not excite anyone. A MAGA pick might turn the whole race into a referendum on January 6 or Trump loyalty. And the problem with a crowded primary isn’t just messaging — it’s money. Ossoff gets to hoard his resources while Republicans knife each other in the dark.

It’s early, but the GOP just lost its best card. And unless something big changes — a surprise retirement, a shocking recruit, a sudden scandal — this race has quietly shifted from “toss-up” to “lean blue.” Not because Ossoff is invincible. But because the Republican bench is looking thin, the calendar is ticking, and Brian Kemp just said, “No thanks.” Heck, if Marjorie Taylor-Greene steps in, it might just be Ossoff +7. And it will not be for lack of news coverage.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:48 - Brian Kemp Not Running for Senate

00:06:18 - Interview with Aubrey Sitterson

01:14:20 - Wrap-up

May 2025 might go down as the most pivotal month of Donald Trump’s second presidency. The post-Liberation Day disruption gave him room to play the chaos card — but that only lasts so long. Now it’s time to deliver. And according to what the White House is telling Congress behind closed doors, a lot is in motion. Sixty countries are either actively negotiating trade terms or exchanging paperwork with the administration. Congress is being told these deals won’t require their approval, which Congress, for the record, does not agree with. But this is Trump we’re talking about — when has he ever waited for a vote?

Still, the big names you’d expect — China, Canada, Mexico — aren’t in the mix. China’s radio silent, Mexico and Canada are being folded into existing USMCA renegotiations. That leaves three countries reportedly close to a deal: the United Kingdom, Australia, and most importantly, India. India isn’t just geopolitically important — it’s the key to rewriting how America competes with China. A deal there could shift the entire narrative.

Why India Matters More Than You Think

India is the crown jewel of this effort. There's personal chemistry between Trump and Modi, which helps. JD Vance just visited India, and his family ties only reinforce the good vibes. But this isn’t just a soft power thing. India offers cheap manufacturing, which Trump badly needs to offset Chinese trade disruption. If you’re going to tell a story about reindustrializing America and cutting reliance on Beijing, India is where you start.

There’s also the intellectual property angle. India doesn’t have the same IP hang-ups as China, which means Trump could insert protections into this deal and claim it as a model for future negotiations — including, eventually, with China. It’s the kind of pivot that’s both symbolic and real. Add in niche export wins — like bourbon or Harley-Davidsons, which have demand in India but face big trade hurdles — and suddenly you’ve got tangible proof of progress.

Fast Deals, Reversible Wins

Here’s the catch: none of these deals are expected to go through Congress. They’re handshake deals. That means they can be reversed at any moment — by Trump himself. And that’s kind of the point. Trump wants to touch every single part of the negotiation. No detail moves without his approval. That gives him the power to declare victory on anything, even if the actual text doesn’t amount to much.

So the real question isn’t whether Trump can get a deal. It’s whether he can get one that’s meaningful — and fast. Because right now, the administration needs wins. Not headlines. Not vibes. Wins. The stock market is shaky, the trade war with China is frozen, and the White House knows it’s currently heading into the midterms with a record that still feels unsettled. India might be the win they’ve been waiting for. But if it doesn’t land soon, the window to define this presidency might close a lot faster than anyone expects.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:00:15 - Tariff Negotiations

00:10:11 - Worst State Party Draft, part one

00:41:37 - Update

00:42:36 - Mike Waltz Goes to the U.N.

00:44:48 - Alien Enemies Act Ruling

00:48:55 - Ukraine Mineral Deal

00:51:55 - Worst State Party Draft, part two

01:34:53 - Wrap-up