For decades, Beijing has pursued a simple strategy towards Taiwan: the carrot and the stick. The stick comes in the form of military drills, missile launches, and increasingly aggressive displays of force designed to remind Taiwan of China's power. The carrot is soft diplomacy: business opportunities, cultural exchanges, economic integration, and promises of prosperity under closer ties with the mainland.

The problem is that neither approach has delivered the outcome the Chinese Communist Party wanted. Since the 1990s, the number of people in Taiwan who identify as Chinese has collapsed, while a distinct Taiwanese identity has surged. That leaves Xi Jinping facing an uncomfortable reality. Taiwan won't come willingly, but a military invasion would be enormously costly. So what happens when both the carrot and the stick fail?

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