Wilmington Mortgage with Tyler Cralle

Rates edged lower Tuesday as the U.S. trade deficit jumped to a 16-month high. That could actually contain some good news for bonds, potentially signaling strong foreign demand for dollars—and possibly more overseas demand for U.S. debt.But Ray Dalio offered a warning, arguing that Asian demand for Treasuries may be weakening as China continues to unwind its holdings and Japan looks to bring more money home. We also break down Nick Timiraos’ latest look at the Federal Reserve and why ending forward guidance may be much easier said than done.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates finally caught a break, posting their first good day in nearly two weeks as fixed-income investors locked in higher yields, the Treasury purchased $6 billion in Treasuries, and Fed officials floated the possibility of skipping a rate hike at the next meeting. Meanwhile, the economic data remained relatively strong, with continuing jobless claims falling to a three-year low and manufacturing activity dipping only slightly while remaining near four-year highs.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

A somewhat quiet day in the bond market still gave investors plenty to think about. Consumer confidence fell to a 12-year low, while job openings dropped to their lowest level since the spring, adding fresh questions about the strength of the economy and labor market.We also look at growing concerns surrounding the yen carry trade and whether it could create more volatility in U.S. Treasuries. Robin Brooks pushes back on that theory, arguing that the correlation between the yen and the bond market simply doesn’t appear to be there.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates continue their historic rise, but the big question is why. Is massive AI spending overheating parts of the economy, or are investors demanding higher yields because of the nation’s $40 trillion debt and concerns over fiscal discipline? Or is it a combination of both? Adding another wrinkle, the 2-year Treasury yield is rising faster than the 10-year, putting concerns about an inverted yield curve—and what it could signal for the economy—back on the table.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Mortgage rates have skyrocketed over the last two days as several major concerns collided in the bond market. Wednesday’s sell-off was driven by stronger economic data, a disappointing Treasury auction, and concerns over a possible diesel ban. The pressure continued Thursday as a solid labor market report and new home sales jumping to a 2026 high reinforced the economy’s resilience. We break down how stronger growth, persistent inflation concerns, and the growing debt debate are converging to push Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Mortgage rates moved lower as a relatively quiet day gave bond markets little reason to sell. We did get some manufacturing data and a small Treasury auction, but neither was enough to shake markets, making this another case where “no news is good news” for rates.We also look at Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks and his thoughts on how the U.S. can address its growing debt problem. Plus, a new study challenges conventional thinking about long-term interest rates, suggesting that r* — the so-called neutral rate — may no longer be the primary driver of longer-term Treasury yields.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Bond yields fell on a quiet Monday as markets digested the Federal Reserve’s continued hawkish tone following last week’s rate hike. With little economic data to drive trading, rates managed to drift lower despite the Fed maintaining its focus on inflation.We also dive into the increasingly confusing AI debate, as investors try to determine whether the massive investment boom is fueling sustainable economic growth or creating new risks for markets and the broader economy.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Mortgage rates fell following the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, as Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a press conference that helped calm the bond market and sent Treasury yields lower. Warsh emphasized price stability while giving investors some reassurance about the path ahead for monetary policy.Elsewhere, pending home sales posted a modest increase, while initial jobless claims fell below 200,000, signaling continued strength in the labor market. The housing supply side was less encouraging, with residential construction continuing to decline as elevated rates and affordability challenges weigh on builders.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Mortgage rates came under renewed pressure as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5% for the first time since 2023. Bond vigilantes continue to push yields higher amid concerns about rising government debt, persistent inflation, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s increasingly combative stance toward the bond market. All of this comes as investors prepare for a major Federal Reserve rate decision that could set the tone for rates moving forward.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates continued to climb as the global bond sell-off intensified, with yields across many major economies reaching levels not seen in roughly 18 years. Rising tensions in the Middle East, including new U.S. strikes on Iran, added even more pressure. Domestically, job openings rose less than expected while manufacturing activity cooled slightly in August. One piece of good news: the House passed a stopgap funding bill that would push the government funding deadline into December.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com