Rates continued to climb as the global bond sell-off intensified, with yields across many major economies reaching levels not seen in roughly 18 years. Rising tensions in the Middle East, including new U.S. strikes on Iran, added even more pressure. Domestically, job openings rose less than expected while manufacturing activity cooled slightly in August. One piece of good news: the House passed a stopgap funding bill that would push the government funding deadline into December.

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Mortgage rates moved higher as the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in August, adding fresh uncertainty to an already volatile bond market. We also break down Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s pushback against the bond vigilantes and why his aggressive defense of the administration’s bond-market strategy may have done more harm than good.

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Mortgage rates were basically unchanged on a quiet Thursday, as jobless claims dipped slightly and several Fed officials spoke from the Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets remained relatively calm, but that could change quickly.Friday has the potential to be much more impactful, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking in Wyoming followed by the annual nonfarm payroll revisions. Those revisions have been substantial over the past two years and could reshape the market’s view of the labor market—and the path for interest rates.

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Mortgage rates fell as the outlook for the war with Iran shifted, sending oil prices lower and giving the bond market some relief. Consumer confidence also dropped to its lowest level since January, while home-price growth accelerated to a 10-month high but continued to trail inflation. Meanwhile, the trade war with Canada is heating up quickly, and we look at why it could ultimately have an impact on the U.S. mortgage market.

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It was Scott Bessent Monday, as Treasury news dominated the day from start to finish. The morning began with reports that the Treasury could tap its General Account to buy more bonds, while Bessent’s afternoon press conference outlined the administration’s plan to intensify economic pressure on Iran. Meanwhile, President Trump reignited trade tensions on multiple fronts, announcing new tariff moves targeting both Canada and China.

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Rates moved higher on today’s show, with all eyes on the 30-year Treasury yield as it climbed to a 19-year high amid growing concerns among global bond investors about rising government deficits and persistent inflation. We also break down a strong New York manufacturing report, with activity hitting a four-year high, while homebuilder confidence edged higher in August but remained near an 11-month low as elevated mortgage rates and home prices continue to weigh on demand.

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Mortgage rates moved lower after a better-than-expected inflation report showed producer prices holding steady in July. The encouraging inflation data has bond investors rethinking expectations for a potential Fed rate hike in September, especially as the labor market sends mixed signals. Friday’s weak jobs report pointed toward a slowdown, while jobless claims remain near historic lows. We also break down a disappointing 30-year Treasury auction and what it could mean for rates going forward.

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Mortgage rates were basically unchanged today as early optimism surrounding the war with Iran faded by the afternoon. There was some good news for bonds, however, with a strong 3-year Treasury auction and a solid household debt report. On the housing front, the news wasn't as encouraging, with existing-home sales falling to a four-month low.

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Today’s episode looks at growing pressure across energy, debt and monetary policy. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983, while concerns are mounting over the massive amount of debt being issued by both governments and the private sector. We also discuss President Trump denying that he frequently speaks with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and preview the inflation reports that could drive markets and mortgage rates in the days ahead.

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Mortgage rates moved lower for a second straight day as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled the U.S. may be close to an agreement that would restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about global energy supplies and helping push bond yields lower. Oil prices continued to retreat, giving markets another reason to breathe a little easier.

We also break down the latest JOLTS report, which showed the labor market remains resilient with job openings unexpectedly rising, a sign that hiring demand is still holding up. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks climbed to fresh record highs as investors welcomed improving geopolitical headlines and continued confidence in the economy.

In today’s episode, we’ll explain why mortgage rates improved despite a still-strong labor market, what a potential Strait of Hormuz agreement could mean for inflation and interest rates, and what homebuyers should be watching next.

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