Rates pulled back slightly on Thursday as Iran had not agreed to talks about a longer ceasefire, jobless claims rose slightly from last week's 7-year low, and mid and long-term consumer inflation expectations held steady despite a rise in short-term expectations.

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As reports of a possible peace deal between Iran and the US showed promise, oil prices fell, equity prices rose, and mortgage rates fell. In other news, private payrolls saw their best month since January 2025...

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Job openings fell slightly more than expected in March, but quits rose, giving us a mixed JOLTS report. The trade deficit rose slightly more than expected and the service sector fell slightly more than expected. While we got a lot of data, none of it really moved rates with the 10-year and 30-year both seeing a small drop.

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On Sunday, President Trump said he would protect certain ships in the Strait of Hormuz to bring some stability to the region. In response, Iran attacked US ships and UAE facilities, causing more instability, which caused oil prices to rise, which in turn pushed rates up. In other news, Jeanine Pirro decided not to appeal a judicial ruling against her subpoenas of the Federal Reserve, and whatever you do, do not bet on prediction markets unless you know what you are doing...

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It was a busy day for economic data! Economic growth was hotter than expected in the first quarter, inflation came in hotter than expected, and jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1969. However, none of this data moved the rates. Rates fell because oil markets calmed down after a spike on Wednesday. In other news, debt hit 100% of GDP and while that is not an issue now, it will be sooner than most people think...

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The Fed announced they were holding rates for the third straight meeting. However, there were four dissents. Stephen Mirran wanted a rate cut, but the other 3 were because they weren't happy with the statement. Housing starts jumped to a 14-month high, and durable goods orders were better than expected. However, none of that caused rates to jump; that was because of rising oil prices...

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Gas prices hit a 4-year high as Iran and the US seem no closer to a peace deal, and Iran is struggling to find somewhere to store its oil as the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues to work. The UAE announced they were leaving OPEC so they can produce more oil, consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped to a 6-month high, and home price growth fell to an almost three-year low.

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On Friday, the Department of Justice announced they were dropping the investigation into the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell, which allowed Senator Thom Tillis to drop his no vote in the banking committee to push Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the floor of the Senate for a full vote. In other news, consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level in 70 years, and it’s a busy week for data as four central banks across the globe will make rate decisions

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Jobless claims rise slightly and don't have a big impact on rates. Joseph C. Sternberg has a great piece in the WSJ about Kevin Warsh and his possible tenure at the Federal Reserve.

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Slow news days kept rates unchanged. Inflation in the U.K. rose as expected, mortgage demand jumped as rates fell to a 1-month low, and chaos in the Strait of Hormuz kept peace talks on ice between Iran and the U.S.

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