Last night was absolutely bananas. Two Game 3’s delivered and now we have the first WNBA semifinals matchup decided. Now, we get to find out who will meet the Minnesota Lynx on the other side of the bracket. If you want to catch up with any of what happened in the Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream/Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces games, our podcast is a recap of last night’s YouTube live. We’ll be back on this evening and throughout the playoffs so be sure to like, share and subscribe.

Phoenix Mercury @ New York Liberty

Series tied 1-1

9:00 PM ET, ESPN

A Quick Overview:

This game has a little bit of everything. Two storied franchises, at least one current MVP candidate up against a pair of past MVP winners, streaky shooters who can make or break a game, and plenty more. So naturally, I expect to see one hell of an environment in PHX Arena tonight. The Liberty managed to steal game one on the road after a missed Alyssa Thomas game winner at the end of regulation. From there, the series went to Brooklyn where the Mercury demolished New York to force a winner-take-all game three back in Arizona. As it stands, the game flow of this series has favored Phoenix but their opponent is still the defending WNBA champion. If Seattle taught us anything last night, it’s to not assume anything until the final buzzer.

Make-or-Break Matchup:

Each team has a single player that will make or break this matchup. Coincidentally, they both happen to be former college teammates at Oregon. Satou Sabally overcame a 2/17 game one performance with a 15 point, 7 rebound, 4 assist, 4 steal follow-up in the elimination game. In what was almost the exact inverse, Sabrina Ionescu went from a 16-6-7 line in game one to a 9 point dud at home on 3/13 shooting and 1/8 from three. It sure feels like whichever player shows up for their team is going to the team that advances.

Past the two of them, New York has to get more out of their two former MVP’s. Jonquel Jones has averaged 12.5 rebounds per game this series but just 7 points. Whatever has been happening since the start of September, the Liberty center has averaged single digit scoring. That will need to change in order for New York to have any shot at advancing.

Players To Watch (Phoenix):

DeWanna Bonner came off the bench and put up a respectable 14 point, 8 rebound line on 6/9 shooting. But the person I’m really interested to see tonight is Sami Whitcomb. The veteran sharpshooter is 3/14 over the last two games and just 3/10 from the beyond the arc. Granted, this is part of the ride with Whitcomb. Some days you might get nothing from her and on another night she can give you 15. If she heats up at all tonight, it could be trouble for the Liberty.

Much like last night felt a bit like an A’ja Wilson legacy game, Alyssa Thomas has a chance to have one here. Yes, it’s the first round of the playoffs but when we assess careers in the long term, elimination game performances matter. If she can deliver once again with Phoenix’s back against the wall, it’ll be another bright spot in what’s already been a hell of a career.

Players To Watch (New York):

What are New York’s big three prepared to do? You were embarrassed on your home floor in game two and now have to try and win on the road to keep the chance of repeating alive. You may not be able to count on Breanna Stewart to be 100% healthy but you need Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones. You can’t fall asleep in the second quarter and get completely routed the way that you did in game two.

New York won last year’s title fair and square. I don’t subscribe to the idea that losing this game further cheapens their ring last season. But I do think an exit here would leave me wanting especially when you consider the fanfare (driven by yours truly, no less!) around bringing Emma Meesseman after the All-Star game. This team was built to be able to meet these moments. It’s gotta happen here.

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