Happy New Year, loyal column readers! We at No Cap Space WBB hope you had a lovely holiday and new year. Plenty of resolutions, things to look forward to and actions to take in 2025 especially for us here on Substack. We’ve got a lot of great stuff coming down the pipeline this coming year and we can’t wait to share it all with you in due time.
In the meantime, enjoy a nice audio addition to the column. On Sundays, our team will be live on Youtube for what we’re calling ‘Tonight in Women’s Basketball’. It’s a working title, so it’s subject to change. But effectively it’s a wrap of the biggest games of the weekend and some true hoop analysis. That is followed up every Monday morning with this column which examines five big storylines in the past week of the sport and how those intersect with our broader culture. Then, on Tuesdays, you get ‘Ball Up Top: A WBB Podcast’ that takes three topics that are currently dominating the discourse in women’s basketball.
We’ve got something for everyone and that’s just the start. The Legendarium also returns from its’ winter break this Wednesday and there’s some upcoming features we’re really excited to bring you as well. But for now, let’s get to the column…
Complete this sentence: This is the most wide open Naismith WBB Player of the Year Race since _____ …
I’d say it was 2019. Each season we’ve had, at most, a two horse race for women’s basketball’s highest honor. In fact, you could make an argument that since 2007, we’ve only had a couple of seasons where the race hasn’t been somewhat predetermined. I mean, just look at the past winners.
2024: Caitlin Clark (2nd)
2023: Caitlin Clark
2022: Aliyah Boston
2021: Paige Bueckers
2020: Sabrina Ionescu
2019: Megan Gustafson
2018: A’ja Wilson
2017: Kelsey Plum
Prior to 2017, Breanna Stewart won three straight which was preceded by Brittney Griner winning two straight, Maya Moore winning two and Candace Parker as well as Tina Charles winning one. In short, there was a best player and we knew pretty early on who that would be. In 2018 and 2020, Wilson and Ionescu led the pack pretty much wire-to-wire. 2021-2024 was mostly two person races.
But this year? It feels a lot like 2019, in which you had Gustafson, Ionescu, Arike Ogunbowale and Asia (now AD) Durr named as finalists. Any one of them could have taken the award home that year and it feels like the field might be even deeper in 2025.
There’s NCAA leading scorer Ta’Niya Latson, who has scored less than 20 points in a game once this year and that came when she left after 11 minutes with an injury. She’s scored over 30 points six times through 15 games. Behind her on the list is Hannah Hidalgo, who has systematically ripped the soul out of damn near every top 25 team the Irish have played this year. Then there are stat stuffing superstars like LSU’s Aneesah Morrow (18.1 PPG, 14 RPG) and Vanderbilt’s Khamil Pierre (22.8 PPG, 10.9 PPG). Harvard senior Harmoni Turner is lighting the world on fire in the Ivy League. And that’s before we get to JuJu Watkins, the prohibitive favorite coming into this year. Or maybe Lauren Betts, the best player on the best team in America with the stats to match (19.8 PPG, 10 RPG). Paige Bueckers? Raegan Beers? The list is quite literally 10 deep.
The hardest challenge this year might not be in picking a Naismith winner but in picking finalists. It’s indicative of talent dispersal via NIL and the transfer portal (a net good for the game) but also how deep the pool of talent is getting in the sport, a result of the last decade of increased investment in women’s basketball at all levels. In short, the college game has never been in a better place than it is now and I can’t recall a more open race for the top player in America. That, in itself, is worthy of celebration.
Olivia Miles has made the leap and it suddenly makes the WNBA Draft very interesting…
Guys, it’s time to talk about Olivia Miles. The knock on the senior point guards’ game for years was whether or not she had the goods against top end competition. Even for the most ardent Miles stan, it was hard to defend when you looked at the numbers. In games vs. Top 25 opponents in 2022-2023, Miles was regularly under 15 points with low to mid efficiency shooting nights and hunted a bit defensively. The advanced analytics didn’t necessarily support the idea of her as a potential star at the next level.
What a difference a year makes.
In what is the greatest three point shooting glow up since Jackie Young magically came alive in Las Vegas, Miles has completely transformed herself from a near career 25% three point shooter to ripping off a ridiculous 48% clip 14 games into the season. With enough games for an effective sample, it appears that the range and deep ball efficacy is here to stay. What stood out to me in the Irish’s win over No. 17 North Carolina Sunday was the method in which she got her shots. These weren’t pick and pops or spot up threes. She was creating space off the dribble and hitting stepbacks with Lexi Donarski (a solid defender at this level) waving a hand in her face. It didn’t matter. Miles is playing with a confidence we haven’t seen her play with before.
And it opens up the question: does Curt Miller at least consider her at number one?
I know what you’re thinking.
“What a stupid hot take, Andrew. I come here for nuance not nonsense!”
But hear me out. Maybe I am truly nuts but I see shades of Arike Ogunbowale in Hannah Hidalgo. The pairing of Miles and the latter aforementioned ND superstar has paid dividends beyond belief. If you can get this kind of production out of Miles and make it work with a high energy, somewhat ball dominant guard, who is to say you can’t at the next level with arguably an upgraded version? The way she hits the lane and almost picks her passes in slow motion feels very Chelsea Gray-esque and I feel like the more I watch Miles play, the more that feels like the comp. Everything about Olivia’s game has improved and, had she not had an injury last year, I’d say it’s worth an even closer look given Paige Bueckers’ history with being sidelined herself. That’s not to neg Paige by any means. Instead, Miles is playing so well — and against top competition at that — that it’s worth warranting a bit more litigation at the top pick. Obviously there’s motion and marketing to consider but I’ll leave you with this: Miles is a fantastic personality, great with the media (check out our Luxury Tax episode with her to see firsthand) and already has something that can be branded and packaged. After all, who doesn’t love the goggles!?
Players have arrived in Miami for Unrivaled. What is the most exciting thing to watch for?
The players are in town, the jerseys have been unveiled and it’s time to get prepared for the inaugural season of Unrivaled. I personally can’t wait to see what’s in store. We’ve written pretty exhaustively about how the league’s business savvy is worth emulating if you’re a person working in the WNBA offices. The 3x3 league unveiled Sephora as the league’s official and exclusive beauty partner, also outfitting the league’s glam room. Opill, which is an over-the-counter contraceptive, will also be a league partner.
What I love about these additions is that they are exactly the kind of partnerships longtime WNBA fans have been clamoring for. Essentially, go find the brands that are utilized by your players, that they’ll be passionate about pushing and it will make for a seamless collaboration. Unrivaled seems to understand on a grass roots level what the fanbases are asking for and how to leverage that into marketing dollars. There’s something to be said about the comparative youth of the league’s executive management relative to the W’s and it’s being put on full display. If Unrivaled is a success in year one, I’d be throwing bags from the big orange to entice c-suiters in Miami to come to New York.
The games themselves are also going to be a lot of fun. The thing we’re going to explore in Ball Up Top and what I’m most curious about is what players games’ translate best to 3x3 and who might take a second to get acclimated. Ironically, the best player in this format isn’t going to be playing (Kelsey Plum) but I think there are others with 3x3 international experience like Dearica Hamby and Azura Stevens that are going to surprise some people with how dominant they can be. With an emphasis on player development, I’m also curious how that shows up on the court over the course of the protracted season. Will we see Angel Reese, for instance, work on her mid range jumper since the format is more conducive to trying it? The win for Unrivaled is it feels interesting on a number of levels. When you’re just trying to break into an already crowded American sports landscape, that’s a win before you even tip off the first game.
WNBA Free Agency “begins” on Saturday…
WNBA Free Agency starts on February 1st if you consider the starting point when players can officially sign contracts and offer sheets. But realistically, it begins on Saturday, the 11th. From that day until January 20th, teams can make qualifying offers and core certain players that they want to exclusively negotiate with. Expect players like Kelsey Mitchell of the Indiana Fever to get cored and set the stage for what free agency will look like moving forward.
The craziness will come with who doesn’t get cored, who wants to maximize a one year deal before the next collective bargaining agreement is signed and what qualifying offers are made. While I don’t expect top end players like Brittney Griner, Breanna Stewart or Kelsey Plum to change teams even for a season, I think the middle ground of the W is going to change substantially. Arguably the most interesting thing to watch in that nine day span is what the Connecticut Sun will do. They’ve got a really great young core in place and two aging superstars who, I would argue, have topped out in terms of their contributions. That’s not to say Alyssa Thomas and Dewanna Bonner can’t still lead a playoff contender but I think the championship window might be closed on them at this stage of their careers. Does Connecticut run it back for one more season or do they allow the duo to go to open market? My hot take is that depending on how competitive Golden State wants to be out of the gate, they could be an interesting fit for both to jumpstart a new franchise.
There’s also a good chunk of ‘reserved’ players — those who have less than three years of service and thus would negotiate exclusively with their previous team if given a qualifying offer — that can be legit pieces to any team. Veronica Burton, Emily Engstler, Natasha Mack and Li Yueru are on this list, for instance.
With interest in the W at an all-time high, expect plenty of discussion over the course of the next month. It’s gonna be a doozy.
The System vs. The Player: Where the column stands on the Dawn Staley - Milaysia Fulwiley discourse.
So I’ve started to see this discourse pop up since the UCLA vs. South Carolina game online and, admittedly, I’ve contributed to it a bit myself. Those that have watched South Carolina this year have been expecting Milaysia Fulwiley to fully break out and assert herself as a player on the level of a Hannah Hidalgo or JuJu Watkins. After all, she really is the third figure in that high powered recruiting class. But, unlike the previous two, Fulwiley has been mainly playing a bench role for South Carolina, having some good games and some quiet games here and there. In spite of that, the Gamecocks are back to being the war machine that they’ve been the past four-plus years and will likely be right back in the national title conversation.
So who is right here?
It turns out, everyone and no one. Because when it comes to South Carolina, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. The system vs. the star is quietly one of the major schisms in sports fandom that divide a lot of our values and viewpoints.
Do I personally want to see Fulwiley unleashed? Where she may play you out of certain possessions because of lax defense or a turnover but can make you double take with an insanely acrobatic finish at the rim or a dime to set up a three on the perimeter? Absolutely. To me, Fulwiley is one of the most exciting players in women’s college basketball so of course I, the consumer without a vested rooting interest in South Carolina’s success, want to see that. But just because that’s what I want doesn’t mean that it’s best for the team.
Dawn Staley’s job is to win games and develop her players into future pros. She isn’t here to market kids and make the motion. Could she do that? Sure. But the system is what wins at South Carolina. Everyone eats, minutes go to the hot hands and those that commit to the system and to winning are rewarded. Fulwiley, for her part, is a hardworking player with her own agency. A lot of women’s basketball fans want her to transfer because they want to see her cook but it’s pretty clear that Milaysia wants to stay at SC, learn under Staley and be a better version of herself as a player. Folks trying to force a transfer (partly because they don’t like South Carolina too) are going to be disappointed because she isn’t going anywhere.
The trick of this dance is that South Carolina fans also have to understand that player motion and system is an either/or proposition in today’s world. Criticism of ‘Dawn Staley is the star of the program’ is kind of b******t considering we never levied that same critique on Roy Williams or Bill Self, who are multi time national champions that don’t have a ton of bonafide NBA or NCAA superstars to point to. I mean, Tyler Hansborough is one of the most accomplished players in UNC history. Systems exist and in those systems, coaches fit players into it and they win a ton of games. Staley isn’t unique in that way and frankly doesn’t warrant the criticism for doing what successful coaches have been doing for decades.
But within that, fans need to understand that it does mean the potential for diminished publicity for their players. Caitlin Clark or JuJu Watkins is the system. Hannah Hidalgo is allowed to play through her mistakes. That may not mean a championship ring in April but it does mean some more column inches or talk show minutes. If you have a system like this that values the whole, it means you’re going to win but potentially at the cost of superstardom. Sometimes it feels that the only thing acceptable for some in the Gamecock fanbase is to have *everything*. When you’ve seen UConn receive that same treatment for years, it’s an understandable impulse when it’s your team at the mountaintop and you don’t receive the same promotion. But ultimately, it wasn’t good for the game when UConn dominated the discussion to that degree. Was a post Pat Summitt world where the Huskies crushed everyone en route to four straight titles interesting basketball? I’d argue no. But it won. So what matters more? The ecosystem is more healthy now. That does mean there is more to go around and if the system prevails, you might have to be okay arguing rings while others argue motion. That’s just the way it goes. So, in that respect, there won’t necessarily be a situation in which you get *everything*.
It dovetails with the situation unfolding in Rutgers right now with Kiyomi McMiller, the uber talented Allen Iverson-like freshman guard who may on her way out of the program. She released an Instagram post on Sunday announcing she wouldn’t be playing against No. 4 USC and NJ.com later reported that it stemmed from a locker room altercation that occurred after the Scarlet Knights loss to Maryland. As we get back to the system vs. the player, this is an example of how it can go wrong in the latter situation. Rutgers doesn’t stand to win many games without McMiller but they haven’t necessarily been winning with her either. But she’s undeniably watchable and to some, that’s all that matters.
Like I said, it’s in the eye of the beholder. What each side needs to know is that they need each other. System fans need fans that prioritize players to be able to drive engagement towards the game in a crowded ecosystem. But player fans need the system folks to be able to provide champions and dynasties that drive the same type of discussion. In this case, everyone has a point and, past it all, Dawn Staley keeps winning and winning and winning. Tough gig.
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