The NCAA Tournament is underway and we had a lot happen in the world of women’s basketball this week. We had just a couple upsets but a lot of great stories, some good ethical hate and some coaching changes as well.
For those that are still looking for end-of-day content, we have nightcap wrap up shows on YouTube for every day of games. You can find that on our YouTube page where we just passed over 3,000 subscribers. Thanks a ton to everyone that has tuned in and tapped in with us over the years!
Our wrap show is attached here as a podcast for everyone to listen to whenever you want to as we get into another 12 hour slate of games today. Now, let’s get to the column!
1. Women’s March Madness should move to neutral sites for the first two rounds and I’m tired of it being treated like a hot take
I’m somewhere between Mugatu taking crazy pills in Zoolander and the Joker saying “I’m tired of people saying it’s not”. Folks, we have evolved past the need for home site matchups and the only people left arguing for it seem to be fanbases who ostensibly benefit from it because they never actually have to travel.
I’m going to lay out five reasons why I feel like we’re ready for this. It’s time.
* From an aesthetic and production standpoint, I’m sick of the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament looking like an NIT. The March Madness logo slapped on a team’s home floor does absolutely nothing for me. It certainly doesn’t make me feel like I’m officially watching the NCAA Tournament. Call it superficial but I do believe these things matter subconsciously to viewers and fans.
* There’s a fair argument over travel and suitable host sites for the first two rounds (I mean, we’re in Birmingham and Spokane this year for God’s sake) but how accessible are some of these home sites? We got lucky this year with South Bend and Baton Rouge being the only two tough ones. But in the past we’ve had to contend with Starkville, Oxford, Blacksburg, Bloomington, Ames, the list goes on. Again, this is great for local fanbases but this tournament, respectfully, isn’t about you guys. March Madness is an event that, to me, is built to capture national interest in the sport. There is an entire regular season to see your team.
* I also don’t love that home sites are primarily built around a single program when there are four teams present. You may burn some fans if you put a first round in Denver, for instance, but a big draw for March in your city is that you pay a ticket and just get to go watch anybody hoop. I was in Sacramento during the 2023 men’s tournament and I can tell you firsthand that fans there for other teams became Princeton fans over the course of two days. You miss that at home venues. They have their team and they’re staying with them.
* It creates an environment where the women’s tournament doesn’t feel like it has that mainstream juice until the Sweet 16. Maybe that’s by design — let the men’s tourney hold court the first weekend and then the women take over — but it’s a risky proposition if the men have a year like this one when a lot of the biggest brands are still in the mix.
* And finally, I don’t think the sport should be governed by fear of ridicule anymore. At this point, why should any of us care? There will always be an adjustment period for people to come out to the opening two rounds but not making that choice out of fear of a lack of crowd is ignoring the fact that not even every top 16 team draws well in their own arena anyway. It may take a year or two to catch on but I’d rather get that out of the way now than continue to push it past.
2. Larry Vickers hire solidifies that the HBCU pipeline is very real in women’s college basketball
Larry Vickers move to Auburn from Norfolk State was a seismic one when you consider the implications to the HBCU coaching pipeline. In a lot of ways, it solidified that the mobility offered by those jobs is as good as any other mid-major program. In just four years, we’ve seen Vanessa Blair-Lewis move from Bethune-Cookman to George Mason, Tomekia Reed from Jackson State to Charlotte and now Vickers from Norfolk State to Auburn. That’s two mid-majors and a high-major with a significant history of success in women’s college basketball.
There is a question about what it means for HBCU coaches on a more complex level. As highlighted in prior stories, there is a belief among some that to be a coach at a school like that is almost to understand that you are there for a greater purpose than just your career. To take on a job like that has a nobility and an altruism in it given the funding gaps and disparities that exist between HBCU’s (historically black colleges and universities) and PWI’s (predominantly white institutions). But at the same time, if that upward mobility is offered then it creates an environment where you can do better by the kids by getting better coaches. It also means that schools can find success that can achieve some semblance of economic gain for the university writ large.
It may not lead to a massive wave of coaching hires but a power four taking a shot on Vickers tells me that there is a consideration that success in the SWAC or MEAC isn’t qualified anymore. If you win in those leagues, you are a winner and deserve a shot at a better job. If he manages to achieve success on the Plains, then expect more people to look towards HBCU’s for their next head coach. That, to me, is a win for everyone even if there is a complexity to it.
3. Can revenue sharing concepts keep head coaches at their mid-major programs? It’s something to keep an eye on.
I was thinking a lot about this when it appeared that Molly Miller wouldn’t be going to Arkansas. We know now that Arizona State was instead the choice but in the moment I wondered if GCU was able to offer her a sweet enough deal to be able to stick around for a little while longer.
With the incoming House settlement that will allow players to fully be paid and a revenue sharing model implemented in collegiate sports, the concept of which program gets what slice of the pie is going to be a fascinating story going forward. In some ways, we’ve seen it play out in the past with certain university presidents and athletic directors deciding that women’s hoops is a priority for the school. Old Dominion and Louisiana Tech are two such examples who enjoyed unparalleled runs of dominance from the late 1970’s all the way up to as recently as the early 2000’s. There are places that we would call ‘basketball schools’ — like Gonzaga or San Diego State on the men’s side — but not any true WBB schools at this current point in time.
As revenue sharing becomes a story that will change how athletic departments handle their business, I’m curious if some places decide to throw their weight behind women’s hoops. Which creates an interesting discussion about coaches and what they want to stay and do. If you’re at a mid-major, for instance, that doesn’t offer football and instead is willing to give you a higher share of a smaller budget, is that actually better than going to a power four that is only handing you one or two percent of a bigger pie? When I look at Carly Thibault-DuDonis at Fairfield, for instance, that’s what I see. Why go to Wisconsin when you know you’re going to be taken care of in the future here?
Of course, the typical factors remain: salary, assistant pool, recruiting budget, facilities and more. But the revenue sharing piece of this is a really interesting subplot to watch and I wonder if it has the chance to be something of an equalizer for schools that want to make it a priority to advance women’s basketball at their schools.
4. The lack of mid-major upsets feels like a post-COVID market correction
I’ve seen a lot on the men’s and women’s side of the tournament about how the predictability of the last couple years has been a result of NIL and the transfer portal decimating mid-majors and allowing the richest programs to simply get richer. While I would agree that those two concepts play a significant role, I also think we’re forgetting another component: this is a post COVID market correction. Allow me to explain…
In the two to three seasons following the pandemic, a ton of upperclassmen had the ability to take fifth and sixth years of eligibility because of the blanket waiver provided by the pandemic. Mid-majors were able to load up on talent while maintaining some of the best players in program history for another season. Take 2022, when South Dakota’s Hannah Sjerven was a sixth year senior and helped lead the team to a Sweet Sixteen appearance. While that had the upfront benefit of giving your team a shot to make the second weekend or upset a higher seeded high-major, it caused roster congestion. Some top mid-major players transferred out of their programs out of a lack of playing time or staying behind stars that had taken one more year than anticipated. It also pulled away playing time, development and an opportunity for younger athletes to be able to get their own chance to gain valuable late season experience.
In the women’s game, I think the gap between high major players and mid major players is still substantial because the difference in athleticism is much more than it is in the men’s game. Over there, you can just be a good athlete without being a great basketball player and that can help overcome disparities come March. In our game, the athletic gap coupled with the skill issue makes the first and second round a daunting proposition for any mid-major that doesn’t have substantial experience. And as we are finally fully out of the realm of experience being the great equalizer, mid-major coaches will need to find something else.
5. A quick Monday preview of the matchups ahead…
Because of Five Out, our Ball-Knower’s Daily Watch Guide won’t be going out today. But surprise! That means you get it here. These are somethings I’m looking for in each of the games ahead…
I have Michigan State upsetting NC State in my bracket. I love this Spartan team and while they can run very hot and cold, they have a good complement of shooters, length and defending that can hang with this incredible guard group that the Wolfpack have. Beyond that, they’re gritty and can handle a lot of in-game adversity. The team that doesn’t get tight is the team I like in these tournaments.
Texas feels like they’re rolling but I want to see how they handle a plucky Illinois team that has given more than a couple top end programs their share of fits this season. A lot of people want that Tennessee vs. Texas rematch and I would classify myself as one of them. But I’m not counting the Illini out wholesale just yet and you shouldn’t either.
Ava Heiden vs. Raegan Beers sounds like a very fun matchup along with the Hawkeye - Sooner backcourt battle we’re about to see. If there’s any chance of an upset today, I think it’s in the 6 vs. 3 games. What I’m most curious about is if OU fans can sell out the Lloyd Noble Center. This would be the year for it.
Alabama vs. Maryland feels the most electric of any matchup. There are shooters and there will be pace. Sarah Ashlee Barker vs. Kaylene Smikle is one of the best pure scorer matchups of the season.
Once again, the question of how 100% Aneesah Morrow and Flau’jae Johnson are will matter especially against this Florida State teams. Makayla Timpson is an effort rebounder in the same way Morrow is and Ta’Niya Latson is a scorer. I would love to see Latson get a shot at a Sweet Sixteen here but we’re in the PMAC for this so anything goes.
West Virginia vs. North Carolina is going to be some nasty hoops in the same way Alabama vs. LSU football circa 2007 was nasty football. Expect some hard nosed defense on both ends of the floor and no basket is going to come easily. But I’m psyched to see if we get a JJ Quinerly legacy game in Chapel Hill.
Both of the back end games for UConn and USC don’t feel in jeopardy of upset but I think the question is how good they look in their games. The Women of Troy got started a little slow against UNC Greensboro before taking the reins and running away with the game. The Huskies look like world beaters and that continues what we’ve come to expect.
It’ll be a great day and hang with us on YouTube later in the night for another nightcap on No Cap!
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