World Focus from Brussels

Today 29 March, is the fourth anniversary of World Focus from Brussels. Looking back the world has changed dramatically since the first episode went on line 29 March 2021. However, one thing has not changed. The President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is still in power and has only tightened his grip, brutally repressing Belarusians and holding elections that are neither free or fair. Those who are fighting for democracy in Belarus are either in prison or in exile. One of the exiled is Vitaliy Molchanov whom I interviewed during the Lampa conversation festival in Latvia in the summer of 2023. Vitaliy is a courageous man who believes that one day Belarus will be free. He works for, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the leader of the Belarusian opposition, who is also in exile. In the episode we also hear clips from some of her speeches, demonstrating how she is encouraging the world to join Belarusian in this difficult struggle, always believing that democracy and freedom will triumph over dictatorship and repression 

Leaders of the European Union meet in Brussels on 20 March to discuss security and defence, following the introduction of a White Paper on European Defence - Readiness 2030. Many allied military leaders are also meeting today in Northwood HQ in the UK. In Germany the incoming new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz is wasting no time to implement his plans on boosting defence. In this episode I interview Rainer Wenning, a Lt. Colonel in the reserves of the Germany military, Bundeswehr. He has a long experience in serving his country, including in the NATO multinational battlegroup in Lithuania, led by Germany. We speak about crucial challenges in making Germany and the whole of Europe ready to defend against and deter Russia, the importance of supporting Ukraine and how the transatlantic bond, is now under immense pressure. 

Greenlanders voted for a parliament on 11 March. This tiny nation living on the largest island in the world has been pushed into the global spotlight following Donald Trump's repeated comments that he wants to make the country a part of the United States.  Greenland was a colony of Denmark for 300 years, currently has self-rule but is still part of the Kingdom of Denmark. In this episode I interview Vilborg Ása Guðjónsdóttir, an Icelandic expert in international affairs who was in Greenland to follow the elections. We speak about the results, talks to form a new government, the relationship with Denmark and of course Donald Trump. Last night, 13 March, the US President tried to enlist Mark Rutte the General Secretary of NATO to help him in his mission, during Rutte’s visit to the White House. Speaking to reporters Trump was confident that US would be able to annex Greenland.

Drones have become increasingly important on the battlefields of the Russia-Ukraine war, as three years have recently passed from Russia's full-scale invasion. In this episode I interview Ole Kværnø, a retired Danish Brigadier General now the director of the Danish Centre for Defence Robotics and Autonomy. He says we are witnessing a military revolution, adding that innovation, matched with mass productions of drones, will be the deciding factor in who wins or loses this war on the frontlines. A war which has killed and wounded more than a million soldiers in all, according to Ukrainian and Western estimates. To underline the point made by Ole Kværnø, drones now kill more soldiers and destroy more armoured vehicles in Ukraine than all traditional weapons of war combined, including sniper rifles, tanks, howitzers and mortars, according to Ukrainian commanders and officials.  NATO’s highest military officials are also drawing their lessons. “The war is a mix of World War I and World War III — what could be a future war,” NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander for Transformation, Admiral Pierre Vandier of France told the New York Times. The Russia-Ukraine war has therefore become a war of drones, a deadly cat and mouse game, playing out every single day.  This is a compelling interview with Ole Kværnø who was recently in Ukraine and has seen first hand how Ukrainians are leading the way on the drone front.

See below the story about the appointment of Ole Kværnø as the director of the new Danish Drone Centre.

 https://www.sdu.dk/en/om-sdu/fakulteterne/teknik/nyt_fra_det_tekniske_fakultet/tidligere-brigadegeneral-ole-kvaernoe-bliver-direktoer-for-nyt-center-for-forsvarsdroner

In war zones of the world Artificial Intelligence already guides drones, is used in target selection, intelligence and surveillance, just to name a few examples. But how can AI affect decisions by political and military leaders to use military force in the first place?  In this episode I continue to focus on the conference "Military AI and the Resort to Force" in Copenhagen on 27 February which brought together legal academics, ethicists, members of the military, IR scholars and the wider public. Speakers and guests discussed the potential impact of autonomous weapons and AI-based decision support systems on the interstate use of force. The conference was organized by the Centre for Military Studies at the University of Copenhagen and in the episode I interview four speakers on crucial questions we face in this area. Those distinguished scholars are Elke Schwartz, Alexander Blanchard, Jessica Dorsey and Brianna Rosen.

See also the program of the conference:

https://cms.polsci.ku.dk/events/conference-military-ai-and-the-resort-to-force/

Military Artificial Intelligence is already shaping the character of modern warfare, for example in the battlefields of Ukraine and Gaza. The episode focuses on this new arms race and key challenges we face. I attended “Military AI and the Resort to Force,” a conference organized by Centre for Military Studies, Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen on 27 February. Multiple speakers grappled with crucial military, ethical, legal and political questions on the use of Military AI and it’s role in decision making by leaders. I interviewed Jack Shanahan, a retired United States Air Force Lieutenant General who the first Director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center at the Pentagon. He delivered the keynote speech at the conference. We discussed how AI military capabilities are evolving, questions of accountability and responsibility and much more. 

Allied leaders from Europe and Canada, have been in Kyiv today, 24 of February, demonstrating support for Ukraine at a Summit with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Three years have passed since the full scale invasion of Russia into this sovereign state in the heart of Europe. At the same time the US Trump administration seems to be embracing Russia, the aggressor, and President Donald Trump has called President Zelensky, “a dictator.”  US leaders are not in Kyiv today. America’s  support to Ukraine is therefore in serious doubt and the transatlantic bond underpinning NATO, is being challenged. Ukrainians have fought bravely, in fact for eleven years, and will continue to do exactly that –  to their last breath, as Óskar Hallgrímsson, an Icelandic war reporter and photographer in Kyiv told me. We speak about the decisions he and is Ukrainian wife, Marika, had to make on this fateful morning, 3 years ago, the horrors of war and the future of Ukraine. We also hear voices of Ukrainians I have interviewed on this podcast over the past 4 years. Finally I interview Alina Cherviatsova, an Ukrainian legal scholar from Kharkiv, now at the University of Ghent in Belgium. She is doing important work on the academic front and is deeply critical of President Trump 

Russia’s war on Ukraine has left death and destruction in its trail, as we approach three years from Russia’s full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022.  This is very much a “hot-war.” However, around the world multiple frozen and often forgotten conflicts are also impacting people’s daily lives, without getting into the global headlines. One of these conflicts evolves around Abkhazia in the South-Caucasus, which Russia and a handful of its closest Allies have recognized as an independent state. However Georgia and most other UN member states view Abkhazia as Georgian territory, occupied by Russia. 

In this episode I interview Dr. Görkem Aydemir-Kundakci the FWO Junior Postdoctoral Fellow, in the Department of Social and Cultural Anthropology at KU Leuven, who has been researching this frozen conflict. We also talk about other hotspots and conflicts in this very volatile region – about “everyday geopolitics” and how normal people try to get by under difficult circumstances. On 15-16 February KU Leuven, a university in the city of Leuven in Belgium, celebrated 600 years of history, opening its doors to the public and presenting the work multiple scholars in different disciplines. It is a great representation of the dynamic university community in Belgium, supported also by entities like FWO (Flanders Research Foundation). 

To find out more about the research of Dr. Görkem Aydemir-Kundakci

https://gorkemaydemir8.wixsite.com/aydemirkundakci

The Munich Security Conference started today 14 February in Germany, two days after US President Donald Trump pushed for peace in Ukraine by talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a 90 minutes phone call.  In Brussels US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth told NATO Allies and Partners supporting Ukraine, that it is unrealistic to return to the prewar borders from 2014 between Ukraine and Russia. He added that Ukraine’s membership in NATO would not be included in security guarantees for the country. This contradicts the pledge by NATO leaders at the Washington Summit from 2024  that Ukraine was on an  "irreversible path” to membership. The meeting of NATO Defence Ministers in Brussels on 13 February is the main focus of this episode but we also hear what Óskar Hallgrímsson, a war reporter who lives in Kyiv, thinks about the latest developments. 

This is indeed a new Munich moment, 18 years after Vladimir Putin addressed this major security conference in the German city saying it was time to "seriously think of the architecture of global security,"  The question is: Will Putin call the shots in a new age of strong man geopolitics? Or are European Allies, Canada, the US and NATO partners able and willing to defend the rules based international order, based on freedom and sovereignty of each nation.

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Sir Keir Starmer, met with Mr. Mark Rutte Secretary General of NATO in Brussel  on the 3 of February. They discussed defence spending and ongoing support for Ukraine, as we are approaching three years from Russia’s full scale invasion into Ukraine. The two leaders also participated in an informal meeting with leaders of the European Union member states, in Brussels, to discuss European defence. Mr. Starmer also attended a dinner in Egmont Palace where he became the first UK Prime Minister to address the European Council of EU leaders since Brexit. To talk about Starmer’s visit, the state of  the UK armed forces, European defence, support to Ukraine, Trump and transatlantic relations, I interviewed Keir Giles from the UK, a long-time Russia explainer and defence expert. His analysis goes beyond the headlines, sending a clear message to political and military leaders to put words into actions as we face a dangerous and divided world. Mr. Giles most recent book “Who will Defend Europe?” is excellent and for those who want to read it you can find a link in the show notes.

 https://amzn.to/4cFI1b6